A description of how metal pollution occurs in the Tinto-Odiel rias (Huelva-Spain) through the application of cluster analysis

In the last few decades, the study of space-time distribution and variations of heavy metals in estuaries has been extensively studied as an environmental indicator. In the case described here, the combination of acid water from mines, industrial effluents and sea water plays a determining role in the evolutionary process of the chemical makeup of the water in the estuary of the Tinto and Odiel Rivers, located in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula.Based on the statistical treatment of the data from the analysis of the water samples from this system, which has been affected by processes of industrial and mining pollution, the 16 variables analyzed can be grouped into two large families. Each family presents high, positive Pearson r values that suggest common origins (fluvial or sea) for the pollutants present in the water analyzed and allow their subsequent contrast through cluster analysis.     

The relation of meridional pressure gradients to North Atlantic deep water volume transport in an ocean general circulation model

We use a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model to study the relation between meridional pressure and density gradients in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. In several experiments, we artificially modify the meridional density gradients by applying different magnitudes of the Gent–McWilliams isopycnal eddy diffusion coefficients in the Southern Ocean and in the North Atlantic and investigate the response of the simulated Atlantic meridional overturning to such changes. The simulations are carried out close to the limit of no diapycnal mixing, with a very small explicit vertical diffusivity and a tracer advection scheme with very low implicit diffusivities. Our results reveal that changes in eddy diffusivities in the North Atlantic affect the maximum of the Atlantic meridional overturning, but not the outflow of North Atlantic Deep Water into the Southern Ocean. In contrast, changes in eddy diffusivities in the Southern Ocean affect both the South Atlantic outflow of North Atlantic Deep Water and the maximum of the Atlantic meridional overturning. Results from these experiments are used to investigate the relation between meridional pressure gradients and the components of the Atlantic meridional overturning. Pressure gradients and overturning are found to be linearly related. We show that, in our simulations, zonally averaged deep pressure gradients are very weak between 20°S and about 30°N and that between 30°N and 60°N the zonally averaged pressure grows approximately linearly with latitude. This pressure difference balances a westward geostrophic flow at 30–40°N that feeds the southbound deep Atlantic western boundary current. We extend our analysis to a large variety of experiments in which surface freshwater forcing, vertical mixing and winds are modified. In all experiments, the pycnocline depth, assumed to be the relevant vertical scale for the northward volume transport in the Atlantic, is found to be approximately constant, at least within the coarse vertical resolution of the model. The model behaviour hence cannot directly be related to conceptual models in which changes in the pycnocline depth determine the strength of Atlantic meridional flow, and seems conceptually closer to Stommel’s box model. In all our simulations, the Atlantic overturning seems to be mainly driven by Southern Ocean westerlies. However, the actual strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning is not determined solely by the Southern Ocean wind stress but as well by the density/pressure gradients created between the deep water formation regions in the North Atlantic and the inflow/outflow region in the South Atlantic.     

Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models

The uncertainties and sources of variation in projected impacts of climate change on agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems depend not only on the emission scenarios and climate models used for projecting future climates, but also on the impact models used, and the local soil and climatic conditions of the managed or unmanaged ecosystems under study. We addressed these uncertainties by applying different impact models at site, regional and continental scales, and by separating the variation in simulated relative changes in ecosystem performance into the different sources of uncertainty and variation using analyses of variance. The crop and ecosystem models used output from a range of global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs) projecting climate change over Europe between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 under the IPCC SRES scenarios. The projected impacts on productivity of crops and ecosystems included the direct effects of increased CO₂ concentration on photosynthesis. The variation in simulated results attributed to differences between the climate models were, in all cases, smaller than the variation attributed to either emission scenarios or local conditions. The methods used for applying the climate model outputs played a larger role than the choice of the GCM or RCM. The thermal suitability for grain maize cultivation in Europe was estimated to expand by 30–50% across all SRES emissions scenarios. Strong increases in net primary productivity (NPP) (35–54%) were projected in northern European ecosystems as a result of a longer growing season and higher CO₂ concentrations. Changing water balance dominated the projected responses of southern European ecosystems, with NPP declining or increasing only slightly relative to present-day conditions. Both site and continental scale models showed large increases in yield of rain-fed winter wheat for northern Europe, with smaller increases or even decreases in southern Europe. Site-based, regional and continental scale models showed large spatial variations in the response of nitrate leaching from winter wheat cultivation to projected climate change due to strong interactions with soils and climate. The variation in simulated impacts was smaller between scenarios based on RCMs nested within the same GCM than between scenarios based on different GCMs or between emission scenarios.     

Sequence stratigraphy of Holocene incised-valley fills and coastal evolution in the Gulf of Cádiz (southern Spain)

This first sedimentary interpretation of two incised-valley fills in the Gulf of Cádiz (southern Spain), which accumulated during the last fourth-order eustatic cycle in response to fluvial incision, changes of sea level, and correlative deposition, relates the filling of the estuarine basins and their barriers with four regional progradation phases, H₁ to H₄. The cases studied are the wave-dominated Guadalete, and the mixed, tide and wave-dominated Odiel-Tinto estuaries. The sequence boundary is a type-1 surface produced during the lowstand of the Last Glacial period ca. 18 000 ¹⁴C yr BP. No fluvial lowstand deposits were found in the area. Due to rapid transgression the valley fills consist of transgressive and highstand sediments. The maximum landward advance of the estuarine barriers occurred ca. 6500–6000 ¹⁴C yr BP during the maximum of the Flandrian transgression, but there is no evidence of sea level rising appreciably above the present. A large part of the estuaries was filled during H₁ (ca. 6500–4400 ¹⁴C yr BP) but ravinement by shifting tidal inlets destroyed most of the coeval barriers. During the H₂ phase (ca. 4200–2550 ¹⁴C yr BP) sedimentation was favoured by arid conditions and concentrated in the axial estuarine zones and the barriers. Between H₂ and H₃ prevailing winds changed from W to WSW, increasing spit growth to the east and south-east. Progradation of bay-head deltas and flood-plains during H₃ (ca. 2300–800 ¹⁴C yr BP) and H₄ (500 yr ago to the present) further reduced the accommodation space in the largely-filled valleys, and sediment by-passed the estuaries and accumulated in the estuarine barriers as fast-growing spits. Arid conditions and increasing human activity have caused rapid coastal modifications.     

An investigation of the small ice cap instability in the Southern Hemisphere with a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-terrestrial ice model

 A simple climate model has been developed to investigate the existence of the small ice cap instability in the Southern Hemisphere. The model consists of four coupled components: an atmospheric energy balance model, a thermodynamic snow-sea ice model, an oceanic mixed layer model and a terrestrial ice model. Results from a series of experiments involving different degrees of coupling in the model show that the instability appears only in those cases when an explicit representation of the Antarctic ice sheet is not included in the model. In order to determine which physical processes in the ice sheet model lead to a stabilization of the system we have conducted several sensitivity experiments in each of which a given ice sheet process has been removed from the control formulation of the model. Results from these experiments suggest that the feedback between the elevation of the ice sheet and the snow accumulation-ice ablation balance is responsible for the disappearance of the small ice cap instability in our simulation. In the model, the mass balance of the ice sheet depends on the air temperature at sea level corrected for altitude and it is, therefore, a function of surface elevation. This altitude-mass balance feedback effectively decouples the location of the ice edge from any specific sea level isotherm, thus decreasing the model sensitivity to the albedo-temperature feedback, which is responsible for the appearance of the instability. It is also shown that the elevation-radiative cooling feedback tends to stabilize the ice sheet, although its effect does not seem to be strong enough to remove the instability. Another interesting result is that for those simulations which include the terrestrial ice model with elevation-dependent surface mass balance, hysteresis is exhibited, where for a given level of external forcing, two stable solutions with different, non-zero ice-sheet volume and area and different air and ocean temperature fields occur. However, no unstable transition between the two solutions is ever observed. Our results suggest that the small ice cap instability mechanism could be unsuitable for explaining the inception of glaciation in Antarctica. Received: 14 April 1997 / Accepted: 22 October 1997     

Results from MAGIC’s first observation cycle on galactic sources

During its Cycle I (2005/2006), the MAGIC telescope targeted about 250 hours several galactic γ-ray sources detected previously by other experiments or expected to emit in the same energy domain. This paper reviews some results of such MAGIC observations. We cover, among others, supernova remnants, the Galactic Center and microquasars. We will concentrate on the recent discovery of very high energy γ-rays from the microquasar LS I +61 303.     

Integrability of motion around galactic razor-thin disks

We consider the three-dimensional bounded motion of a test particle around razor-thin disk configurations, by focusing on the adiabatic invariance of the vertical action associated with disk-crossing orbits. We find that it leads to an approximate third integral of motion predicting envelopes of the form \(Z(R)\propto [\varSigma (R)]^{-1/3}\), where R is the radial galactocentric coordinate, Z is the z-amplitude (vertical amplitude) of the orbit and \(\varSigma \) represents the surface mass density of the thin disk. This third integral, which was previously formulated for the case of flattened 3D configurations, is tested for a variety of trajectories in different thin-disk models.