The inclusion of surface synoptic data in very short range predictions of convective events

Summary Predictor vectors, including upper air as well as surface data, were used for categorical forecasting convective events over a subregion of the Czech territory, and the effect of including surface variables in the predictor vector was examined. While upper air data were considered as Perfect Prognosis, the surface data were successively included according to the time of their origin. The forecasting technique was based on linear multiple regression with learning, and the accuracy of the forecast was measured by the Critical Success Index. The input data from the three May-September periods in 1989–91 were used, and the first year served as the learning set. The aerological data from TEMP 12 UTC, simulating Perfect Prognosis, were the source of the upper air predictors. The performance of all, upper air, surface and combined, predictors were evaluated and compared. It turned out that the improvement of prediction accuracy due to the inclusion of surface variables was not negligible. Significant improvements were made in the forecasts of thunderstorm occurrence between 18 and 24 UTC.     

Petrology and geochemistry of volcanic rocks of Aegina,Greece

The Plio-Pleistocene cale-alkalic lavas of Aegina are comparable geochemically with similar lavas from elsewhere in the South Aegean arc. At least four differentiation series, largely of basaltic andesite to rhyodacite type, have been recognized in Aegina. Petrographical and geochemical evidence shows that lavas and xenoliths have a common origin. The mineralogy of the rocks suggests an alternation of hydrous and dry conditions during their formation. The chemical composition of the basic rocks, and of basic cognate xenoliths in the lavas, suggest that the parent material of all the lavas was of basic composition. Fractionation of the early formed phases is believed to have been the main process for the formation of the more acidic differentiates.     

Quasigeoids for the Territory of the Czech Republic

Several quasigeoid models for the Czech Republic have been developed for different purposes since mid-seventies using different data sources: gravimetric, astronomical and GPS/levelling observations, as well as data gained from the territories of neighbouring countries. Two of the recent solutions, namely the VUGTK96 quasigeoid obtained from heterogeneous data and gravimetric quasigeoid CR2000 are described and compared. Accuracies of the models were estimated with the help of accuracy characteristics resulting from the processing, by comparison with GPS/levelling results available for most of the territory, and, finally, tested on a special GPS/levelling profile across the steepest slope of the quasigeoid surface in the south-eastern part of the territory. It is shown that the CR2000 gravimetric quasigeoid is suitable for transformation of ellipsoidal GPS heights to the gravity related heights with an accuracy of 3 cm.     

Plio-pleistocene paleomagnetic record from the Michoacán-Guanajuato Monogenetic Volcanic Field (Western Mexico)

The paleosecular variation (PSV) and polarity transitions are two major features of the Earth’s magnetic field. Both PSV and reversal studies are limited when age of studied units is poorly constrained. This is a case of Central and western Mexico volcanics. Although many studies have been devoted to these crucial problems and more than 200 paleomagnetic directions are available for the last 5 Ma, only few sites were dated directly. This paper presents new paleomagnetic results from seventeen independent cooling units in the Michoacán-Guanajuato Volcanic Field (MGVF) in western Mexico. Twelve sites are directly dated by ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar or K-Ar methods and span from 2.78 to 0.56 Ma. The characteristic paleodirections are successfully isolated for 15 lava flows. The mean paleodirection (inclination I and declination D) obtained in this study is I = 28.8°, D = 354.9°, and Fisherian statistical parameters are k = 28, α₉₅ = 7.3°, N=15, which corresponds to the mean paleomagnetic pole position P_lat = 83.9°, P_long = 321.6°, K = 34, A₉₅ = 6.6°. The paleodirections obtained in present study compiled with those, previously reported from the MGVF, are practically undistinguishable from the expected Plio-Quaternary paleodirections. The paleosecular variation is estimated through the study of the scatter of the virtual geomagnetic poles giving S_F = 15.9 with S_U =21.0 and S_L = 12.7 (upper and lower limits respectively). These values agree reasonably well with the recent statistical Models. The oldest sites analyzed (the Santa Teresa and Cerro Alto) yield normal polarity magnetizations as expected for the cooling units belonging to the Gauss geomagnetic Chron. The interesting feature of the record comes from lava flows dated at about 2.35 Ma with clearly defined normal directions. This may point out the possible existence of a normal polarity magnetization in the Matuyama reversed Chron older than the Reunion and may be correlated to Halawa event interpreted as the Cryptochron C2r.2r-1. Another important feature of the geomagnetic record obtained from the MGVF is the evidence of fully reversed geomagnetic field within Bruhnes Chron, at about 0.56 Ma corresponding to the relative paleointensity minimum of global extent found in marine sediments at about 590 ka.     

How do management alternatives of fast-growing forests affect water quantity and quality in southeastern Brazil? Insights from a paired catchment experiment

Fast-growing forest plantations have been expanding in Brazil in the last 50 years, which reach productivities by over 40 m³ ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in reduced rotation between 5 and 15 years. In the 1990s, environmental warnings about these plantations guided research projects seeking to understand their effects on water and propose forest management actions to minimize them. The assessment of forest management effects on water resources is conducted by long-term experiments in paired catchments. In this paper we present results of some studies conducted at the hydrological monitoring centre of Itatinga Experimental Forest Station, of the University of São Paulo, where hydrological monitoring began in 1987, and currently include three catchments (83–98 ha) under different forest management regimes: short-rotation Eucalyptus plantation, long-term forest plantation mosaic and native forest restoration. Results show that at similar conditions observed at study area including deep soils and good natural water regulation, hydrological effects vary according to the forest management regime adopted, increasing water consumption and making the flow regime vulnerable to intra- and inter-annual seasonality. Regarding water quality, weekly sampling results showed suspended sediments and nitrate concentrations below water quality thresholds criteria by silvicultural operations, and the effects were transient but higher concentrations of nutrients were observed in intensive management regime. In the study area, reducing the management intensity of forest plantation by increasing the rotation time, adopting forest age mosaic and avoiding the coppice technique are alternative choices that reduced water use and increased flow regulation. Different adopted forest management schemes directly affected water use, showing that in water-deficit tropical regions, management regime of fast-growing forest plantations controls water availability.     

The Høvsøre Tall Wind-Profile Experiment: A Description of Wind Profile Observations in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

We present an analysis of data from a nearly 1-year measurement campaign performed at Høvsøre, Denmark, a coastal farmland area where the terrain is flat. Within the easterly sector upstream of the site, the terrain is nearly homogenous. This topography and conditions provide a good basis for the analysis of vertical wind-speed profiles under a wide range of atmospheric stability, turbulence, and forcing conditions. One of the objectives of the campaign was to serve as a benchmark for flow over flat terrain models. The observations consist of combined wind lidar and sonic anemometer measurements at a meteorological mast. The sonic measurements cover the first 100 m and the wind lidar measures above 100 m every 50 m in the vertical. Results of the analysis of observations of the horizontal wind-speed components in the range 10–1200 m and surface turbulence fluxes are illustrated in detail, combined with forcing conditions derived from mesoscale model simulations. Ten different cases are presented. The observed wind profiles approach well the simulated gradient and geostrophic winds close to the simulated boundary-layer height during both barotropic and baroclinic conditions, respectively, except for a low-level jet case, as expected. The simulated winds are also presented for completeness and show good agreement with the measurements, generally underpredicting the turning of the wind in both barotropic and baroclinic cases.     

Chronic food limitation of egg production in populations of copepods of the genusAcartia in the San Francisco estuary

Egg production of planktonic copepods, is commonly measured as a proxy for secondary production in population dynamics studies and for quantifying food limitation. Although limitation of copepod egg production by food quantity or quality is common in natural waters, it appears less common or severe in estuaries where food concentrations are often high. San Francisco Estuary, California, has unusually low concentrations of chlorophyll compared to other estuaries. We measured egg production rates of three species ofAcartia, with dominate the zooplankton biomass at salinity above 15 psu, on 36 occasions during 1999–2002. Egg production was determined by incubating up to 40 freshly collected individual copepods for 24 h in 140 ml of ambient water. Egg production was less than 10 eggs female⁻¹ d⁻¹ most of the year, but as high as 52 eggs female⁻¹ d⁻¹ during month-long spring phytoplankton blooms. Egg production was a saturating function of total chlorophyll concentration with a mean of 30 eggs female⁻¹ d⁻¹ above a chlorophyll concentration of 12±6 mg chl m⁻³. We take chlorophyll to be a proxy for total food ofAcartia, known to feed on microzooplankton as well as phytoplankton. These findings, together with long-term records of chlorophyll, concentration and earlier studies of abundance of nauplius larvae in the estuary, imply chronic food limitation ofAcartia species, with sufficient food for maximum egg production <10% of the time over the last 25 yr. These results may show the most extreme example of food limitation of copepod reproduction in any temperate estuary. They further support the idea that estuaries may provide suitable habitat forAcartia species by virtue of other factors than high food concentration.     

Cyclical salt efflorescence weathering: an invisible threat to the recovery of underground mine environment for tourist exploitation

Enhancing the value of an underground mine environment for tourist exploitation involves altering the physico-chemical balance of stone materials whose original mechanical properties guaranteed the structural stability of the site’s galleries and chambers. Humidity and temperature changes caused by the public exhibition of this kind of assets are the main causes of such disorders. After the intervention in the Agrupa-Vicenta mine in La Union (Spain) there were still runoff-water leaks into the mine. These water runoffs through the fault and schistosity planes of the enclosing rock mass give rise to salt precipitation over time. Adapting this mine and turning it into a museum have meant a decrease in relative indoors humidity and an increase in temperature. These variations have caused rocks, which were stable in the original conditions, to increase their rate of physico-chemical weathering due to the polycyclic supergene alteration of the metal sulfides they contain. The resulting release of sulfates into the solution and their subsequent precipitation as single and double salt efflorescence causes haloclasty, deteriorating the rock’s mechanical properties and diminishing the structural stability of the operation. This paper presents the results of characterizing the supergene mineral phases of salt efflorescence in the rock bed enclosing an underground sulfide mine value enhanced for tourist exploitation. Dangers for the structural stability of this type of architectural intervention, associated to the formation of efflorescences, are also identified; these efflorescences are caused by the weathering of rocks that make up its supporting structure.     

Rainfall variability and hydrological and erosive response of an olive tree microcatchment under no‐tillage with a spontaneous grass cover in Spain

Most studies on runoff and soil loss from olive orchards were performed on plots, despite the fact that measurements that examine a range of erosive processes on different scales are essential to evaluate the suitability of the use and soil management of this type of land. The main environmental limitations of much of the land used for olive orchards in the Mediterranean are the steep slopes and the shallow soil depth – and this was the case in the study area. Soil erosion and runoff over two hydrological years (2005–2006 and 2006–2007) were monitored in an olive orchard microcatchment of 6·1 ha under no‐tillage with spontaneous grass in order to evaluate its hydrological and erosive behaviour. Moreover, soil parameters such as organic matter (%OM), bulk density (BD) and hydraulic saturated conductivity (Ks) were also examined in the microcatchment to describe management effects on hydrological balance and on erosive processes. In the study period, the results showed runoff coefficients of 6·0% in the first year and 0·9% in the second. The differences respond to the impact of two or three yearly maximum events which were decisive in the annual balances. On the event scale, although maximum rainfall intensity values had a big influence on peak flows and runoff, its importance on mean sediment concentrations and sediment discharges was difficult to interpret due to the likely control of grass cover on volume runoff and on soil protection. In the case of annual soil erosion, they were measured as 1·0 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1 and 0·3 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1. Both are lower than the tolerance values evaluated in Andalusia (Spain). These results support the implementation of no‐tillage with spontaneous grass cover for sloping land, although the reduced infiltration conditions determined by Ks in the first horizon suggest grass should be allowed to grow not only in spring but also in autumn. In addition, specific measurements to control gullies, which have formed in the terraced area in the catchment, should be included since it is expected that they could be the main sources of sediments. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forward stratigraphic modelling of sediment pathways and depocentres in salt‐influenced passive‐margin basins: Lower Cretaceous,central Scotian Basin

Source‐to‐sink studies and numerical modelling software are increasingly used to better understand sedimentary basins, and to predict sediment distributions. However, predictive modelling remains problematic in basins dominated by salt tectonics. The Lower Cretaceous delta system of the Scotian Basin is well suited for source‐to‐sink studies and provides an opportunity to apply this approach to a region experiencing active salt tectonism. This study uses forward stratigraphic modelling software and statistical analysis software to produce predictive stratigraphic models of the central Scotian Basin, test their sensitivity to different input parameters, assess proposed provenance pathways, and determine the distribution of sand and factors that control sedimentation in the basin. Models have been calibrated against reference wells and seismic surfaces, and implement a multidisciplinary approach to define simulation parameters. Simulation results show that previously proposed provenance pathways for the Early Cretaceous can be used to generate predictive stratigraphic models, which simulate the overall sediment distribution for the central Scotian Basin. Modelling confirms that the shaly nature of the Naskapi Member is the result of tectonic diversion of the Sable and Banquereau rivers and suggests additional episodic diversion during the deposition of the Cree Member. Sand is dominantly trapped on the shelf in all units, with transport into the basin along salt corridors and as a result of turbidity current flows occurring in the Upper Missisauga Formation and Cree Member. This led to sand accumulation in minibasins with a large deposit seawards of the Tantallon M‐41 well. Sand also appears to bypass the basin via salt corridors which lead to the down‐slope edge of the study area. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the grain size of source sediments to the system is the controlling factor of sand distribution. The methodology applied to this basin has applications to other regions complicated by salt tectonics, and where sediment distribution and transport from source‐to‐sink remain unclear.