A four-parameter,two degree-of-freedom block-spring model: Effect of the driver velocity

We analyze the effect of tectonic plate velocities in the earthquake pattern using a simple mass-spring model of the Burridge and Knopoff type with two blocks and a velocity-weakening friction law. Previous versions of the two-block model assume a steady driver during slip events (limit of zero driver velocity), which, in some cases makes necessary the introduction of artificial parameters to start the numerical integration of the equations of motion at impending slip of any block. Still maintaining the condition of zero driver velocity during slip, we shall introduce a procedure to start the numerical integration without introducing artificial parameters and this will be done by using a linearized version of the equations of motion valid for small velocities and considering nonzero driver velocity. We also introduce a four parameter model in which the driver velocity enters the equations during the whole simulation, and analyze the effect of the new parameter, the driver velocity, in the displacement and time patterns of blocks motion, directly related to earthquake statistics such as coseismic slips and average repeat times.     

Dynamics of lava flow fronts, Arenal Volcano, Costa Rica

Arenal Volcano has effused basaltic andesite lava flows nearly continuously since September, 1968. The two different kinds of material in flows, lava and lava debris, have different rheologic properties and dynamic behavior. Flow morphology depends on the relationship between the amount and distribution of the lava and the debris, and to a lesser extent the ground morphology.Two main units characterize the flows: the channel zone and the frontal zone. The channel zone consists of two different units, the levées and the channel proper. A velocity profile in the channel shows a maximum value at the plug where the rate of shear is zero, and a velocity gradient increasing outward until, at the levées, the velocity becomes zero. Cooling produces a marked temperature gradient in the flow, leading to the formation of debris by brittle fracture when a critical value of shear rate to viscosity is reached. When the lava supply ceases, much of this debris and part of the lava is left behind after the flow nucleus drains out, forming a collapsed channel.Processes at the frontal zone include levée formation, debris formation, the change in shape of the front, and the choice of the flow path. These processes are controlled primarily by the rheological properties of the lava.Frontal zone dynamics can be understood by fixing the flow front as the point of reference. The lava flows through the channel into the front where it flows out into the levées, thereby increasing the length of the channel and permitting the front to advance. The front shows a relationship of critical height to the yield strength (τ₀) surface tension, and slope; its continued movement is activated by the pressure of the advancing lava in the channel behind. For an ideal flow (isothermal, homogeneous, and isotropic) the ratio of the section of channel proper to the section of levées is calculated and the distance the front will have moved at any time t_x can be determined once the amount of lava available to the front is known. Assuming that the velocity function of the front {G(t)} during the collapsing stage is proportional to the entrance pressure of the lava at the channel-front boundary, an exponential decrease of velocity through time is predicted, which shows good agreement with actual frontal velocity measurements taken on two flows. Local variations in slope have a secondary effect on frontal velocities.Under conditions of constant volume the frontal zone can be considered as a machine that consumes energy brought in by the lava to perform work (front advancement). While the front will use its potential energy to run the process, the velocity at which it occurs is controlled by the activation energy that enters the system as the kinetic energy of the lava flowing into the front. A relation for the energy contribution due to frontal acceleration is also derived. Finally the entrance pressure, that permits the front to deform, is calculated. Its small value confirms that the lava behaves very much like a Bingham plastic.     

A Parametric Approach for Dealing with Compositional Rounded Zeros

In this work, a parametric approach for replacing data below the detection limit, also known as rounded zeros, in compositional data sets is proposed. Compositional rounded zeros correspond to small proportions of some whole that cannot be reliably detected by the analytical instruments under given operating conditions. This kind of zeros appear frequently in the data collection process in geosciences. They must be treated in an adequate way before some multivariate analysis can be applied. Our procedure results from a modification of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm and is based on the additive log-ratio transformation. Its coherence with the nature of compositional data and with basic operations in the simplex sample space is checked. Using real data sets, we find that this approach improves other parametric and non-parametric techniques for compositional rounded zeros.     

Cooling rate effect as a cause of systematic overestimating of the absolute Thellier paleointensities: A cautionary note

Cooling rate (CR) effects on the intensity of thermoremanent magnetization has been documented for archaeomagnetic materials, where cooling in laboratory conditions is generally much faster compared to natural cooling rates. Since the latter condition also applies to many volcanic rocks, we have investigated in this study the influences of the CR on the determination of absolute paleointensity using recent basaltic rocks. We used magnetically and thermally stable samples mainly containing Ti-poor pseudo-singledomain titanomagnetites (the most widely used material for Thellier paleointensity experiments). These samples previously succeed in retrieving the strength of laboratory field intensities with the Coe’s version of the Thellier method in a simulated paleointensity experiment using similar cooling rates. Our experimental results indicate that the cooling rate effects produce systematic and significant overestimates of the absolute intensity up to 70%. The effect can be much larger than predicted by Neél theory for non-interacting single-domain grains.     

NO2 total column evolution during the 1989 spring at Antarctica Peninsula

Ground-based visible differential absorption spectrometry during twilight has been used for NO₂ total column observations at the Antarctica Peninsula, Marambio Base (64S, 56W), during the austral spring of 1989 (9 September to 25 November).Results show moderate NO₂ vertical column levels of 1.5 to 2.5×10¹⁵ molec cm^-2 in the morning and 2 to 3×10¹⁵ molec cm^-2 in the evening until middle October, highly modulated by planetary wave activity. From that date until the end of the period, a steady increase occurs which is associated with the rising of lower stratosphere temperature as the vortex weakens, reaching values of 5×10¹⁵ molec cm^-2 in late November, with small a.m.-p.m. differences. NO₂ is found to be positively correlated to both total ozone and 50 hPa temperature during the entire spring. However, when analyzing the departures from linear trends, a highly negative correlation has been observed from day 301 onwards.     

A summary of sulfur dioxide emission rate measuremnts from Guatemalan volcanoes

Measurements of the sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emission rate from three Guatemalan volcanoes provide data which are consistent with theoretical and laboratory studies of eruptive and shallow magma chamber processes. In particular, unerupted magma makes a major contribution to the measured SO₂ emission rates at Santiaguito, a continuously erupting dacitic volcanic dome. Varying shallow magma convection rates can explain the variations in SO₂ emission rates at Santiaguito. At Fuego, a basaltic volcano currently in repose, SO₂ emission rate measurements are consistent with a high level magma body that is crystallizing and releasing volatiles. At Pacaya, a continuously erupting basaltic volcano, recent SO₂ emission rate measurements support laboratory simulation studies of strombolian eruptions; these studies indicate that the majority of gas escapes during eruptions and little gas escapes between eruptions.Average SO₂ emission rates over the last 20 years for Santiaguito, Fuego and Pacaya are 80, 160 and 260 Mg/d, respectively. On a global scale, these three volcanoes account for 1% of the annual global volcanic output of SO₂. Santiaguito and Pacaya, together, emit 6% of the total annual SO₂ emitted by continuously erupting volcanoes.Even though SO₂ measurements at these volcanoes have been made infrequently and by different investigators, the collective data help to establish a useful baseline by which to judge future changes. A more complete record of SO₂ emission rates from these volcanoes could lead to a better understanding of their eruption mechanisms and reduce the impact of their future eruptions on Guatemalan society.     

Synoptic and mesoaerological study of radiation fog

Summary The present study was for the purpose of determining the conditions necessary to the formation of radiation fog. The temperature and relative humidity of the lowest stratum of the troposphere were sounded with a tethered balloon and radiosonde during a number of nights when the conditions were considered favourable for the formation of radiation fog: clear weather with effective net radiation, light wind, and high relative humidity at ground level. Advection fog was also studied on some occasions for comparison. The measurements were carried out in Uppsala. Meteorological phenomena of possible importance to the study were recorded concurrently with the measurements. The weather was analyzed synoptically and aerologically also on each occasion.The results of the investigation suggest that the conditions necessary to the formation of radiation fog are not only an effective net radiation, light wind, and high relative humidity at ground level, but also that the wind must be light and the relative humidity high at some distance above the ground. This permits the more or less marked surface inversion to leave ground level and to rise as a layer of rapid temperature transition. This is brought about by the radiation gradually emitting from the upper surface of the layer of mist or fog, formed in the lowest and chilled air strata, which are subsequently cooled from above until an unstable lapse rate develops. As a results, the layer of rapid temperature transition is maintained rather intact as it rises. If the radiation continues without obstruction and the wind is ligh aloft, this layer migrates upwards until it reaches a level at which the relative humidity is so low that the cooling necessary for condensation does not occur by radiation, limiting the extension of the underlying fog. If the relative humidity is high only in the undermost air strata, the surface inversion cannot leave ground level and no fog will be formed aloft. If the wind is strong aloft, the process is hindered by the increased turbulent exchange occurring between the high and low strata.

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Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Untersuchung, die in Uppsala durchgeführt wurde, hat zum Zweck, die für die Bildung von Strahlungsnebel notwendigen Bedingungen festzulegen. Temperatur und relative Feuchtigkeit der untersten Troposphärenschicht wurden mit Fesselballon und Radiosonde während einer Anzahl Nächte ausgemessen, in denen die Bedingungen für die Bildung von Strahlungsnebel günstig erschienen, somit bei klarem Wetter mit effektiver Ausstrahlung, leichtem Wind und hoher relativer Feuchtigkeit am Boden. Zum Vergleich wurden auch einige Fälle von Mischungsnebel (Advektionsnebel) untersucht. Die Bestimmungen wurden in Uppsala durchgeführt. Gleichzeitig wurden auch weitere meteorologische Vorgänge, die für diese Untersuchung von Bedeutung sein konnten, aufgezeichnet. Zudem wurde das Wetter synoptisch und aerologisch bei jeder Gelegenheit un tersucht.Die Ergebnisse dieser Untersuchung legen die Annahme nahe, daß die für die Bildung von Strahlungsnebel not wendigen Bedingungen nicht nur in effektiver Ausstrahlung, leichtem Wind und hoher relativer Feuchtigkeit am Boden bestehen, sondern daß auch in gewisser Entfernung über dem Boden der Wind schwach und die Feuchtigkeit hoch sein muß. Dadurch wird es der mehr oder weniger ausgesprochenen Bodeninversion ermöglicht, das Bodenniveau zu verlassen und als Schicht eines schnellen Temperaturüberganges in die Höhe zu steigen. Dies wird bewirkt durch die Ausstrahlung, die allmählich von der Oberseite der Nebelschicht ausgeht, welche sich in den untersten und ausgekühlten Luftschichten bildet, die sich nach und nach von oben her abkühlen, bis sich ein instabiler Temperaturgradient entwickelt. Infolgedessen wird die Schicht des schnellen Temperaturübergangs beim Emporsteigen nahezu unverändert aufrechterhalten. Falls die Ausstrahlung ungehindert andauert und der Wind auch in der Höhe schwach ist, wandert diese Schicht aufwärts, bis sie ein Niveau erreicht, wo die relative Feuchtigkeit so niedrig ist, daß die für Kondensation notwendige Abkühlung nicht mehr durch die Ausstrahlung hervorgerufen wird, wodurch die Ausdehnung des darunter liegenden Nebels begrenzt wird. Wenn dagegen die relative Feuchtigkeit nur in den alleruntersten Luftschichten hoch ist, kann die Bodeninversion die Höhe des Erdbodens nicht verlassen und es bildet sich haher in der Höhe kein Nebel. Falls in der Höhe starker Wind weht, wird der Prozeß der Nebeldung durch die verstärkten Austauschvorgänge zwischen den hohen und den niederen Schichten verhindert.

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Résumé Le but de la présente étude faite à Uppsala est de déterminer les conditions de formation du brouillard de rayonnement. On a mesuré à cet effet la température et l'humidité relative des couches basses de la troposphère à l'aide de ballons captifs et de radiosondes pendant un certain nombre de nuits apparement favorables à la formation de brouillard, done par temps clair, vent faible et forte humidité au sol. Quelques cas de brouillard d'advection ont été aussi retenus à titre de comparaison. En même temps on a relevé d'autres processus météorologiuqes pouvant être utiles; la situation météorologique fit l'objet d'une analyse synoptique et aérologique dans chaque cas.Les résultats obtenus font penser que ce ne sont pas seulement le rayonnement, la faible agitation de l'air et la forte humidité relative au sol qui sont déterminants dans la formation du brouillard; le vent doit être faible et l'humidité élevée également à une certaine hauteur au-dessus du sol: c'est alors que l'inversion plus ou moins prononcée peut s'élever. Cela résulte du refroidissement par rayonnement de la surface du brouillard bas; la couche froide au sol augmente alors d'épaisseur jusqu'à ce qu'un gradient vertical instable apparaisse. La couche de décroissance rapide de température se maintient tout en gagnant vers le haut, et le processus ne s'arrête que lorsqu'un niveau à faible humidité est atteint; la couche de brouillard a alors acquis son épaisseur maximum. Si l'humidité relative n'est forte que dans les couches les plus basses, l'inversion ne peut par contre quitter le sol et il ne se forme pas de brouillard plus haut. S'il y a du vent fort a une certaine hauteur, le processus de formation du brouillard est rendu impossible par le brassage des couches basses et moyennes.

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With 12 Figures

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Dedicated to Dr.Anders K. Ångström on the occasion of his 70th birthday.     

Comparing performance indicators to characterize the water supply to the demands of the Guadiana River basin (Spain)

ABSTRACT

Water indicators and indices are useful tools to assess river basin performance, that is, to measure whether the basin operates satisfactorily under a wide range of possible future demands and hydrological conditions. Spanish regulations assess the performance of water demands by using reliability indicators (RIs), established by law in 2008. This article raises the possibility of updating RIs by comparing them with sustainability indicators (SIs). SIs are widely used for the assessment of river basin performance and several policy scenarios. We applied a water allocation model to the Guadiana River basin in Spain to compare indicators under three scenarios. The study was framed within the science of socio-hydrology, combining the physical environment of a water system with its influence on social aspects. SIs gave better results than RIs when comparing future scenarios. We also propose the introduction of a vulnerability indicator into Spanish regulations.