Inverse Analysis of Deep Excavation Using Differential Evolution Algorithm

This paper presents the applications of the differential evolution (DE) algorithm in back analysis of soil parameters for deep excavation problems. A computer code, named Python‐based DE, is developed and incorporated into the commercial finite element software ABAQUS, with a parallel computing technique to run an FE analysis for all trail vectors of one generation in DE in multiple cores of a cluster, which dramatically reduces the computational time. A synthetic case and a well‐instrumented real case, that is, the Taipei National Enterprise Center (TNEC) project, are used to demonstrate the capability of the proposed back‐analysis procedure. Results show that multiple soil parameters are well identified by back analysis using a DE optimization algorithm for highly nonlinear problems. For the synthetic excavation case, the back‐analyzed parameters are basically identical to the input parameters that are used to generate synthetic response of wall deflection. For the TNEC case with a total of nine parameters to be back analyzed, the relative errors of wall deflection for the last three stages are 2.2, 1.1, and 1.0%, respectively. Robustness of the back‐estimated parameters is further illustrated by a forward prediction. The wall deflection in the subsequent stages can be satisfactorily predicted using the back‐analyzed soil parameters at early stages. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

School vulnerability to disaster: examination of school closure,demographic, and exposure factors in Hurricane Ike’s wind swath

Damage and destruction to schools from climate-related disasters can have significant and lasting impacts on curriculum and educational programs, educational attainment, and future income-earning potential of affected students. As such, assessing the potential impact of hazards is crucial to the ability of individuals, households, and communities to respond to natural disasters, extreme events, and economic crises. Yet, few studies have focused on assessing the vulnerability of schools in coastal regions of the USA. Using Hurricane Ike’s tropical storm wind swath in the State of Texas as our study area, we: (1) assessed the spatial distribution patterns of school closures and (2) tested the relationship between school closure and vulnerability factors (namely physical exposure and school demographics) using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. The regression results show that higher probabilities of hurricane strikes, more urbanized school districts, and school districts located in coastal counties on the right side of Ike’s path have significant positive associations with an increase in the number of school closure days. Socioeconomic characteristics were not significantly associated with the number of days closed, with the exception of proportion of Hispanic youth in schools, a result which is not supported by the social vulnerability literature. At a practical level, understanding how hurricanes may adversely impact schools is important for developing appropriate preparedness, mitigation, recovery, and adaptation strategies. For example, school districts on the right side of the hurricane track can plan in advance for potential damage and destruction. The ability of a community to respond to future natural disasters, extreme events, and economic crises depends in part on mitigating these adverse effects.     

Energetic protons from the solar flare of March 24, 1966

Ten to 100 meV protons from the solar flare of March 24, 1966 were observed on the University of California scintillation counter on OGO-I. The short rise and decay times observed in the count rates of the 32 channels of pulse-height analysis show that scattering of the protons by the interplanetary field was much less important in this event than in previously observed proton flares. A diffusion theory in which D = M _r is found to be inadequate to account for the time behavior of the count rates of this event. Small fluctuations of the otherwise smooth decay phase may be due to flare protons reflected from the back of a shock front, which passed the earth on March 23.     

A glancing incidence solar telescope for the soft x-ray region

This paper describes the instrumentation of an Aerobee rocket (NASA 4.95 GS) which was launched from White Sands Missile Range on May 20th 1966, to observe the Sun in the soft X-ray region. The experiment package, which was pointed at the sun by a control system stabilized about all three axes, carried two Wolter type I glancing incidence telescopes to photograph the sun in wavelength regions (determined by bandpass filters) between 3 and 75 Å, and two proportional counters to obtain flux data and rough spectral shapes in the regions 2–11 Å and 8–20 Å. The spatial resolution obtained was about 20 arc seconds. Limb brightening and polar darkening are very pronounced at the longer wavelengths. A tuft of emission was observed at the North Pole in addition to an arch-like structure on the NW limb. Several of the photographs are presented, and some preliminary results are discussed.     

Broad search for unstable resonant orbits in the planar circular restricted three-body problem

Unstable resonant orbits in the circular restricted three-body problem have increasingly been used for trajectory design using optimization and invariant manifold techniques. In this study, several methods for computing these unstable resonant orbits are explored including grid searches, flyby maps, and continuation. Families of orbits are computed focusing on orbits with multiple loops near the secondary in the Jupiter–Europa system, and their characteristics are explored. Different parameters such as period and stability are examined for each set of resonant orbits, and the continuation of several specific orbits is explored in more detail.     

Sea-level rise and flooding in coastal riverine flood plains

Abstract

This work presents a method for calculating the contributions of sea-level rise and urban growth to flood risk in coastal flood plains. The method consists of hydraulic/hydrological, urban growth and flood-damage quantification modules. The hydraulic/hydrological module estimates peak annual flows to generate flood stages impacted by sea-level rise within flood plains. A model for urban growth predicts patterns of urbanization within flood plains over the period 2010–2050. The flood-damage quantification module merges flood maps and urbanization predictions to calculate the expected annual flood damage (EAFD) for given scenarios of sea-level rise. The method is illustrated with an application to the Tijuana River of southern California, USA, and northwestern Mexico, where the EAFD is predicted to increase by over US$100 million because of sea-level rise of 0.25–1.0 m and urban growth by the year 2050. It is shown that urbanization plays a principal role in increasing the EAFD in the study area for the range of sea-level rise considered.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Garcia, E.S. and Loáiciga, H.A., 2013. Sea-level rise and flooding in coastal riverine flood plains. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 204–220.     

Non-Linear Theory and Power-Law Models for Information Integration and Mineral Resources Quantitative Assessments

Singular physical or chemical processes may result in anomalous amounts of energy release or mass accumulation that, generally, are confined to narrow intervals in space or time. Singularity is a property of different types of non-linear natural processes including cloud formation, rainfall, hurricanes, flooding, landslides, earthquakes, wildfires, and mineralization. The end products of these non-linear processes can be modeled as fractals or multifractals. Hydrothermal processes in the Earth’s crust can result in ore deposits characterized by high concentrations of metals with fractal or multifractal properties. Here we show that the non-linear properties of the end products of singular mineralization processes can be applied for prediction of undiscovered mineral deposits and for quantitative mineral resource assessment, whether for mineral exploration or for regional, national and global planning for mineral resource utilization. In addition to the general theory and framework for the non-linear mineral resources assessment, this paper focuses on several power-law models proposed for characterizing non-linear properties of mineralization and for geoinformation extraction and integration. The theories, methods, and computer system discussed in this paper were validated using a case study dealing with hydrothermal Au mineral potential in southern Nova Scotia, Canada.     

Dissolved oxygen variations in alpine glacial meltwaters

Recent models of chemical weathering in alpine glacial meltwaters suggest that sulphide oxidation is a major source of solute in the distributed component of the subglacial hydrological system. This reaction requires O₂, and may lower dissolved oxygen levels to below saturation with respect to the atmosphere. This should result in an inverse association between SO₇^2- and dissolved oxygen saturation. However, measurements of O₂ saturation in bulk meltwaters draining the Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland, show that there is a positive association between SO₄^2- and O₂ saturation. The O₂ content of glacial meltwaters depends on the initial content of snow and icemelt, which may be controlled by the rate of melting, and the kinetic balance between O₂ losses (e.g. sulphide oxidation, microbial respiration) and gains (e.g. diffusion of O₂ into solution).     

Errors and correction of precipitation measurements in China

In order to discover the range of various errors in Chinese precipitation measurements and seek a correction method, 30 precipitation evaluation stations were set up countrywide before 1993. All the stations are reference stations in China. To seek a correction method for wind-induced error, a precipitation correction instrument called the ＂horizontal precipitation gauge＂ was devised beforehand. Field intercomparison observations regarding 29,000 precipitation events have been conducted using one pit gauge, two elevated operational gauges and one horizontal gauge at the above 30 stations. The range of precipitation measurement errors in China is obtained by analysis of intercomparison measurement results. The distribution of random errors and systematic errors in precipitation measurements are studied in this paper. A correction method, especially for wind-induced errors, is developed. The results prove that a correlation of power function exists between the precipitation amount caught by the horizontal gauge and the absolute difference of observations implemented by the operational gauge and pit gauge. The correlation coefficient is 0.99. For operational observations, precipitation correction can be carried out only by parallel observation with a horizontal precipitation gauge. The precipitation accuracy after correction approaches that of the pit gauge. The correction method developed is simple and feasible.