Spatial variability and interpolation of daily precipitation amount

Daily precipitation amounts show spatial variation over sub-continential regions. Point measurements, represntative for regions of land, have to be interpolated towards unobserved locations. In this study four days in 1984 were selected to investigate the spatial variability of daily precipitation amount in north-western Europe in relation to the meteorological conditions. Data were interpolated using kriging. Crossvalidation was used to compare interpolated values with measured values. Large differences in the spatial structure of daily precipitation amount are observed as a result of different meteorological conditions. Stratification of the study area into a coast, a mountain and an interior stratum proved to be successful, reducing the Mean Squared Error of Prediction with up to 55%.This article was inadvertently printed in SHH 6(3) 1992 without figures and figure legends. The article is being reprinted in this issue in complete form. The editor apologizes for this error in publication.     

Microséismes et Séismes précédant l’éruption du Nyamuragira-Kitzimbanyi (Afrique Centrale) 1958

An analysis is made of microseismic and seismic activity for a period of about 3 months prior to the 1958 eruption in the Virunga Volcanoes, Western Rift Valley of Central Africa. It is believed that it would have been possible to predict the eruption some 30 h before, on the basis of two series of small earthquakes preceeding the 2 outbrakes by some 50 h, and presenting an exponential decay of the total number of shocks.     

Toxicity of sea-surface microlayer: Effects on herring and turbot embryos

Marine fish eggs, from herring (Clupea harengus) and turbot (Psetta maxima), were used to test the effects of the sea-surface microlayer on embryonic development. The eggs were exposed in static systems to full strength microlayer and 1,10,50% dilutions. Depending on the sampling site (Helgoland harbour, Kiel Förde, Travemünde marina, Elbe Hamburg Port) and time, microlayer contained varying amounts of Zn, Cd, Cu, Ni, Fe, Pb and Co, in concentrations 100 times above those found in subsurface bulk water. Chlorinated hydrocarbon pesticides were not found at concentrations elevated above bulk water, but considerable amounts of petroleum hydrocarbons and phthalate esters were detected. Microlayer displayed differential concentration-dependent toxicity for each species used in the experiments. Effects on hatching time as well as total hatch (%) and number of abnormal larvae were recorded. Herring eggs were most affected by Helgoland microlayer (suspected effect of high metal content) while turbot eggs were most sensitive to Travemünde and Elbe microlayer (suspected effect of high petroleum hydrocarbons). The usefulness of microlayer studies as a tool for environmental assessment is discussed. An impact of microlayer effects on recruitment in sensitive species is deemed possible.     

Wave modelling - The state of the art

This paper is the product of the wave modelling community and it tries to make a picture of the present situation in this branch of science, exploring the previous and the most recent results and looking ahead towards the solution of the problems we presently face. Both theory and applications are considered.The many faces of the subject imply separate discussions. This is reflected into the single sections, seven of them, each dealing with a specific topic, the whole providing a broad and solid overview of the present state of the art. After an introduction framing the problem and the approach we followed, we deal in sequence with the following subjects: (Section) 2, generation by wind; 3, nonlinear interactions in deep water; 4, white-capping dissipation; 5, nonlinear interactions in shallow water; 6, dissipation at the sea bottom; 7, wave propagation; 8, numerics. The two final sections, 9 and 10, summarize the present situation from a general point of view and try to look at the future developments.     

Model simulations of dense bottom currents in the Western Baltic Sea

Only recently, medium intensity inflow events into the Baltic Sea have gained more awareness because of their potential to ventilate intermediate layers in the Southern Baltic Sea basins. With the present high-resolution model study of the Western Baltic Sea a first attempt is made to obtain model based realistic estimates of turbulent mixing in this area where dense bottom currents resulting from medium intensity inflow events are weakened by turbulent entrainment. The numerical model simulation which is carried out using the General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM) during nine months in 2003 and 2004 is first validated by means of three automatic stations at the Drogden and Darss Sills and in the Arkona Sea. In order to obtain good agreement between observations and model results, the 0.5×0.5$0.5\times 0.5$ nautical mile bathymetry had to be adjusted in order to account for the fact that even at that scale many relevant topographic features are not resolved. Current velocity, salinity and turbulence observations during a medium intensity inflow event through the Øresund are then compared to the model results. Given the general problems of point to point comparisons between observations and model simulations, the agreement is fairly good with the characteristic features of the inflow event well represented by the model simulations. Two different bulk measures for mixing activity are then introduced, the vertically integrated decay of salinity variance, which is equal to the production of micro-scale salinity variance, and the vertically integrated turbulent salt flux, which is related to an increase of potential energy due to vertical mixing of stably stratified flow. Both measures give qualitatively similar results and identify the Drogden and Darss Sills as well as the Bornholm Channel as mixing hot spots. Further regions of strong mixing are the dense bottom current pathways from these sills into the Arkona Sea, areas around Kriegers Flak (a shoal in the western Arkona Sea) and north–west of the island of Rügen.     

Climate Change Policy Targets and the Role of Technological Change

In this paper, we present results of simulationexperiments with the TIME-model on the issue ofmitigation strategies with regard to greenhouse gases.The TIME-model is an integrated system dynamics worldenergy model that takes into account the fact that the systemhas an inbuilt inertia and endogenouslearning-by-doing dynamics, besides the more commonelements of price-induced demand response and fuelsubstitution. First, we present four scenarios tohighlight the importance of assumptions on innovationsin energy technology in assessing the extent to whichCO₂ emissions have to be reduced. The inertia ofthe energy system seems to make a rise ofCO₂ emissions in the short term almostunavoidable. It is concluded that for the populationand economic growth assumptions of the IPCC IS92ascenario, only a combination of supply- anddemand-side oriented technological innovations incombination with policy measures can bring the targetof CO₂-concentration stabilization at 550 ppmv bythe year 2100 within reach. This will probably beassociated with a temporary increase in the overallenergy expenditures in the world economy. Postponingthe policy measures will be more disadvantageous,and less innovation in energy technology willhappen.     

Effect of atmospheric stability on the growth of surface gravity waves

In this paper we study the effect of atmospheric stability on the growth of surface gravity waves. To that end we numerically solved the Taylor-Goldstein equation for wind profiles which deviate from a logarithmic form because stratification affects the turbulent momentum transport. Using Charnock's relation for the roughness height z ₀ of the wind profile, it is argued that the growth rate of the wave depends on the dimensionless phase velocity c/u _* (where u _* is the friction velocity) and a measure of the effect of atmospheric stability, namely the dimensionless Obukhov length gL/u _* ², whereas it only depends weakly on gz _t /u _* ² (where z _t is the roughness height of the temperature profile). Remarkably for a given value of u _* /c, the growth rate is larger for a stable stratification (L > 0) than for an unstable one (L < 0). We explain why this is the case. If, on the other hand, one considers the growth rate as a function of c/U ₁₀ (where U ₁₀ is the windspeed at 10 m), the situation reverses for c/U ₁₀ < 1. For practical application in wave prediction models, we propose a new parameterization of the growth rate of the waves which is an improvement of the Snyder et al. (1981) proposal because the effect of stability is taken into account.     

Early Cretaceous (late Berriasian to early Aptian) palaeoceanographic change along the northwestern Tethyan margin (Vocontian Trough,southeastern France): δ13C, δ18O and Sr-isotope belemnite and whole-rock records

Stable carbon, oxygen, and strontium isotope records were obtained from uppermost Hauterivian to lowermost Aptian belemnite rostra, which were collected in well-dated sections from the Vocontian Trough (southeastern France). This data set complements previously published belemnite-isotope records from the uppermost Berriasian-Hauterivian interval from the same basin. The belemnite carbon and oxygen isotope record is compared to the carbonate bulk-rock isotope record from the same sections, and from additional Italian sections. With regards to their long-term trends, both belemnite and whole-rock δ¹⁸O records are well correlated, except for the uppermost Hauterivian-lower Barremian interval, within which they deviate. This discrepancy is interpreted to be linked to the latest Hauterivian Faraoni oceanic anoxic event and its early Barremian aftermath. The Faraoni level is characterized by enhanced sea-water stratification, probably induced by the onset of a warmer and more humid climate along the northern Tethyan margin. The early Barremian was characterized by stronger vertical sea-water mixing reflected by a decrease in density contrast between sea-surface and deeper waters. The belemnite oxygen isotope record shows a more stable evolution with smaller fluctuations than its bulk-rock counterpart, which indicates that deeper water masses were not as much subjected to density fluctuations as sea-surface water. The comparison of belemnite and bulk-rock carbon isotope records allows observing the impact of regional influence exerted by platform carbonate ooze shedding on the carbon cycle. Discrepancies in the two records are observed during time of photozoan carbonate platform growth. The strontium isotopic record shows a gradual increase from the uppermost Berriasian to the uppermost lower Barremian followed by a rapid decrease until the uppermost Barremian and a renewed small increase within the lowermost Aptian. The major inflection point in the uppermost lower Barremian appears to predate the onset in the formation of the Ontong-Java volcanic plateau.     

Optimizing the Number of Double-Differenced Observations for GPS Networks in Support of Deformation Monitoring Applications

Deformation monitoring using GPS is usually carried out by installing and operating a local network of GPS receivers mounted on the deforming body, e. g., the flanks of a volcano. For continuous monitoring applications a near-real-time, epoch-by-epoch solution obtained from multi-baseline processing is desired in order to take into account between-baseline correlations and to detect movements over as short a period of time as possible. In the case of the volcano monitoring application, the sides of the volcano will block out part of the sky, hence the receivers are not likely to track a lot of satellites that are visible from all receiver stations at the same time. If the usual base-station/base-satellite approach is used in the baseline processing, only the common satellites are considered, resulting in the number of possible double-differenced observables being comparatively low; hence a ot of valuable information may be lost. The proposed method, based on the work by Saalfeld (1999), considers satellites that are visible from a small number of network stations only. Thus the number of independent double-differenced observables can be maximized in order to obtain a better solution. A numerical example is given that verifies the improved solutions that can be obtained using this data processing approach. ? 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.