Correlations in aftershock and seismicity patterns

Correlations in space and time play a fundamental role in earthquake processes. One direct manifestation of the effects of correlations is the occurrence of aftershocks due to the stress transfer in the vicinity of a main shock. Less obvious and more speculative changes in correlations may occur in the background seismicity before large earthquakes. Using statistical physics it is possible to introduce a measure of spatial correlations through a correlation length. This quantity characterizes how local fluctuations can influence the occurrence of earthquakes over distances comparable with the correlation length. In this work, the physical basis of spatial correlations of earthquakes is discussed in the context of critical phenomena and the percolation problem. The method of two-point correlation function is applied to the seismicity of California. Well defined variations in time of the correlation length are found for aftershock sequences and background seismicity. The scaling properties of our obtained distributions are analyzed with respect to changes in several scaling parameters such as lower magnitude cutoff of earthquakes, the maximum time interval between earthquakes, and the spatial size of the area considered. This scaling behavior can be described in a unified manner by utilizing the multifractal fit. Utilizing the percolation approach the time evolution of clusters of earthquakes is studied with the correlation length defined in terms of the radius of gyration of clusters. This method is applied to the seismicity of California.     

The structure and dynamics of 2-dimensional fluids in swelling clays

The interlayer pores of swelling 2:1 clays provide an ideal 2-dimensional environment in which to study confined fluids. In this paper we discuss our understanding of the structure and dynamics of interlayer fluid species in expanded clays, based primarily on the outcome of recent molecular modelling and neutron scattering studies. Counterion solvation is compared with that measured in bulk solutions, and at a local level the cation-oxygen coordination is found to be remarkably similar in these two environments. However, for the monovalent ions the contribution to the first coordination shell from the clay surfaces increases with counterion radius. This gives rise to inner-sphere (surface) complexes in the case of potassium and caesium. In this context, the location of the negative clay surface charge (i.e. arising from octahedral or tetrahedral substitution) is also found to be of major importance. Divalent cations, such as calcium, eagerly solvate to form outer-sphere complexes. These complexes are able to pin adjacent clay layers together, and thereby prevent colloidal swelling. Confined water molecules form hydrogen bonds to each other and to the clays' surfaces. In this way their local environment relaxes to close to the bulk water structure within two molecular layers of the clay surface. Finally, we discuss the way in which the simple organic molecules methane, methanol and ethylene glycol behave in the interlayer region of hydrated clays. Quasi-elastic neutron scattering of isotopically labelled interlayer CH₃OD and (CH₂OD)₂ in deuterated clay allows us to measure the diffusion of the CH₃- and CH₂-groups in both clay and liquid environments. We find that in both the one-layer methanol solvates and the two-layer glycol solvates the diffusion of the most mobile organic molecules is close to that in the bulk solution.     

Precambrian fluvial deposits: Enigmatic palaeohydrological data from the c. 2–1.9 Ga Waterberg Group, South Africa

Precambrian fluvial systems, lacking the influence of rooted vegetation, probably were characterised by flashy surface runoff, low bank stability, broad channels with abundant bedload, and faster rates of channel migration; consequently, a braided fluvial style is generally accepted. Pre-vegetational braided river systems, active under highly variable palaeoclimatic conditions, may have been more widespread than are modern, ephemeral dry-land braided systems. Aeolian deflation of fine fluvial detritus does not appear to have been prevalent. With the onset of large cratons by the Neoarchaean–Palaeoproterozoic, very large, perennial braided river systems became typical. The c. 2.06–1.88 Ga Waterberg Group, preserved within a Main and a smaller Middelburg basin on the Kaapvaal craton, was deposited largely by alluvial/braided-fluvial and subordinate palaeo-desert environments, within fault-bounded, possibly pull-apart type depositories.

Palaeohydrological data obtained from earlier work in the Middelburg basin (Wilgerivier Formation) are compared to such data derived from the correlated Blouberg Formation, situated along the NE margin of the Main basin. Within the preserved Blouberg depository, palaeohydrological parameters estimated from clast size and cross-bed set thickness data, exhibit rational changes in their values, either in a down-palaeocurrent direction, or from inferred basin margin to palaeo-basin centre. In both the Wilgerivier and Blouberg Formations, calculated palaeoslope values (derived from two separate formulae) plot within the gap separating typical alluvial fan gradients from those which characterise rivers (cf. [Blair, T.C., McPherson, J.G., 1994. Alluvial fans and their natural distinction from rivers based on morphology, hydraulic processes, sedimentary processes, and facies assemblages. J. Sediment. Res. A64, 450–489.]). Although it may be argued that such data support possibly unique fluvial styles within the Precambrian, perhaps related to a combination of major global-scale tectono-thermal and atmospheric–palaeoclimatic events, a simpler explanation of these apparently enigmatic palaeoslope values may be pertinent. Of the two possible palaeohydrological formulae for calculating palaeoslope, one provides results close to typical fluvial gradients; the other formula relies on preserved channel-width data. We suggest that the latter will not be reliable due to problematic preservation of original channel-widths within an active braided fluvial system. We thus find no unequivocal support for a unique fluvial style for the Precambrian, beyond that generally accepted for that period and discussed briefly in the first paragraph.     

A Decision Support System for the Evaluation of Eco-engineering Strategies for Slope Protection

A decision support system (DSS) has been developed to assist expert and non-expert users in the evaluation and selection of eco-engineering strategies for slope protection. This DSS combines a qualitative hazard assessment of erosion and mass movements with a detailed catalogue of eco-engineering strategies for slope protection of which the suitability is evaluated in relation to the data entered. The slope decision support system (SDSS) is a knowledge based DSS in which knowledge is stored in frames containing rules that can evaluate the available information for a project, stored as project specific information (PSI) in a data file. The advantages of such a system are that it accepts incomplete information and that the qualitative nature of the information does not instil the user with a sense of unjustified exactitude. By its multidisciplinary and progressive nature, the DSS will be of value during the initial stages of an eco-engineering project when data collection and the potential of different eco-engineering strategies are considered. The accent of the output of the DSS is on the application of eco-engineering strategies for slope protection as an environmentally-friendly solution aiding sustainable development. For its acceptance within the engineering community, the DSS needs to prove its predictive capacity. Therefore, its performance has been benchmarked against successful and unsuccessful cases of slope stabilisation using eco-engineering. The target audience and the areas of application of this DSS are reviewed and the strategies for further development in this area suggested.     

On the origin of rock fragment mulches on Vertisols: A case study from the Ethiopian highlands

Many Vertisols in Tigray, Ethiopia, typically carry a discontinuous rock fragment (RF, size 0.5–> 40 · 10^− 2 m) cover with 10 to 100 RFs m^− 2. Such RF mulches are of agricultural and environmental significance because they influence the water balance in the underlying soils and the crop yield. Natural RF concentrations are mostly considered as eolian or hydraulic lag deposits, or as the result of lateral transport over the soil surface from a rock outcrop, upslope. In cultivated areas RF mulches can develop by tillage.This paper presents the case of a natural RF mulch whose lithology indicates that the RFs are up-squeezed by the local Vertisol. The study site is located in the pass of Enda Maryam, Tigray, Northern Ethiopia (39°8′ E and 13°36′ N). A circular area of 10 m diameter, about 200 m away from the water divide in the valley has been cleared annually between 01/1999 and 05/2003. During this period, 625 RFs, 17 being > 7.5 · 10^− 2 m in size, totalling a mass of nearly 62 kg, have been collected. After correction for measurement procedures, the rate of RF up-warping by the Vertisol at Enda Maryam is assessed at 5 RFs m^− 2 in 3 years. At this rate of appearance, the formation of current RF concentrations on top of active valley Vertisols is only a matter of 10^1–2 years, provided the availability of RFs below the soil surface.Although important underground displacements were measured in the Vertisol between 01/1999 and 05/2002, the supposed link between up-squeezing of RFs and plastic deformations of ‘chimney’, ‘diapir’ or ‘intrusion’-like type in the Vertisol could not be evidenced. Instead, RFs are clearly concentrated on the soil surface as well as in depth, along the existing vertical desiccation cracks, often > 1 m deep which display polygonal configurations at the soil surface. Further, bundles of slickensides containing some RFs, have been mapped at the base of the Vertisol. The slickenside configuration suggests that the RF-bearing substrate is being scraped off.While the underground displacement of RFs along active slickensides seems normal, the process of RFs ascending in ‘upright’ position in the edge of desiccation cracks needs explanation. The closure of a desiccation crack is a peristaltic-like movement, following ascent or descent of the capillary fringe. It is hypothesized that this movement gradually pushes the RF to the surface or to another place or level in the soil profile where the crack closes in last instance.The apparent young age of the valley Vertisol mulches in Ethiopia might indicate the very recent formation of yearly recurrent desiccation cracks of Vertisols in the area. Available information confirms that most valleys in the study area used to be perennially marshy. Under these conditions no movements of RFs in the soil profile are expected to occur. Gullying, leading to pronounced seasonal desiccation of the Vertisols, started in several cases not more than 50 years ago.     

Results from a Multi-disciplinary Sedimentary Pilot Study of Tectonic Lake Iznik (NW Turkey) – Geochemistry and Paleolimnology of the Recent Past

A limnogeological reconnaissance study was carried out on Lake Iznik, located in the southeast of the Marmara region of Turkey, involving a seismic survey and collection of short sediment cores. This lake is located on the middle branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), a transform plate boundary between the Eurasian and Anatolian Plates. It is, therefore, tectonically active and offers an opportunity to investigate the interplay of sedimentary and seismo-tectonic processes, as well as climate change and human impact in the region. Short cores of the three sub-basins, maximum length of 35.5 cm, recovered non-laminated, blackish clays and silts with varying amounts of biogenic and minerogenic (allochthonous, autochthonous) material, which documented almost the last 80 years of deposition and environmental history. High sedimentation rates in the deeper core sections are accompanied by changes in land use (conversion of woodland to farmland) in the northern areas of Lake Iznik, which caused the deposition of more weathered material (high K/Na ratios) and higher contents of Mn in the lake. A tendency towards eutrophic conditions within the last 20 years is indicated by high nutrient content (N, TOC, P), decreasing C/N-ratios, and characteristic diatom and cladoceran associations. Also increased pollution is revealed by higher Pb, Cu, and Zn contents and increased supply of human and animal faeces (high coprostanol content) during the last two decades. But simultaneous lower sedimentation rates towards the core tops complicate the reconstruction of recent and past eutrophication and pollution states of Lake Iznik. This requires an extension of the pilot study and deeper sediment cores, to recover non-anthropogenic influenced sediment levels.     

Gender and voluntary work in late adulthood in rural communities in the Netherlands

This article discusses the involvement of older women and men in voluntary work in rural communities in the Netherlands. Gender, ageing and civil society form the core concepts in the article. Politicians and policy makers in the Netherlands are worried about the perceived decline of civil society and about the consequences of this decline for specific categories of older women in terms of well-being and social exclusion. The paper presents the results of two surveys of involvement of older women and men in civic organisations, voluntary work and local actions. The surveys indicate high levels of involvement of both women and men. No gender differences are found in activity level. However, the data demonstrate the gendered nature of civil society. Women are more engaged in informal voluntary work and informal local actions, while men are more active in formal organisations and functions. This gender segmentation is not absolute, however. Many older women and men transgress the traditional feminine–masculine boundaries. The surveys highlight the involvement of women and men in rural communities, but indicate lower activity levels in urban areas.     

Denudation and cooling of the Lake Teletskoye Region in the Altai Mountains (South Siberia) as revealed by apatite fission-track thermochronology

Lake Teletskoye occupies a narrow graben located in the northwestern sector of the Altai fold belt in South Siberia. The lake basin is thought to have formed during the Pleistocene as a distant result of the Cenozoic collision of India and Eurasia that caused a tectonic reactivation of the Palaeozoic Gorny–Altai (GA) and West Sayan (WS) blocks.The present work reports of a pilot fission-track study performed on 13 apatite separates collected from rocks that were sampled along two profiles in close proximity of the lake. The age–length data and AFT thermochronological modelling reveal two important phases of cooling in the Altai Mountains, a first one during the Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous and a second one that started in the Miocene–Pliocene and that persists until today. The first event is interpreted to result from uplift-induced denudation probably related to the closure of the Mongol–Okhotsk Ocean; the second event can be linked to the young Cenozoic movements that lie at the origin of the formation of the Lake Teletskoye basin.     

Al hematites prepared by homogeneous precipitation of oxinates: material characterization and determination of the Morin transition

A novel method for synthesis of aluminium hematites, based upon the homogeneous precipitation of Fe and Al oxinates in various proportions, is presented. The precursor precipitates are heated in air at 700?°C. X-ray diffraction, thermal analyses, BET, FTIR, optical reflection analysis, TEM and Mössbauer spectroscopy at room temperature and 80?K of the resulting products indicate that single-phase hematites are formed with structural Al substitution of up to 10 at%. Interestingly, the particle size (>100?nm) is not substantially reduced by the Al content. Although it remains difficult to obtain a homogeneously distributed Al substitution in the final hematite, this processing line offers a unique opportunity to separate the effects of grain size and Al substitution on the Morin transition temperature (T _M) of Al hematite. From the comparison between the present hematites and a series of Al-substituted hematites with lepidocrocite as precursor, it could be shown that the effect on T _M, associated with a change of a factor 10 in grain size, is about 1/3 of the effect caused by a change of 10 in the degree of substitution. Finally, it is suggested that proper thermal treatments under different conditions of the same precursors are likely to produce spinel phases.