Intensity–duration–frequency curves exploiting neighbouring extreme precipitation data

ABSTRACT

Records of precipitation extremes are essential for hydrological design. In urban hydrology, intensity–duration–frequency curves are typically estimated from observation records. However, conventional approaches seldom consider the areal extent of events. If they do, duration-dependent area reduction factors are used, but precipitation is measured at only a few locations. Due to the high spatial variability of precipitation, it is relatively unlikely that a gauged observation network will capture the extremes that occur during a precipitation event. Therefore, the area reduction approach cannot be regarded as the reduction of an observed maximum. To investigate precipitation extremes, spatial aspects need to be considered using different approaches. Here, we both address the conventional practice of area reduction and consider a within-area chance of increased precipitation, defined as the maximum precipitation intensity observed in a cluster within a selected domain. The results show that (1) the risk of urban flooding is routinely underestimated in current design practice, and (2) traditional calculations underestimate extremes by as much as 30–50%. We show how they can be revised sensibly.     

A neuro fuzzy approach to recognize rock magnetic and lithological patterns in a stratigraphic well from the Llanos Foreland Basin (Colombia)

The Neuro Fuzzy System (NFS) is a hybrid algorithm that combines fuzzy logic with neural networks. Since it can be used as a pattern recognition technique, we explore its potential to characterize the major lithological units encompassed by the first 512 m of the Colombian stratigraphic well Saltarin 1A (Guayabo and León Formations). Thus, we employ the NFS to infer the magnetic remanence S-ratio using bulk magnetic susceptibility (κ), κ-normalized saturation isothermal magnetization (SIRM κ) and/or volume of shale (V_sh) obtained from a gamma-ray log. The best results in terms of their corresponding Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) values, throughout most of the upper Guayabo Formation, where magnetite seems to be an important magnetic phase, are attained with logκ and SIRM κ as input variables. Beyond 350 m downcore, the quality of the inference decreases over the León Formation, characterized by a significant presence of pyrrhotite. However, the extra input variable V_sh adjusts the inferred S-ratio to their experimental counterparts throughout this formation suggesting that the early diagenesis process that led to the formation of dispersed clay in these samples was also responsible for the formation of pyrrhotite. Hence the inclusion of manifold input data increases the ability of the net to predict S-ratio in complex geological settings with a sequence of changing lithologies, varying amounts and types of magnetic minerals, and different distributions of mineral grain sizes. In case these variables do not properly infer the actual S-ratio data, the extent of the different lithostratigraphic units would be still identifiable in some cases by the uneven quality of the correlation observed between inferred and experimental values.     

Numerical relationships between magnetic parameters measured in Quaternary sediments and global paleoclimatic proxies

The complexity of most geological and geophysical problems prompts sometimes the use of non linear mathematical methods to handle them. An adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) that combines fuzzy logic with neural networks, is applied here to study a paleoclimate section from the Quaternary sedimentary fill of the Lake Mucubají (western Venezuela). The purpose of this work is to find a set of numerical relationships that could predict the possible connections between oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O) values from two different locations in the northern hemisphere (Ammersee in southern Germany and an ice core from the Greenland Ice Core Project — GRIP) and rock-magnetic parameters measured in Mucubají samples (i.e. mass-specific magnetic susceptibility — χ, magnetic remanence S-ratio, mass-specific saturation isothermal remanent magnetization — SIRM and anhysteretic remanent magnetization — ARM). The best inferences in terms of coefficient of determionation R² and the Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) are obtained using those magnetic data as input that include information about magnetite grain size distributions, e.g., SIRM and ARM in FIS structures [1χ, 4ARM] and [4ARM, 1SIRM]. A comparison between Ammersee and GRIP actual data, as well as their corresponding inferences for the FIS structure [4ARM, 1SIRM], reveals a reasonable good inference of global trends for both records, overlooking the regional and/or local paleoclimate forcings that might have affected Ammersee. A better correlation between global isotope paleoclimate records and magnetic proxies, is perhaps prevented by the role played by local and regional paleoclimate and tectonism in Mucubají. We also argue that the ratio of ARM over SIRM appears to be related in a complex way to the onset and to the end of the Younger Dryas. Our novel approach to the assessment of a specific paleoclimate case study shows the potential of the ANFIS technique in solving problems where traditional univariate and multivariate linear regression methods could prove inadequate.     

Magnetic particles in atmospheric particulate matter collected at sites with different level of air pollution

Magnetic measurements of deposited atmospehric dust can serve as an additional parameter in assessing environmental pollution. This method is based on the assumption that atmospherically deposited particles contain significant portion of ferrimagnetic iron oxides of anthropogenic origin, which can be easily detected. Aim of this paper is to identify clearly magnetic fraction of daily samples of particulate matter less than 10 μm (PM10), routinely used for air quality assessment and monitoring. We used combination of thermomagnetic analyses and other physical and chemical methods, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and Mössbauer spectroscopy. Our results show that daily samples of PM10, collected at sites with different degree of atmospheric pollution, contain magnetite of spherical shape, which is presumably of industrial origin. Thus, magnetic methods can be applied directly to the same substances, which are used routinely in air quality assessment and monitoring.     

Petrophysical and geochemical constraints on alteration processes in granites

The hydrothermal alteration of granites has large influence on their petrophysical properties. To reveal the impact of alteration on magnetic and porosity properties of granites we have conducted a complex study of effects of two largely independent alteration processes, related to chemically different fluids, in granites of the Vysoký Kámen stock (the Krudum granite body, Czech Republic). It includes the whole-rock geochemical, magnetic and pore-space characterization. The alkali feldspathization resulted in decomposition of Li-mica, quartz removal, depletion in mafic cations and growth of new alkali feldspars (albite, K-feldspar), decreasing the overall magnetic susceptibility and disrupting the pore space by its discontinuation. The preservation of the orientation of the principal susceptibility axes is likely related to insignificant influence of the feldspathization process on the paramagnetic and diamagnetic phases orientation acquired during the magma emplacement. The greisenization, on the other hand had considerably more significant effects on microstructure and physical properties of the granite. The microstructure was modified by the growth of large amounts of new phases (Li-mica, quartz and topaz). This changed the mineral density of the rock, the porosity, size and character of pores to larger, flatter and probably more connected. This led also to the complete reworking of the original anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility during the greisenization.     

Environmental determinants of leech assemblage patterns in lotic and lenitic habitats

Leeches (Clitellata: Hirudinida) are abundant predators or ecto-parasites inhabiting various freshwater habitats; however many biotic and abiotic drivers of their assemblage patterns have been deduced rather than directly tested. To study species richness and composition changes in leech assemblages, 109 sites of running and stagnant water bodies were sampled in three regions of the Czech Republic in 2007–2010, together with several explanatory variables that are known or expected to be important predictors of leech distribution. In total, 17 species of leeches were recorded, varying between 0–7 and 0–9 species in lotic and lenitic sites, respectively. These differences in species richness of lotic and lenitic sites were highly significant, contrary to the abundances, which varied between 0–283 and 0–295 individuals. The main change in species composition was controlled by water temperature and morphological characteristics (e.g. substrate and cover of macrophytes), mostly reflecting the differences between lotic and lenitic habitats. We found the density of benthos (i.e. prey availability) to be the best predictor of species composition in both lotic and lenitic sites, together with the percentage of canopy cover. However, the other significant predictors (i.e. the substrate and water conductivity found to be significant in lotic sites, and the mean annual temperature and PO₄^3? in lenitic sites), differed between these habitats. Other than mean annual temperature and water temperature, which had different effects on species richness in lotic and lenitic sites, there were no other differences between lotic and lenitic sites in terms of how species richness and abundance responded to all other analyzed predictors. Our results stress the importance of prey availability and canopy for leech distribution patterns. Differences in the significant predictors of leech assemblage patterns between lotic and lenitic sites raise fundamental questions about the underlying mechanisms and ecological constraints to leech distribution in these main types of aquatic systems.     

The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain)

Abstract

Trends in high and low flows are valuable indicators of hydrological change because they highlight changes in various parts of the frequency distribution of streamflow series. This enables improved assessment of water availability in regions with high seasonal and inter-annual variability. There has been a substantial reduction in water resources in the Duero basin (Iberian Peninsula, Spain) and other areas of the Mediterranean region during the last 50 years, and this is likely to continue because of climate change. In this study, we investigated the evolution and trends in high and low flows in the Spanish part of the Duero basin, and in equivalent or closely-related precipitation indices for the period 1961–2005. The results showed a general trend of decrease in the frequency and magnitude of high flows throughout most of the basin. Moreover, the number of days with low flows significantly increased over this period. No clear relationship was evident between the evolution of high/low flows and changes in the distribution frequencies of the precipitation series. In contrast to what was expected, the number of days with heavy precipitation and the mean annual precipitation did not show significant trends across the basin, and the number of days without rainfall decreased slightly. The divergence between precipitation and runoff evolution was more accentuated in spring and summer. In the absence of trends in precipitation, it is possible that reforestation processes in the region, and increasing temperatures in recent decades, could be related to the decreasing frequency of high flows and the increasing frequency of low flows.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi

Citation Morán-Tejeda, E., López-Moreno, J.I., Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J. and Ceballos-Barbancho, A., 2012. The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 591–611.     

Fluctuations of floods of the River Morava (Czech Republic) in the 1691–2009 period: interactions of natural and anthropogenic factors

Abstract

Floods from the middle part of the River Morava (eastern Czech Republic) are considered over the course of the past three centuries, the study being based on data derived from documentary evidence (1691–1880), measured peak water stages, H_k (1881–1920) and peak discharges, Q_k (1916–2009), evaluated with respect to their N-year return period (H_N and Q_N ). Changes in land use and water management (water reservoirs, channel modifications) are discussed, as are factors influencing runoff conditions in the Morava catchment. Decadal synthesis of flood series identifies the highest flood activity in the decades of 1911–1920 and 1961–1970 (11 floods each), 1831–1840, 1891–1900, 1901–1910 and 1931–1940 (10 floods each). Uncertainty in this series is related to some incompleteness of documentary data in the pre-1881 period. Very low flood frequency occurred in the 1990s–2000s, although the most disastrous floods were recorded in this particular period (July 1997 at Q ₁₀₀ and March/April 2006 at Q ₂₀–Q ₅₀). Changes in flood frequency correspond partly to long-term changes in temperature and precipitation patterns.

Citation Brázdil, R., ?ezní?ková, L., Valá?ek, H., Havlí?ek, M., Dobrovolný, P., Soukalová, E., ?ehánek, T. & Skokanová, H. (2011) Fluctuations of floods of the River Morava (Czech Republic) in the 1691–2009 period: interactions of natural and anthropogenic factors. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(3), 468–485.