On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources

The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.     

Use of suppressive subtractive hybridization and cDNA arrays to discover patterns of altered gene expression in the liver of dihydrotestosterone and 11-ketotestosterone exposed adult male largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides)

In this study male largemouth bass (LMB) were exposed to the naturally occurring androgens, dihydrotestosterone (DHT) or 11-ketotestosterone (11-KT) in order to identify genes that are differentially regulated by these steroid hormones. Using subtractive hybridization on livers of fish treated with DHT against vehicle control, many novel LMB genes were cloned. These genes were added to our gene library and arrayed. Six genes were up-regulated and five were down-regulated by both androgens. But, each androgen also regulated specific genes. One gene that was identified as a potential androgen marker was spermidine-spermine-N(1)-acetyltransferase that was up-regulated by both androgens. Determining which genes are responsive to natural androgens will help to identify biochemical pathways that are impacted.     

A wave model for the Great Barrier Reef

A new wind wave generation model, WAMGBR, is presented that has been adapted from WAM especially for use in the complex geometry of the Great Barrier Reef. A technique (reef parameterization) has been presented that incorporates sub-grid scale dissipation caused by coral reefs. Three other improvements to WAM have been proposed. An explicit/implicit finite difference scheme has been implemented that allows for more efficient modelling (longer time steps) while maintaining diffusive characteristics that are at least as good as those of WAM. An offset in discrete angles creates more uniform diffusive characteristics. And, a transformed spherical coordinate system allows for more efficient grid sizes and smaller grid dependent refraction. Comparisons between modelling techniques and between model and measured data show that WAMGBR produces very good results in the difficult challenge of modelling both non-cyclonic and tropical cyclone waves in the geographically complex environment of the Great Barrier Reef.     

Development and deployment of a stable tow body

With the introduction of improved underwater transducers, there is a need for a stable tow body for oceanographic measurements. This paper summarizes the development of a 260 kg, 1.83×1.06×0.81 m tow body. It covers the performance requirements, the tow body design and manufacture as well as its tow trials off of Biloxi, Mississippi aboard the R.V. Tommy Munro.     

Clam community composition and prey shell size impacts moon snail (Gastropod: Naticidae) drilling frequencies in South Carolina,USA

Moon snail predation on clams is a common model system of predator–prey interactions. In this system, the predator bores through the shell of its prey, leaving a distinct and identifiable hole. Some paleoecological and behavioral research on moon snails suggests a trend in predation preference directed toward clams with small shells. Rarely, however, have studies tested relative drilling frequencies across species and size ranges in natural assemblages of clam communities. We examined the clam community composition at two beaches in South Carolina, USA, and we then tested moon snail predator preferences for (a) clam prey species and (b) whether their selection is related to prey shell size. We collected a total of 1,879 clam shells, identified each shell to species and recorded their anteroposterior length. The species composition of clams differed significantly between the two beaches; Anadara ovalis was dominant at both sites, but three of ten total species were only collected at one beach. Folly Beach had nearly a 60% higher the overall drilling frequency (34.6%) versus Edisto Beach (21.8%), and this may be linked to the differences in clam community compositions at the sites. For A. ovalis and Mulinia lateralis, shells with larger lengths have lower probabilities of being bored by a moon snail. Anadara brasiliana, which generally is a thinner‐shelled clam species, had the highest total drilling frequency (77.2%), and Noetia ponderosa, a thicker‐shelled clam, had a considerably lower drilling frequency (12.0%). We conclude that both community level factors (species composition) and population characteristics (shell size distributions) may influence the local drilling frequency by moon snails.     

Effects of ocean acidification and high temperatures on the bryozoan Myriapora truncata at natural CO2 vents

There are serious concerns that ocean acidification will combine with the effects of global warming to cause major shifts in marine ecosystems, but there is a lack of field data on the combined ecological effects of these changes due to the difficulty of creating large‐scale, long‐term exposures to elevated CO₂ and temperature. Here we report the first coastal transplant experiment designed to investigate the effects of naturally acidified seawater on the rates of net calcification and dissolution of the branched calcitic bryozoan Myriapora truncata (Pallas, 1766). Colonies were transplanted to normal (pH 8.1), high (mean pH 7.66, minimum value 7.33) and extremely high CO₂ conditions (mean pH 7.43, minimum value 6.83) at gas vents off Ischia Island (Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy). The net calcification rates of live colonies and the dissolution rates of dead colonies were estimated by weighing after 45 days (May–June 2008) and after 128 days (July–October) to examine the hypothesis that high CO₂ levels affect bryozoan growth and survival differently during moderate and warm water conditions. In the first observation period, seawater temperatures ranged from 19 to 24 °C; dead M. truncata colonies dissolved at high CO₂ levels (pH 7.66), whereas live specimens maintained the same net calcification rate as those growing at normal pH. In extremely high CO₂ conditions (mean pH 7.43), the live bryozoans calcified significantly less than those at normal pH. Therefore, established colonies of M. truncata seem well able to withstand the levels of ocean acidification predicted in the next 200 years, possibly because the soft tissues protect the skeleton from an external decrease in pH. However, during the second period of observation a prolonged period of high seawater temperatures (25–28 °C) halted calcification both in controls and at high CO₂, and all transplants died when high temperatures were combined with extremely high CO₂ levels. Clearly, attempts to predict the future response of organisms to ocean acidification need to consider the effects of concurrent changes such as the Mediterranean trend for increased summer temperatures in surface waters. Although M. truncata was resilient to short‐term exposure to high levels of ocean acidification at normal temperatures, our field transplants showed that its ability to calcify at higher temperatures was compromised, adding it to the growing list of species now potentially threatened by global warming.     

Contributions to atmospheric methane by natural seepages on the U.K. continental shelf [Mar. Geol. 137 (1997) 165–189]

Natural gas seepages occur on the United Kingdom's continental shelf and although published reports suggest that they are very rare, the petroleum industry has identified, but not publicly reported, many more. There is also very little data on the flux of gas from seabed seepages, and even less on the contribution of seepages to atmospheric concentrations of gases such as methane.

Potential gas source rocks include Quaternary and Tertiary peats as well as petroliferous source rocks such as the Carboniferous Coal Measures and the Upper Jurassic Kimmeridge Clays. There are also other organic-rich sediments which are potential source rocks. Together these cover a considerable part of the U.K. continental shelf.

Analogue seismic reflection (pinger) profiles acquired during the British Geological Survey's regional mapping programme have been reviewed to identify water column targets including fish and plumes of gas bubbles. The ability to distinguish targets is critical to an assessment of the distribution of gas seepages. Both theoretical predictions of target identity and the habits of shoaling fish have been investigated in order to identify a method of distinction.

Data from seabed seepages and measurements of seepage rates have been used to establish likely ranges of gas flux rates and the sizes of gas bubbles. The likelihood that a rising bubble will survive and escape into the atmosphere is determined primarily by bubble size and water depth; methane, the principal constituent of seepage gas, is relatively unreactive and sparingly soluble.

The studies have enabled a new estimate of the distribution of gas seepages on the U.K. continental shelf, and of the contribution to atmospheric methane levels. The results suggest that natural gas seepages are significantly more important as a source of methane than had hitherto been established. It is estimated that between 120,000 and 3.5 mtonnes of methane per year come from a continental shelf area of about 600,000 km². This represents between 2% and 40% of the total United Kingdom methane emission. It is suggested that similar contributions arise from other continental shelf areas worldwide, and that geological sources of atmospheric methane are more significant than is generally acknowledged.     

A cross-ecosystem comparison of spatial and temporal patterns of covariation in the recruitment of functionally analogous fish stocks

Temporal and spatial patterns of recruitment (R) and spawning stock biomass (S) variability were compared among functionally analogous species and similar feeding guilds from six marine ecosystems. Data were aggregated into four regions including the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank, the Norwegian/Barents Seas, the eastern Bering Sea, and the Gulf of Alaska. Variability was characterized by calculating coefficients of variation and anomalies for three response variables: ln(R), ln(R/S), and stock–recruit model residuals. Patterns of synchrony and asynchrony in the response variables were examined among and between ecosystems, between- and within-ocean basins and among functionally analogous species groups using pair-wise correlation analysis corrected for within-time series autocorrelation, multivariate cross-correlation analyses and regime shift detectors. Time series trends in response variables showed consistent within basin similarities and consistent and coherent differences between the Atlantic and Pacific basin ecosystems. Regime shift detection algorithms identified two broad-scale regime shift time periods for the pelagic feeding guild (1972–1976 and 1999–2002) and possibly one for the benthic feeding guild (1999–2002). No spatial patterns in response variable coefficients of variation were observed. Results from multivariate cross-correlation analysis showed similar trends. The data suggest common external factors act in synchrony on stocks within ocean basins but temporal stock patterns, often of the same species or functional group, between basins change in opposition to each other. Basin-scale results (similar within but different between) suggest that the two geographically broad areas are connected by unknown mechanisms that, depending on the year, may influence the two basins in opposite ways. This work demonstrates that commonalities and synchronies in recruitment fluctuations can be found across geographically distant ecosystems but biophysical causes of the fluctuations remain difficult to identify.     

A New Wavelet Method for Identification of Eddies and Assessment of Incidents on Islands of the Eastern Caribbean

Using two dimensional continuous wavelet transforms, a novel method for identification of mesoscale eddies is presented to facilitate extraction of characteristics for area, amplitude, type, and location from maps of sea level anomalies. In comparison with the previously established growing method for eddy identification, it is found that the wavelet method identifies more than twice the number of eddies and is particularly better at resolving small eddies down to the 0.25 degree resolution of the data. Such research into eddy identification and tracking is significant to the assessment of eddies with potential to impact on coastlines of small islands. The method is applied to the identification of eddies on tracks towards islands of the Eastern Caribbean over 23?years. Spatial and temporal variation in rate of occurrence and magnitude is established. For Barbados there is an average of 9 anticyclonic incidents a year with maximum amplitude of typically 0.22?m in the dry seasons and 0.16?m in the wet seasons. Seasonal variation is reversed for the other islands with twice the number of anticyclonic incidents having maximum amplitudes of about 0.20?m annually.