Probabilistic analysis of landslide potential of an inclined uniform soil layer of infinite length: theorem

A critical relation for mobilization (failure) of an inclined, uniform soil layer is developed, based on the requirement for balancing the driving stress and the resistance stress acting on the soil layer. Taking into consideration of the uncertainties of parameters of the considered soil layer, the equation of the failure probability (Eq. 18) and the equation of the critical slope at various probabilities of failure (Eq. 22) for the soil layer by applying the first-order second-moment method (FOSM) were developed. The failure probabilities at various mean relative water depths subject to the upper and lower values of the coefficients of variations of parameters and two inclined angles of the soil layers are also estimated by using the Monte Carlo simulation method (MCSM) as well as by using FOSM for comparisons. The results obtained by FOSM are in good agreement with that obtained by MCSM, but the former is more efficient. Given the mean values and the coefficients of variation of related parameters of the soil layer, one can easily estimate the failure probability and the critical failure slope of the soil layer by applying the equations or graphs developed in the present study.     

Mean Free-Air Gravity Anomalies in the Mountains

Mean free-air gravity anomalies are often needed in geodesy for gravity field modelling. Two possible ways of compiling the mean free-air gravity anomalies are discussed. One way is via simple Bouguer gravity anomalies and the second and more time consuming way is via refined Bouguer gravity anomalies. In flat areas the differences between using any of the two ways should not be significant. In the mountains however, every effect introducing a high dependency, such as e.g. terrain effect, can negatively affect the interpolation process. In fact, a numerical experiment conducted in one part of Rocky Mountains revealed large and systematic differences. The effect of these differences on the geoid model is more then two meters in the test area. Our investigation shows that this bias is caused by the location of gravity measurement points, chosen mostly on hill-tops. At such points, the terrain correction to gravity is systematically larger than the mean value of the correction. Therefore, it is not possible to prevent the mean free-air gravity anomalies obtained from simple Bouguer gravity anomalies from having a systematic bias. One can see this bias as a result of the aliasing effect because the simple Bouguer gravity anomalies in the mountains contain a higher frequency signal (terrain effect) that is, according to sampling theorem, impossible to reconstruct by sparse measured gravity data, see e.g. (Goos et al., 2003). Therefore, the more rigorous way of computing the mean free-air gravity anomalies is via refined Bouguer gravity anomalies.     

Paraxial ray methods for anisotropic inhomogeneous media

A new formalism of surface-to-surface paraxial matrices allows a very general and flexible formulation of the paraxial ray theory, equally valid in anisotropic and isotropic inhomogeneous layered media. The formalism is based on conventional dynamic ray tracing in Cartesian coordinates along a reference ray. At any user-selected pair of points of the reference ray, a pair of surfaces may be defined. These surfaces may be arbitrarily curved and oriented, and may represent structural interfaces, data recording surfaces, or merely formal surfaces. A newly obtained factorization of the interface propagator matrix allows to transform the conventional 6 × 6 propagator matrix in Cartesian coordinates into a 6 × 6 surface-to-surface paraxial matrix. This matrix defines the transformation of paraxial ray quantities from one surface to another. The redundant non-eikonal and ray-tangent solutions of the dynamic ray-tracing system in Cartesian coordinates can be easily eliminated from the 6 × 6 surface-to-surface paraxial matrix, and it can be reduced to 4 × 4 form. Both the 6 × 6 and 4 × 4 surface-to-surface paraxial matrices satisfy useful properties, particularly the symplecticity. In their 4 × 4 reduced form, they can be used to solve important boundary-value problems of a four-parametric system of paraxial rays, connecting the two surfaces, similarly as the well-known surface-to-surface matrices in isotropic media in ray-centred coordinates. Applications of such boundary-value problems include the two-point eikonal, relative geometrical spreading, Fresnel zones, the design of migration operators, and more.     

Influence of crack distribution of rocks on P‐wave velocity anisotropy – a laboratory and field scale study‡

The purpose of this paper is the comparison of P‐wave velocity and velocity anisotropy, measured at different scales under laboratory and field conditions. A shallow seismic refraction survey with shot/receiver spacing of up to 10 m was carried out on a flat outcrop of lhertzolite in the southern part of the Balmuccia massif. Oriented rock samples were also obtained from the locality. The particular advantage of the laboratory method used is the possibility of measuring velocity in any direction under controlled conditions. Laboratory tests were made on spherical peridotite samples, 50 mm in diameter, by ultrasonic velocity measurements in 132 directions (meridian and parallel networks) under confining stress ranging from atmospheric to 400 MPa. The mean P‐wave velocity of the field and laboratory data differed by between 20–30%. In addition, P‐wave velocity anisotropy of 25% was detected in the field data. Whereas the anisotropy in the laboratory samples in the same orientation as the field surveys was less than 2%. This observed scaling factor is related to the different sampling sizes and the difference in frequencies of applied elastic waves. With an ultrasonic wavelength of 10 mm, laboratory samples represent a continuum. The field velocities and velocity anisotropy reflect the presence of cracks, which the laboratory rock samples do not contain. Three sub‐vertical fracture sets with differing strikes were observed in the field outcrop. Estimates of fracture stiffness from the velocity anisotropy data are consistent with other published values. These results highlight the difficulty of using laboratory velocity estimates to interpret field data.     

40Ar/39Ar constraints on the temporal evolution of Graciosa Island, Azores (Portugal)

Lava flows spanning the eruptive record of Graciosa Island (Azores archipelago) and a gabbro xenolith were dated by ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar in order to constrain the Pleistocene and Holocene volcanic evolution of the island. The results range from 1.05 Ma to 3.9 ka, whereas prior published K–Ar and ¹⁴C ages range from 620 to 2 ka. The formation of the Serra das Fontes shield volcano started at minimum 1.05 Ma, and the magmatic system was active for ca. 600 ky, as suggested by the formation of the gabbro xenolith by magmatic differentiation. Evolved magmas making up the Serra das Fontes–Serra Branca composite volcano were generated at ca. 450 ka. After a period of ca. 110 ky of volcanic inactivity and erosion of volcanic edifices, volcanism was reactivated with the formation of the Vitória Unit NW platform. Later, the development of the Vulcão Central Unit started with the formation of monogenetic cones located to the south of the Serra das Fontes–Serra Branca–Vitória Unit. This volcanism became progressively more evolved and was concentrated in a main eruptive center, forming the Vulcão Central stratovolcano with an age older than 50 ka. The caldera related to this stratovolcano is older than 47 ka and was followed by effusion of basaltic magmas into the caldera, resulting in the formation of a lava lake, which ultimately spilled over the caldera rim at ca. 11 ka. The most recent eruptions on Graciosa formed two small pyroclastic cones within the caldera and the Pico do Timão cone within the Vitória Unit at ca 3.9 ka.     

Local Seismic Events in the Area of Poland Based on Data from the PASSEQ 2006–2008 Experiment

PASSEQ 2006–2008 (Passive Seismic Experiment in TESZ; Wilde-Piórko et al. 2008) was the biggest passive seismic experiment carried out so far in the area of Central Europe (Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic and Lithuania). 196 seismic stations (including 49 broadband seismometers) worked simultaneously for over two years. During the experiment, multiple types of data recorders and seismometers were used, making the analysis more complex and time consuming. The dataset was unified and repaired to start the detection of local seismic events. Two different approaches for detection were applied for stations located in Poland. The first one used standard STA/LTA triggers (Carl Johnson’s STA/LTA algorithm) and grid search to classify and locate the events. The result was manually verified. The second approach used Real Time Recurrent Network (RTRN) detection (Wiszniowski et al. 2014). Both methods gave similar results, showing four previously unknown seismic events located in the Gulf of Gdańsk area, situated in the southern Baltic Sea. In this paper we discuss both detection methods with their pros and cons (accuracy, efficiency, manual work required, scalability). We also show details of all detected and previously unknown events in the discussed area.     

Temporal Variations in Sea Surface Topography and Dynamics of the Earth's Inertia Ellipsoid

Temporal variations in the nine elements of the Earth's inertia ellipsoid due to sea surface topography dynamics were derived from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data 1993 - 1996. The variations amount to about 10 mm in the position of the center of the Earth's inertia ellipsoid (E _i ), 0.15' in the polar axis direction of E _i and to about 0.0003 in the denominator of its polar flattening. The approach used is based on the temporal variations of distortions computed by means of the geopotential model EGM96 which is used as reference.     

Effect of rainfall as a component of climate change on estuarine fish production in Queensland, Australia

The speculation that climate change may impact on sustainable fish production suggests a need to understand how these effects influence fish catch on a broad scale. With a gross annual value of A$ 2.2 billion, the fishing industry is a significant primary industry in Australia. Many commercially important fish species use estuarine habitats such as mangroves, tidal flats and seagrass beds as nurseries or breeding grounds and have lifecycles correlated to rainfall and temperature patterns. Correlation of catches of mullet (e.g. Mugil cephalus) and barramundi (Lates calcarifer) with rainfall suggests that fisheries may be sensitive to effects of climate change. This work reviews key commercial fish and crustacean species and their link to estuaries and climate parameters. A conceptual model demonstrates ecological and biophysical links of estuarine habitats that influences capture fisheries production. The difficulty involved in explaining the effect of climate change on fisheries arising from the lack of ecological knowledge may be overcome by relating climate parameters with long-term fish catch data. Catch per unit effort (CPUE), rainfall, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and catch time series for specific combinations of climate seasons and regions have been explored and surplus production models applied to Queensland's commercial fish catch data with the program CLIMPROD. Results indicate that up to 30% of Queensland's total fish catch and up to 80% of the barramundi catch variation for specific regions can be explained by rainfall often with a lagged response to rainfall events. Our approach allows an evaluation of the economic consequences of climate parameters on estuarine fisheries, thus highlighting the need to develop forecast models and manage estuaries for future climate change impact by adjusting the quota for climate change sensitive species. Different modelling approaches are discussed with respect to their forecast ability.     

Vertical seismic profiling using a daisy‐chained deployment of fibre‐optic cables in four wells simultaneously – Case study at the Ketzin carbon dioxide storage site

The geological storage of carbon dioxide is considered as one of the measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to mitigate global warming. Operators of storage sites are required to demonstrate safe containment and stable behaviour of the storage complex that is achieved by geophysical and geochemical monitoring, combined with reservoir simulations. For site characterization, as well as for imaging the carbon dioxide plume in the reservoir complex and detecting potential leakage, surface and surface‐borehole time‐lapse seismic monitoring surveys are the most widespread and established tools. At the Ketzin pilot site for carbon dioxide storage, permanently installed fibre‐optic cables, initially deployed for distributed temperature sensing, were used as seismic receiver arrays, demonstrating their ability to provide high‐resolution images of the storage formation. A vertical seismic profiling experiment was acquired using 23 source point locations and the daisy‐chained deployment of a fibre‐optic cable in four wells as a receiver array. The data were used to generate a 3D vertical seismic profiling cube, complementing the large‐scale 3D surface seismic measurements by a high resolution image of the reservoir close to the injection well. Stacking long vibro‐sweeps at each source location resulted in vertical seismic profiling shot gathers characterized by a signal‐to‐noise ratio similar to gathers acquired using geophones. A detailed data analysis shows strong dependency of data quality on borehole conditions with significantly better signal‐to‐noise ratio in regions with good coupling conditions.