Scheduling the EChO survey with known exoplanets

The Exoplanet Characterization Observatory (EChO) is a concept of a dedicated space telescope optimized for low-resolution transit and occultation spectroscopy to study the exoplanet diversity through the composition of their atmospheres. The scope of this paper is to answer the following question: Can we schedule a nominal EChO mission, with targets known today (in mid 2013), given the science requirements, realistic performances and operational constraints? We examine this issue from the point of view of duration of the mission and the scheduling restrictions with a sample of exoplanet systems known nowadays. We choose different scheduling algorithms taking into account the science and operational constraints and we verified that it is fairly straightforward to schedule a mission scenario over the lifetime of EChO compliant with the science requirements. We identified agility as a critical constraint that reduces significantly the efficiency of the survey. We conclude that even with known targets today the EChO science objectives can be reached in the 4.5 years duration of the mission. We also show that it is possible to use gaps between exoplanet observations, to fit the required calibration observations, data downlinks and station keeping operations or even to observe more exoplanet targets to be discovered in the coming years.     

Geostrophic Adjustment Problems in a Polar Basin

The geostrophic adjustment of a homogeneous fluid in a circular basin with idealized topography is addressed using a numerical ocean circulation model and analytical process models. When the basin is rotating uniformly, the adjustment takes place via excitation of boundary propagating waves and when topography is present, via topographic Rossby waves. In the numerically derived solution, the waves are damped because of bottom friction, and a quasi-steady geostrophically balanced state emerges that subsequently spins-down on a long time scale. On the f-plane, numerical quasi-steady state solutions are attained well before the system's mechanical energy is entirely dissipated by friction. It is demonstrated that the adjusted states emerging in a circular basin with a step escarpment or a top hat ridge, centred on a line of symmetry, are equivalent to that in a uniform depth semicircular basin, for a given initial condition. These quasi-steady solutions agree well with linear analytical solutions for the latter case in the inviscid limit.

On the polar plane, the high latitude equivalent to the β-plane, no quasi-steady adjusted state emerges from the adjustment process. At intermediate time scales, after the fast Poincaré and Kelvin waves are damped by friction, the solutions take the form of steady-state adjusted solutions on the f-plane. At longer time scales, planetary waves control the flow evolution. An interesting property of planetary waves on a polar plane is a nearly zero eastward group velocity for the waves with a radial mode higher than two and the resulting formation of eddy-like small-scale barotropic structures that remain trapped near the western side of topographic features.

RÉSUMÉ?Traduit par la rédaction] Nous étudions l'ajustement géostrophique d'un fluide homogène dans un bassin circulaire ayant une topographie idéalisée à l'aide d'un modèle numérique de circulation océanique et de modèles analytiques de processus. Quand le bassin est en rotation uniforme, l'ajustement se fait par l'excitation d'ondes de propagation aux limites, et en présence de topographie, par des ondes de Rossby topographiques. Dans la solution numériquement dérivée, les ondes sont amorties à cause frottement contre le fond, et un état quasi-stable géostrophiquement équilibré s’établit pour ensuite décélérer sur une longue période de temps. Sur le plan f, les solutions numériques d’états quasi-stables sont atteintes bien avant que l’énergie du système mécanique soit entièrement dissipée par le frottement. Nous démontrons que les états ajustés apparaissant dans un bassin circulaire avec un accore en forme de marche ou une crête en forme de merlon, centrés sur une ligne de symétrie, sont équivalents à ceux d'un bassin semi-circulaire de profondeur uniforme pour une condition initiale donnée. Les solutions quasi-stables s'accordent bien avec les solutions analytiques linéaires pour le dernier cas dans la limite de la non-viscosité.

Sur le plan polaire, la haute latitude équivalente au plan β, le processus d'ajustement n'aboutit à aucun état ajusté quasi-stable. Aux échelles de temps intermédiaires, après l'amortissement des ondes rapides de Poincaré et Kelvin par le frottement, les solutions prennent la forme de solutions ajustées d’états stables sur le plan f. Aux échelles de temps plus longues, les ondes planétaires déterminent l’évolution de l’écoulement. Une propriété intéressante des ondes planétaires sur un plan polaire est une vitesse de groupe presque nulle vers l'est pour les ondes ayant un mode radial plus grand que deux et la formation résultante de structures barotropiques de petite échelle de type remous qui demeurent emprisonnées près du bord ouest des caractéristiques topographiques.     

The droughts of 1997 and 2005 in Amazonia: floodplain hydrology and its potential ecological and human impacts

It is well known that most of the severe droughts in Amazonia, such as that of 1997, are El Niño-related. However, in 2005, the Amazon was affected by a severe drought that was not El Niño-related, as most of the rainfall anomalies that have happened in southwestern Amazonia are driven by sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic. Earlier studies have analyzed both droughts in terms of their meteorological causes and impacts in terra firme (non-flooded) forests. This study compares the hydrological effects of both droughts on the Amazonian floodplain and discusses their potential ecological and human impacts based on an extensive literature review. The results revealed that the effects of the 2005 drought were exacerbated because rainfall was lower and evaporation rates were higher at the peak of the dry season compared to the 1997 drought. This induced a more acute depletion of water levels in floodplain lakes and was most likely associated with higher fish mortality rates. Based on the fact that the stem growth of many floodplain species is related to the length of the non-flooded period, it is hypothesized that the 1997 drought had more positive effects on floodplain forest growth than the 2005 drought. The fishing community of Silves in central Amazonia considered both droughts to have been equally severe. However, the 2005 drought was widely broadcasted by the press; therefore, the governmental mitigation efforts were more comprehensive. It is suggested that the availability of new communication technology and greater public awareness regarding environmental issues, combined with the new legal framework for assessing the severity of calamities in Brazil, are among the primary factors that explain the difference in societal response between the two droughts.     

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.     

Multiperiodic semiregular variable stars in the ASAS data base: A pilot study

Based on a search for multi‐periodic variability among the semi‐regular red variable stars in the database of the All Sky Automated Survey (ASAS), a sample of 72 typical examples is presented. Their period analysis was performed using the Discrete Fourier Transform. In 41 stars we identified two significant periods each, simultaneously present, while the remaining 31 cases revealed even three such periods per star. They occur in a range roughly between 50 and 3000 days. Inter‐relationships between these periods were analyzed using the “double period diagram” which compares adjacent periods, and the so‐called “Petersen diagram”, the period ratio vs. the shorter period. In both diagrams we could identify six sequences of accumulation of the period values. For five of these sequences (containing 97 % of all data points) we found an almost perfect coincidence with those of previous studies which were based on very different samples of semiregular red variables. Therefore, existence and locations of these sequences in the diagrams seem to be universal features, which appear in any data set of semi‐regularly variable red giants of the AGB; we conclude that they are caused by different pulsation modes as the typical and consistent properties of similar stellar AGB configurations. Stellar pulsations can be considered as the principal cause of the observed periodic variability of these stars, and not binary, rotation of a spotted surface or other possible reasons suggested in the literature. (© 2014 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

The NLTE Formation of Iron Lines Used in Solar Polarimetry

We study in some detail one-dimensional NLTE effects in solar Fei lines. The lines selected are frequently used in solar polarimetry, and also in studies of line asymmetries and for abundance determinations. Our model atom for Fei–Feii–Feiii is realistic: it takes account of multiplet structure and it includes over 200 bound–bound and bound–free transitions in detail. We use very efficient iterative methods for the self-consistent solution of the kinetic and radiative transfer equations (Auer, Fabiani Bendicho, and Trujillo Bueno, 1994). We have applied these fast methods of solution because they are suitable for the investigation of 2D and 3D NLTE transfer effects with multilevel atoms, which constitutes the next step of our ongoing research project on the iron line formation problem.