Topographic predictors of susceptibility to alluvial fan flooding,Southern Apennines

The flooding susceptibility of alluvial fans in the Southern Apennines has long been neglected. To partly address this oversight, we focus on the region of Campania which contains highly urbanized piedmont areas particularly vulnerable to flooding. Our findings are based on stratigraphic analysis of the fans and morphometric analysis of the basin‐fan systems. Using geomorphological analysis we recognized active alluvial fans while stratigraphic analysis together with statistical analysis of the morphometric variables was used to classify the fans in terms of the transport process involved. The results indicate that in the geological context examined, the best discrimination between debris flow (Df) and water flood (Wf) processes is achieved by means of two related variables, one for the basin (feeder channel inclination, Cg) and one for the fan (fan length, Fl). The probability that an unclassified fan belongs to group Wf is computed by applying a logistic function in which a P value exceeding 0.5 indicates that a basin/fan system belongs to group Wf. This important result led to the classification of the entire basin/fan system data. As regards process intensity, debris flow‐dominated fans are susceptible to the occurrence of flows with high viscosity and hence subject to more severe events than water flood‐dominated fans. Bearing this in mind, the data gathered in this study allow us to detect where alluvial fan flooding might occur and give information on the different degrees of susceptibility at a regional scale. Regrettably, urban development in recent decades has failed to take the presence of such alluvial fans into account due to the long recurrence time (50–100 years) between floods. This paper outlines the distribution of such susceptibility scenarios throughout the region, thereby constituting an initial step to implementing alluvial fan flooding control and mitigation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Frontal dynamics boost primary production in the summer stratified Mediterranean sea

Bio-physical glider measurements from a unique process-oriented experiment in the Eastern Alboran Sea (AlborEx) allowed us to observe the distribution of the deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) across an intense density front, with a resolution (～ 400 m) suitable for investigating sub-mesoscale dynamics. This front, at the interface between Atlantic and Mediterranean waters, had a sharp density gradient (Δρ ～ 1 kg/m³ in ～ 10 km) and showed imprints of (sub-)mesoscale phenomena on tracer distributions. Specifically, the chlorophyll-a concentration within the DCM showed a disrupted pattern along isopycnal surfaces, with patches bearing a relationship to the stratification (buoyancy frequency) at depths between 30 and 60 m. In order to estimate the primary production (PP) rate within the chlorophyll patches observed at the sub-surface, we applied the Morel and Andrè (J Geophys Res 96:685–698 1991) bio-optical model using the photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) from Argo profiles collected simultaneously with glider data. The highest production was located concurrently with domed isopycnals on the fresh side of the front, suggestive that (sub-)mesoscale upwelling is carrying phytoplankton patches from less to more illuminated levels, with a contemporaneous delivering of nutrients. Integrated estimations of PP (1.3 g C m^?2d^?1) along the glider path are two to four times larger than the estimations obtained from satellite-based algorithms, i.e., derived from the 8-day composite fields extracted over the glider trip path. Despite the differences in spatial and temporal sampling between instruments, the differences in PP estimations are mainly due to the inability of the satellite to measure DCM patches responsible for the high production. The deepest (depth > 60 m) chlorophyll patches are almost unproductive and probably transported passively (subducted) from upper productive layers. Finally, the relationship between primary production and oxygen is also investigated. The logarithm of the primary production in the DCM interior (chlorophyll (Chl) > 0.5 mg/m³) shows a linear negative relationship with the apparent oxygen utilization, confirming that high chlorophyll patches are productive. The slope of this relationship is different for Atlantic, mixed interface waters and Mediterranean waters, suggesting the presence of differences in planktonic communities (whether physiological, population, or community level should be object of further investigation) on the different sides of the front. In addition, the ratio of optical backscatter to Chl is high within the intermediate (mixed) waters, which is suggestive of large phytoplankton cells, and lower within the core of the Atlantic and Mediterranean waters. These observations highlight the relevance of fronts in triggering primary production at DCM level and shaping the characteristic patchiness of the pelagic domain. This gains further relevance considering the inadequacy of optical satellite sensors to observe DCM concentrations at such fine scales.     

Rapid cooling and geospeedometry of granitic rocks exhumation within a volcanic arc: A case study from the Central Slovakian Neovolcanic Field (Western Carpathians)

U–Pb Sensitive High‐Resolution Ion MicroProbe (SHRIMP) dating of zircon in combination with (U–Th)/He dating of zircon and apatite is applied to constrain the emplacement and exhumation history of the youngest granitic rocks in the Western Carpathians collected in the Central Slovakian Neovolcanic Field. Two samples of diorite from the locality Banky, and granodiorite from Banská Hodru?a yield the U–Pb zircon concordia ages of 15.21 ±0.19 Ma and 12.92 ±0.27 Ma, respectively, recording the time of zircon crystallization and the intrusions’ emplacement. Zircon (U–Th)/He ages of 14.70 ±0.94 (Banky) and 12.65 ±0.61 Ma (Banská Hodru?a), and apatite (U–Th)/He ages of 14.45 ±0.70 Ma (diorite) and 12.26 ±0.77 Ma (granodiorite) are less than 1 Myr younger than the corresponding zircon U–Pb ages. For both diorite and granodiorite rocks their chronological data thus document a simple cooling process from magmatic crystallization/solidification temperatures to near‐surface temperatures in the Middle Miocene, without subsequent reheating. Geospeedometry data suggest for rapid cooling at an average rate of 678 ±158 °C/Myr, and the exhumation rate of 5 mm/year corresponding to active tectonic‐forced exhumation. The quick cooling is interpreted to record the exhumation of the studied granitic rocks complex that closely followed its emplacement, and was likely accompanied by a drop in the paleo‐geothermal gradient due to cessation of volcanic activity in the area.     

Estimation of extreme Component-wise Excess design realization: a hydrological application

The classic univariate risk measure in environmental sciences is the Return Period (RP). The RP is traditionally defined as “the average time elapsing between two successive realizations of a prescribed event”. The notion of design quantile related with RP is also of great importance. The design quantile represents the “value of the variable(s) characterizing the event associated with a given RP”. Since an individual risk may strongly be affected by the degree of dependence amongst all risks, the need for the provision of multivariate design quantiles has gained ground. In contrast to the univariate case, the design quantile definition in the multivariate setting presents certain difficulties. In particular, Salvadori, G., De Michele, C. and Durante F. define in the paper called “On the return period and design in a multivariate framework” (Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15:3293–3305, 2011) the design realization as the vector that maximizes a weight function given that the risk vector belongs to a given critical layer of its joint multivariate distribution function. In this paper, we provide the explicit expression of the aforementioned multivariate risk measure in the Archimedean copula setting. Furthermore, this measure is estimated by using Extreme Value Theory techniques and the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is studied. The performance of our estimator is evaluated on simulated data. We conclude with an application on a real hydrological data-set.     

Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island,Antarctica

Modelling glacier discharge is an important issue in hydrology and climate research. Glaciers represent a fundamental water resource when melting of ice and snow contributes to runoff. Glaciers are also studied as natural global warming sensors. GLACKMA association has implemented one of their Pilot Experimental Catchment areas at the King George Island in the Antarctica which records values of the liquid discharge from Collins glacier. In this paper, we propose the use of time-varying copula models for analyzing the relationship between air temperature and glacier discharge, which is clearly non constant and non linear through time. A seasonal copula model is defined where both the marginal and copula parameters vary periodically along time following a seasonal dynamic. Full Bayesian inference is performed such that the marginal and copula parameters are estimated in a one single step, in contrast with the usual two-step approach. Bayesian prediction and model selection is also carried out for the proposed model such that Bayesian credible intervals can be obtained for the conditional glacier discharge given a value of the temperature at any given time point. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the GLACKMA real data where there is, in addition, a hydrological year of missing discharge data which were not possible to measure accurately due to problems in the sounding.     

Improving at-site flood frequency analysis with additional spatial information: a probabilistic regional envelope curve approach

Extreme flood events have detrimental effects on society, the economy and the environment. Widespread flooding across South East Queensland in 2011 and 2013 resulted in the loss of lives and significant cost to the economy. In this region, flood risk planning and the use of traditional flood frequency analysis (FFA) to estimate both the magnitude and frequency of the 1-in-100 year flood is severely limited by short gauging station records. On average, these records are 42 years in Eastern Australia and many have a poor representation of extreme flood events. The major aim of this study is to test the application of an alternative method to estimate flood frequency in the form of the Probabilistic Regional Envelope Curve (PREC) approach which integrates additional spatial information of extreme flood events. In order to better define and constrain a working definition of an extreme flood, an Australian Envelope Curve is also produced from available gauging station data. Results indicate that the PREC method shows significant changes to the larger recurrence intervals (≥100 years) in gauges with either too few, or too many, extreme flood events. A decision making process is provided to ascertain when this method is preferable for FFA.     

Atlas of susceptibility to pollution in marinas. Application to the Spanish coast

An atlas of susceptibility to pollution of 320 Spanish marinas is provided. Susceptibility is assessed through a simple, fast and low cost empirical method estimating the flushing capacity of marinas. The Complexity Tidal Range Index (CTRI) was selected among eleven empirical methods. The CTRI method was selected by means of statistical analyses because: it contributes to explain the system's variance; it is highly correlated to numerical model results; and, it is sensitive to marinas' location and typology. The process of implementation to the Spanish coast confirmed its usefulness, versatility and adaptability as a tool for the environmental management of marinas worldwide. The atlas of susceptibility, assessed through CTRI values, is an appropriate instrument to prioritize environmental and planning strategies at a regional scale.     

Trend analysis of nutrient loadings in a large prairie catchment

Nutrient loadings in many river catchments continue to increase due to rapid expansion of agriculture, urban and industrial development, and population growth. Nutrient enrichment of water bodies has intensified eutrophication which degrades water quality and ecosystem health. In this study, we carried out a trend analysis of total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads in the South Saskatchewan River (SSR) catchment using a novel approach to analyse nutrient time series. Seasonal analysis of trends at each of the water quality stations was performed to determine the relationships between annual flow regimes and nutrient loads in the catchment, in particular, the influence of the high spring runoff on nutrient export. Decadal analysis was also performed to determine the long-term relationships of nutrients with anthropogenic changes in the catchment. Although it was found that seasonal and historical variability of nutrient load trends is mainly determined by streamflow regime changes, there is evidence that increases in nitrogen concentration can also be attributed to anthropogenic changes.     

Replaceable links with direct brace attachments for eccentrically braced frames

This paper reports findings of an experimental study conducted on replaceable links for steel eccentrically braced frames (EBFs). A replaceable link detail which is based on splicing the directly connected braces and the beam outside the link is proposed. This detail eliminates the need to use hydraulic jacks and flame cutting operations for replacement purposes. Performance of this proposed replaceable link was studied by conducting eight nearly full‐scale EBF tests under quasi‐static cyclic loading. The link length ratio, stiffening of the link, loading protocol, connection type, bolt pretension, gap size of splice connections, and demand‐to‐capacity ratios of members were considered as the prime variables. The specimens primarily showed two types of failure modes: link web fracture and fracture of the flange at the link‐to‐brace connection. No failures were observed at the splice connections indicating that the proposed replaceable link detail provides an excellent response. The inelastic rotation capacity provided by the replaceable links satisfied the requirements of the AISC Seismic Provisions for Structural Steel Buildings (AISC341–10). The overstrength factor of the links exceeded 2.0, which is larger than the value assumed for EBF links by design provisions. The high level of overstrength resulted in brace buckling in one of the specimens demonstrating the importance of overstrength factor used for EBF links. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understory and small trees contribute importantly to stemflow of a lower montane cloud forest

Stemflow (Sf) measurements in tropical rain and montane forests dominated by large trees rarely include the understory and small trees. In this study, contributions of lower (1‐ to 2‐m height) and upper (>2‐m height and <5‐cm diameter at breast height [DBH]) woody understory, small trees (5 < DBH < 10 cm), and canopy trees (>10‐cm DBH) to Sf per unit ground area (Sf_a) of a Mexican lower montane cloud forest were quantified for 32 days with rainfall (P) during the 2014 wet season. Rainfall, stemflow yield (Sf_y), vegetation height, density, and basal area were measured. Subsequently, stemflow funneling ratios (SFRs) were calculated, and three common methods to scale up Sf_y from individual trees to the stand level (tree‐Sf_y correlation, P‐Sf_y correlation, and mean‐Sf_y extrapolation) were used to calculate Sf_a. Understory woody plants, small trees, and upper canopy trees represented 96%, 2%, and 2%, respectively, of the total density. Upper canopy trees had the lowest SFRs (1.6 ± 0.5 Standard Error (SE) on average), although the lower understory had the highest (36.1 ± 6.4). Small trees and upper understory presented similar SFRs (22.9 ± 5.4 and 20.2 ± 3.9, respectively). Different Sf scaling methods generally yielded similar results. Overall Sf_a during the study period was 22.7 mm (4.5% of rainfall), to which the understory contributed 70.1% (15.9 mm), small trees 10.6% (2.4 mm), and upper canopy trees 19.3% (4.4 mm). Our results strongly suggest that for humid tropical forests with dense understory of woody plants and small trees, Sf of these groups should be measured to avoid an underestimation of overall Sf at the stand level.