On the possibility of long-range forecasts of geomagnetic activity

Summary The relation between geomagnetic activity and solar activity is studied in long intervals and in individual 11-year cycles, characterized by certain basic parameters, in connection with investigating the prognostic significance of long-term fluctuations of geomagnetic activity [1, 2]. A number of properties as well as sufficiently close relations with a prognostic significance have been found, such as the secular variation of geomagnetic activity, the 22-year cycle of change in the form of the behaviour of geomagnetic activity in 11-year cycles, long-term concurrence of solar and geomagnetic activity and its changes within the 11-year cycle, relations between solar and geomagnetic parameters characterizing the 11-year cycle.

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Numerical modelling of time-harmonic seismic wave fields in simple structures by the gaussian beam method. part I

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Seabirds in the North Sea Demobilized and Killed by Polyisobutylene (C4H8)n (PIB)

This paper reports on a mass stranding of seabirds in the North Sea in December 1998. Hundreds of birds were washed ashore alive in Zeeland (SW Netherlands), covered in a whitish, sticky substance, and were transported to a rehabilitation centre. About 10 days later, more (dead) casualties washed ashore further to the north on Texel and along the mainland coast, again covered in a glue-like substance. Common guillemots Uria aalge, northern fulmars Fulmarus glacialis and common scoters Melanitta nigra were the most numerous birds affected in this incident. Both strandings were temporarily (10 days) and geographically separated (ca. 120 km apart), but were apparently caused by a single source of pollution. The meteorology at the time was consistent with the course of a single incident. At least 1100 seabirds were affected by this substance, soon identified as polyisobutylene (C₄H₈)_n. PIB is known as a non-toxic, non-aggressive substance. Volunteers cleaning the birds in the rehabilitation centre reported serious discomfort and dizziness and the soft parts of the PIB-affected birds found dead (bill, eye, throat, feet, webs) appeared to dissolve in a few days time. Both effects cannot be attributed to PIB, and are therefore unexplained. Although the dumping of PIB in the marine environment is not explicitly prohibited under MARPOL, the effects on wildlife observed are enough to plead for counter-measures.     

Magma Intrusions and Earthquake Swarm Occurrence in the Western Part of the Bohemian Massif

We are proposing a hypothesis that earthquake swarms in the West Bohemia/Vogtland seismoactive region are generated by magmatic activity currently transported to the upper crustal layers. We assume that the injection of magma and/or related fluids and gases causes hydraulic fracturing which is manifested as an earthquake swarm at the surface. Our statements are supported by three spheres of evidence coming from the western part of the Bohemian Massif: characteristic manifestations of recent geodynamic activity, the information from the neighbouring KTB deep drilling project and from the 9HR seismic reflection profile, and the detailed analysis of local seismological data. (1) Recent manifestations of geodynamic activity include Quaternary volcanism, rich CO ₂ emissions, anomalies of mantle-derived ³ He, mineral springs, moffets, etc. (2) The fluid injection experiment in the neighbouring KTB deep borehole at a depth of 9 km induced hundreds of micro-earthquakes. This indicates that the Earth's crust is near frictional failure in the western part of the Bohemian Massif and an addition of a small amount of energy to the tectonic stress is enough to induce an earthquake. Some pronounced reflections in the closely passing 9HR seismic reflection profile are interpreted as being caused by recent magmatic sills in the crust. (3) The local broadband seismological network WEBNET provides high quality data that enable precise localization of seismic events. The events of the January 1997 earthquake swarm are confined to an extremely narrow volume at depths of about 9 km. Their seismograms display pronounced reflections of P- and S-waves in the upper crust. The analysis of the process of faulting has disclosed a considerable variability of the source mechanism during the swarm. We conclude that the mechanism of intraplate earthquake swarms generated by magma intrusions is similar to that of induced seismicity. As the recent tectonic processes and manifestations of geodynamic activity are similar in European areas with repeated earthquake swarm occurrence (Bohemian Massif, French Massif Central, Rhine Graben), we assume that magma intrusions and related fluid and gas release at depths of about 10 km are the universal cause of intraplate earthquake swarm generation     

Statistical Analysis of Water Quality Parameters in Seven Major Serbian Rivers during 2004‒2013 Period

Rivers on territory of the Republic of Serbia can be separated to three sea drainage basins: Black, Adriatic and Aegean. Majority of rivers belong to the Black Sea drainage basin. The Danube is the most important river in Serbia and one of the most important rivers of Europe. All rivers investigated in this paper represent direct or indirect tributaries of the Danube River and as that, they are belonging to the Black Sea drainage basin. In this study, the water quality status and the spatial and temporal trends of seven major rivers in Serbia were assessed through the application of ten parameters of Water Quality Index. Ten year (2004–2013) public database of environmental data was used. Into considerations were taken differences between every river individually and difference between sample positions on every single river. Based on the chemical parameters of water quality, it can be seen that the biggest rivers in Serbia show different values of WQ parameters. The highest WQ value is measured on the Drina River, while the lowest value is measured on the Ju?na Morava and the Tisza River. Analyses of parameters per period of year show that there is a statistically significant difference between values during warm and cold periods.     

Atmospheric circulation in regional climate models over Central Europe: links to surface air temperature and the influence of driving data

The study examines simulation of atmospheric circulation, represented by circulation indices (flow direction, strength and vorticity), and links between circulation and daily surface air temperatures in regional climate models (RCMs) over Central Europe. We explore control simulations of five high-resolution RCMs from the ENSEMBLES project driven by re-analysis (ERA-40) and the same global climate model (ECHAM5 GCM) plus of one RCM (RCA) driven by different GCMs. The aims are to (1) identify errors in RCM-simulated distributions of circulation indices in individual seasons, (2) identify errors in simulated temperatures under particular circulation indices, and (3) compare performance of individual RCMs with respect to the driving data. Although most of the RCMs qualitatively reflect observed distributions of the airflow indices, each produces distributions significantly different from the observations. General biases include overestimation of the frequency of strong flow days and of strong cyclonic vorticity. Some circulation biases obviously propagate from the driving data. ECHAM5 and all simulations driven by ECHAM5 underestimate frequency of easterly flow, mainly in summer. Except for HIRHAM, however, all RCMs driven by ECHAM5 improve on the driving GCM in simulating atmospheric circulation. The influence on circulation characteristics in the nested RCM differs between GCMs, as demonstrated in a set of RCA simulations with different driving data. The driving data control on circulation in RCA is particularly weak for the BCM GCM, in which case RCA substantially modifies (but does not improve) the circulation from the driving data in both winter and summer. Those RCMs with the most distorted atmospheric circulation are HIRHAM driven by ECHAM5 and RCA driven by BCM. Relatively strong relationships between circulation indices and surface air temperatures were found in the observed data for Central Europe. The links differ by season and are usually stronger for daily maxima than minima. RCMs qualitatively reproduce these relationships. Effects of the driving model biases were found on RCMs’ performance in reproducing not only atmospheric circulation but also the links to surface temperature. However, the RCM formulation appears to be more important than the driving data in representing the latter. Differences of the circulation-to-temperature links among the RCA simulations are smaller and the links tend to be more realistic compared to the driving GCMs.     

Organochlorine pesticides in fish from the southern Baltic Sea: levels, bioaccumulation features and temporal trends during the 1995-2006 period

The levels of HCH isomers, HCB and summation DDTs were determined in five species of Baltic fish collected during 1995-2006. Some downward time trends of HCH isomer, pp'-DDE and pp'-DDD concentrations in Baltic fish were observed; in contrast, HCB and DDT concentrations did not exhibit any obvious trend. Concentrations of summation HCHs expressed on a lipid weight basis were very similar in all species studied. In contrast, concentrations of summation DDTs varied in tested species. The most abundant HCH isomer was beta-HCH and among DDT-related compounds, pp'-DDE prevailed. In our investigations the sampling sites were not a crucial factor for organochlorine pesticide concentrations and patterns observed in fish, but the occurrence of several inter-species differences in the bioaccumulation features of OC pesticides were observed. For cod there was a positive correlation between fish size (length) and summation DDT concentration. In herring, sprat and salmon samples, summation DDT concentrations were negatively correlated with fat content.     

Sensitivity of seismic waves to structure

We study how the perturbations of a generally heterogeneous isotropic or anisotropic structure manifest themselves in the wavefield, and which perturbations can be detected within a limited aperture and a limited frequency band. A short-duration broad-band incident wavefield with a smooth frequency spectrum is considered. In-finitesimally small perturbations of elastic moduli and density are decomposed into Gabor functions. The wavefield scattered by the perturbations is then composed of waves scattered by the individual Gabor functions. The scattered waves are estimated using the first-order Born approximation with the paraxial ray approximation. For each incident wave, each Gabor function generates at most 5 scattered waves, propagating in specific directions and having specific polarisations. A Gabor function corresponding to a low wavenumber may generate a single broad-band unconverted wave scattered in forward or narrow-angle directions. A Gabor function corresponding to a high wavenumber usually generates 0 to 5 narrow-band Gaussian packets scattered in wide angles, but may also occasionally generate a narrow-band P to S or S to P converted Gaussian packet scattered in a forward direction, or a broad-band S to P (and even S to S in a strongly anisotropic background) converted wave scattered in wide angles. In this paper, we concentrate on the Gaussian packets caused by narrow-band scattering. For a particular source, each Gaussian packet scattered by a Gabor function at a given spatial location is sensitive to just a single linear combination of 22 values of the elastic moduli and density corresponding to the Gabor function. This information about the Gabor function is lost if the scattered wave does not fall into the aperture covered by the receivers and into the legible frequency band.     

Gully prevention and control: Techniques,failures and effectiveness

Gully erosion is a major environmental problem, posing significant threats to sustainable development. However, insights on techniques to prevent and control gullying are scattered and incomplete, especially regarding failure rates and effectiveness. This review aims to address these issues and contribute to more successful gully prevention and control strategies by synthesizing the data from earlier studies. Preventing gully formation can be done through land use change, applying soil and water conservation techniques or by targeted measures in concentrated flow zones. The latter include measures that increase topsoil resistance and vegetation barriers. Vegetation barriers made of plant residues have the advantage of being immediately effective in protecting against erosion, but have a short life expectancy as compared to barriers made of living vegetation. Once deeply incised, the development of gullies may be controlled by diverting runoff away from the channel, but this comes at the risk of relocating the problem. Additional measures such as headcut filling, channel reshaping and headcut armouring can also be applied. To control gully channels, multiple studies report on the use of check dams and/or vegetation. Reasons for failures of these techniques depend on runoff and sediment characteristics and cross-sectional stability and micro-environment of the gully. In turn, these are controlled by external forcing factors that can be grouped into (i) geomorphology and topography, (ii) climate and (iii) the bio-physical environment. The impact of gully prevention and control techniques is addressed, especially regarding their effect on headcut retreat and network development, the trapping of sediment by check dams and reduction of catchment sediment yield. Overall, vegetation establishment in gully channels and catchments plays a key role in gully prevention and control. Once stabilized, gullies may turn into rehabilitated sites of lush vegetation or cropland, making the return on investment to prevent and control gullies high. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analytical One-Way Plane-Wave Solution in the 1-D Anisotropic “Simplified Twisted Crystal” Model

Analytical expressions for the exact 2 × 2 one-way propagator matrix of a plane S wave, propagating along the axis of spirality in the simple 1-D anisotropic simplified twisted crystal model, are presented. The analytical equations are useful in testing the applicability and accuracy of various approximate wavefield modelling methods, especially of the coupling ray theory and of its various quasi-isotropic approximations and various numerical implementations.In addition to the exact analytical solution of the elastodynamic equation in the simplified twisted crystal model, the analytical solutions of the equations of the four ray methods are given. The ray methods are (a) the coupling ray theory, (b) the coupling ray theory with the quasi-isotropic perturbation of travel times, (c) the anisotropic ray theory, (d) the isotropic ray theory. These four approximate solutions of the elastodynamic equation are roughly compared with the exact solution. Both the exact analytical solution and the analytical ray-theory solutions in the simplified twisted crystal model are also helpful in debugging computer codes for various approximate wavefield modelling methods, especially for the coupling ray theory.