Seismicity Models of Moderate Earthquakes in Kanto, Japan Utilizing Multiple Predictive Parameters

We construct a single hazard function from multiple predictive parameters independently developed for moderate earthquakes in Kanto, Japan, during a learning period from 1990 to 1999, and applied to a testing period from 2000 to 2005. Here, we consider as predictive parameters the a and b values of the Gutenberg–Richter relation, the ν value (change in b value), and the Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale (EEPAS) model rate. To study the correlations among the parameters, we prepare two groups of space–time coordinate sets for assessment, namely the background and conditional groups selected from the learning period. The background group contains ten thousand sets of coordinates randomly selected from the space–time volume of our study. The conditional group contains 33 sets of space–time coordinates corresponding to the epicenters of the target earthquakes (M ≥ 5.0) just before their times of occurrence. Each parameter for the background group is transformed so that its distribution conforms to the standard Normal function. The mean and variance of the conditional distribution is then estimated after applying the same transformation to the conditional group. Using the means and variances of b values, ν values and EEPAS rates and the correlation matrices in the background and conditional distributions, we construct a combined hazard function following the procedure developed for normally distributed parameters. The information gain per event (IGpe) of the new hazard function is 0.26 and 0.3 units larger than that of the EEPAS rate for the learning and testing period, respectively. The R-test confirms the statistical significance of the difference in the IGpe value for the testing period.     

Felsic magmatic phases and the role of late-stage aplitic dykes in the formation of the world-class Cantung Tungsten skarn deposit, Northwest Territories, Canada

A field and petro-chemical classification of felsic magmatic phases (FMPs) at the world-class Cantung W skarn deposit was undertaken to document the evolution of magmatism and the relationships between different FMPs, metasomatism, and mineralization. Early FMPs include moderately differentiated (Zr/Hf = 18–26, Ti/Zr = 14–15) biotite monzogranitic plutons and early biotite-rich granitic dykes, and compositionally similar quartz–feldspar porphyry dykes. Late, highly fractionated (Zr/Hf = 8–17, Ti/Zr = 3–13) FMPs sourced from a deeper monzogranitic intrusion include: (1) leucocratic biotite- or tourmaline-bearing dykes derived from localized entrapments of residual magma; and, (2) sub-vertical NE-trending aplitic dykes derived from a larger segregation of residual fluid- and incompatible element-enriched magma. The aplitic dykes have textures, morphologies, spatial associations, and a pervasive calcic metasomatic mineral assemblage (Ca-plagioclase + quartz or clinozoisite) indicative of syn-mineralization emplacement. Very late-stage overpressuring and initiation of sub-vertical fractures into the overlying plutonic carapace and country rocks by supercritical magmatic fluid led to an interaction with calcareous country rocks that resulted in an increased aCa²⁺ in the fluid and the concurrent precipitation of W skarn. Residual magma also ascended with, and quenched in equilibrium with the magmatic fluid to from the aplitic dykes, then was metasomatized by the fluid as it interacted with calcareous country rocks. Overall, highly fractionated and moderately to very highly undercooled FMPs at Cantung provide evidence for a large and evolving felsic magmatic system at depth that segregated and maintained a stable fluid- and incompatible element-enriched residual magma until the latest stages of crystallization. The detailed study of FMPs associated with magmatic-hydrothermal mineral deposits allow us to refine our understanding of these mineralizing systems and better define metallogenic and exploration models for intrusion-related mineralization.     

Hydrogeological and Gasgeochemical Earthquake Precursors – A Review for Application

Even if earthquake precursory signals can be identified, how can they be useful? This paper investigates relationships among the attributes of 229 proposed earthquake related gasgeochemical and hydrogeological precursory signals, and applies these results to improve future earthquake prediction strategies. Sub-groups of these reported signals and relationships between sub-groups are established using parameters, including earthquake magnitude, signal duration, precursory time, and epicentral distance to the monitoring site (original studies are used wherever possible to improve data quality). A strong correlation (r=0.86) between signal duration and precursory time was identified. This suggests a relationship between the investigated precursory signals and tectonic processes related to the referenced earthquakes. Moreover, these signals are categorized into four groups, reflecting differences in monitoring station densities, measurement methods and physical processes related to signal occurrence: (a) radon exhalation from the earth’s crust, (b) exhalation of other gases (helium, argon and others), (c) temporal variation in water level or discharge of springs and (d) temporal variation in temperature and dissolved ions in the water of the monitoring sites. In addition, boundary functions are used to separate signal group subsets. Finally, it is shown how these boundary functions can be used in the context of an earthquake prediction strategy by identifying potential minimum magnitudes and maximum epicentral distances from the monitoring site.     

Representing Grounding Line Dynamics in Numerical Ice Sheet Models: Recent Advances and Outlook

Recent satellite observations of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets show accelerated ice flow and associated ice sheet thinning along coastal outlet glaciers in contact with the ocean. Both processes are the result of grounding line retreat due to melting at the grounding line (the grounding line is the contact of the ice sheet with the ocean, where it starts to float and forms an ice shelf or ice tongue). Such rapid ice loss is not yet included in large-scale ice sheet models used for IPCC projections, as most of the complex processes are poorly understood. Here we report on the state-of-the art of grounding line migration in marine ice sheets and address different ways in which grounding line migration can be attributed and represented in ice sheet models. Using one-dimensional ice flow models of the ice sheet/ice shelf system we carried out a number of sensitivity experiments with different spatial resolutions and stress approximations. These are verified with semi-analytical steady state solutions. Results show that, in large-scale finite-difference models, grounding line migration is dependent on the numerical treatment (e.g. staggered/non-staggered grid) and the level of physics involved (e.g. shallow-ice/shallow-shelf approximation).     

The effects of soil type and chemical treatment on nickel speciation in refinery enriched soils: A multi-technique investigation

Aerial deposition of Ni from a refinery in Port Colborne, Ontario, Canada has resulted in the enrichment of 29 km² of land with Ni concentrations exceeding the Canadian Ministry of the Environment’s remedial action level of 200 mg kg⁻¹. Several studies on these soils have shown that making the soils calcareous was effective at reducing chemically extractable Ni, as well as alleviating Ni phytotoxicity symptoms in vegetable crops grown in the vicinity of the refinery. Conversely, dolomitic limestone additions resulted in increased uptake of Ni in the Ni hyperaccumulator Alyssum murale ‘Kotodesh’, a plant whose use was proposed as a remediation strategy for this area. In this paper we use multiple techniques to directly assess the role soil type and lime treatments play in altering the speciation of Ni in the Welland loam and Quarry muck soils around the refinery and relate these findings to Ni mobility and bioavailability.Stirred-flow dissolution experiments using pH 4 HNO₃ showed that Ni release from the limed Quarry muck and Welland loam soils was reduced (∼0.10%) relative to the unlimed soils (∼2.0%). Electron microprobe analysis (EMPA) identified approximately spherical NiO and Ni metal particles, which are associated with no other metals, and range from 5 to 50 μm in diameter. Synchrotron micro-X-ray absorption fine structure and X-ray fluorescence spectroscopies showed that Ni and Al layered double hydroxide (Ni-Al LDH) phases were present in both the limed and unlimed mineral soils, with a tendency towards more stable (e.g., aged-LDH and phyllosilicate) Ni species in the limed soil, possibly aided by the solubilization of Si with increasing pH. In the muck soils, Ni-organic complexes (namely fulvic acid) dominated the speciation in both limed and unlimed soils.The results reported herein show that both soil type and treatment have a pronounced effect on the speciation of Ni in the soils surrounding the Port Colborne refinery. We provide the first evidence that Ni-Al LDH phases can form in anthropogenically enriched mineral field soils at circumneutral pH, and can lead to a reduction in Ni mobility. In the organic soils Ni is strongly complexed by soil organic matter; a property enhanced with liming. Interestingly, increased accumulation of Ni by A. murale grown in the limed muck and loam soils indicates that the plant may be capable of removing Ni from those fractions typically considered unavailable to most plants.     

INTEGRATION OF THE MODELS OF ANNAGNPS AND REMM TO ASSESS RIPARIAN BUFFER SYSTEM FOR SEDIMENT REDUCTION

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution model (AnnAGNPS) is used to help evaluate a watershed response to agricultural management practices to control water quality. However, AnnAGNPS version 3.5 does not contain features to estimate the effect of a riparian buffer (RB) system on water quality. The Riparian Ecosystem Management Model (REMM) is used to simulate the impact of riparian buffer systems on water quality. However, frequently the lack of measured upland loadings that are required by REMM simulation limits the application of REMM. To address this data gap, a study was conducted to integrate AnnAGNPS with REMM for RB system simulation. AnnAGNPS was used to simulate water and sediment loadings from an upland field into a three-zone RB system at the Gibbs Farm located in the Georgia coastal plain. These AnnAGNPS outputs were used as the inputs to REMM. REMM was used to simulate water and sediment movement along the riparian buffers. The AnnAGNPS simulated amount of annual runoff at the edge of the field was close to observed amounts (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.92). It is believed that a substantial portion of sand was removed from the runoff one meter into the grass buffer where the samplers were located; therefore, sand was excluded from the AnnAGNPS simulation for comparison with observed sediment. Excluding sand, the AnnAGNPS predicted amount of annual sediment matches the observed amount fairly well (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.46). In addition, based on evaluating the percent reduction of sediment at each zonal interface, the AnnAGNPS/REMM model well simulated the function of the RB system to reduce sediment.     

Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China

Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions.     

Ionic medium effects in sea water — A comparison of acidity constants of carbonic acid and boric acid in sodium chloride and synthetic sea water

It is shown that the values of pK_1C and pK_2C for carbonic acid, pK_B for boric acid and the ionic product of water, pK_w, in sea water may be explained on the basis of their determination in 0.7 M_w sodium chloride and the formation of the following ion-pairs: NaSO₄^?, MgSO₄, CaSO₄, MgCO₃, CaCO₃, MgHCO₃⁺, CaHCO₃⁺, MgOH⁺, HSO₄^?, MgB(OH)₄⁺ and CaB(OH)₄⁺. On the whole the calculated stability constants are lower than those given by Garrels and Thompson (1962).