The impact of shale gas on the costs of climate policy

The use of shale gas is commonly considered as a low-cost option for meeting ambitious climate policy targets. This article explores global and country-specific effects of increasing global shale gas exploitation on the energy markets, on greenhouse gas emissions, and on mitigation costs. The global techno-economic partial equilibrium model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) is employed to compare policies which limit global warming to 2°C and baseline scenarios when the availability of shale gas is either high or low. According to the simulation results, a high availability of shale gas has rather small effects on the costs of meeting climate targets in the medium and long term. In the long term, a higher availability of shale gas increases baseline emissions of greenhouse gases for most countries and for the world, and leads to higher compliance costs for most, but not all, countries. Allowing for global trading of emission certificates does not alter these general results. In sum, these findings cast doubt on shale gas’s potential as a low-cost option for meeting ambitious global climate targets.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Many countries with a large shale gas resource base consider the expansion of local shale gas extraction as an option to reduce their GHG emissions. The findings in this article imply that a higher availability of shale gas in these countries might actually increase emissions and mitigation costs for these countries and also for the world. An increase in shale gas extraction may spur a switch from coal to gas electricity generation, thus lowering emissions. At the global level and for many countries, though, this effect is more than offset by a crowding out of renewable and nuclear energy carriers, and by lower energy prices, leading to higher emissions and higher mitigation costs in turn. These findings would warrant a re-evaluation of the climate strategy in most countries relying on the exploitation of shale gas to meet their climate targets.     

For your eyes only? Evaluating a coordinated and multiple views tool with a map,a parallel coordinated plot and a table using an eye-tracking approach

Geographic visualization tools with coordinated and multiple views (CMV) typically provide sets of visualization methods. Such configuration gives users the possibility of investigating data in various visual contexts; however, it can be confusing due to the multiplicity of visual components and interactive functions. We addressed this challenge and conducted an empirical study on how a CMV tool, consisting of a map, a parallel coordinate plot (PCP), and a table, is used to acquire information. We combined a task-based approach with eye-tracking and usability metrics since these methods provide comprehensive insights into users’ behaviour. Our empirical study revealed that the freedom to choose visualization components is appreciated by users. The individuals worked with all the available visualization methods and they often used more than one visualization method when executing tasks. Different views were used in different ways by various individuals, but in a similarly effective way. Even PCP, which is claimed to be problematic, was found to be a handy way of exploring data when accompanied by interactive functions.     

Edge-to-Stem Variability in Wet-Canopy Evaporation From an Urban Tree Row

Evaporation from wet-canopy (\(E_\mathrm{C}\)) and stem (\(E_\mathrm{S}\)) surfaces during rainfall represents a significant portion of municipal-to-global scale hydrologic cycles. For urban ecosystems, \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and \(E_\mathrm{S}\) dynamics play valuable roles in stormwater management. Despite this, canopy-interception loss studies typically ignore crown-scale variability in \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and assume (with few indirect data) that \(E_\mathrm{S}\) is generally \({<}2\%\) of total wet-canopy evaporation. We test these common assumptions for the first time with a spatially-distributed network of in-canopy meteorological monitoring and 45 surface temperature sensors in an urban Pinus elliottii tree row to estimate \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and \(E_\mathrm{S}\) under the assumption that crown surfaces behave as “wet bulbs”. From December 2015 through July 2016, 33 saturated crown periods (195 h of 5-min observations) were isolated from storms for determination of 5-min evaporation rates ranging from negligible to 0.67 \(\hbox {mm h}^{-1}\). Mean \(E_\mathrm{S}\) (0.10 \(\hbox {mm h}^{-1}\)) was significantly lower (\(p < 0.01\)) than mean \(E_\mathrm{C}\) (0.16 \(\hbox {mm h}^{-1}\)). But, \(E_\mathrm{S}\) values often equalled \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and, when scaled to trunk area using terrestrial lidar, accounted for 8–13% (inter-quartile range) of total wet-crown evaporation (\(E_\mathrm{S}+E_\mathrm{C}\) scaled to surface area). \(E_\mathrm{S}\) contributions to total wet-crown evaporation maximized at 33%, showing a general underestimate (by 2–17 times) of this quantity in the literature. Moreover, results suggest wet-crown evaporation from urban tree rows can be adequately estimated by simply assuming saturated tree surfaces behave as wet bulbs, avoiding problematic assumptions associated with other physically-based methods.     

The urban heat island in the city of Poznań as derived from Landsat 5 TM

Deforestation is expanding and accelerating into the remaining areas of undisturbed forest, and the quality of the remaining forests is declining today. Assessing the climatic impacts of deforestation can help to rectify this alarming situation. In this paper, how historical deforestation may affect global climate through interactive ocean and surface albedo is examined using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC). Control and anomaly integrations are performed for 1000 years. In the anomaly case, cropland is significantly expanded since AD 1700. The response of climate in deforested areas is not uniform between the regions. In the background of a global cooling of 0.08 °C occurring with cooler surface air above 0.4 °C across 30° N to 75° N from March to September, the surface albedo increase has a global cooling effect in response to global-scale replacement of forests by cropland, especially over northern mid-high latitudes. The northern mid-latitude (30° N–60° N) suffers a prominent cooling in June, suggesting that this area is most sensitive to cropland expansion through surface albedo. Most regions show a consistent trend between the overall cooling in response to historical deforestation and its resulting cooling due to surface albedo anomaly. Furthermore, the effect of the interactive ocean on shaping the climate response to deforestation is greater than that of prescribed SSTs in most years with a maximum spread of 0.05 °C. This difference is more prominent after year 1800 than that before due to the more marked deforestation. These findings show the importance of the land cover change and the land surface albedo, stressing the necessity to analyze other biogeophysical processes of deforestation using interactive ocean.     

Enhanced geochemical gradients in a marine shallow-water hydrothermal system: Unusual arsenic speciation in horizontal and vertical pore water profiles

The shallow marine hydrothermal vents near Ambitle Island in eastern Papua New Guinea discharge hot, slightly acidic, As-rich, chemically reduced fluid into cool, slightly alkaline, oxygenated seawater. Gradients in temperature, pH, and total As (As^T), among others, are established as the two aqueous phases mix. The hydrothermal fluid contained 900 μg/L As^T, almost exclusively present as the reduced As^III, while local seawater measured between 1.2 and 2.4 μg/L As, with approximately equal levels of As^III and As^V. Of particular interest in this study was As speciation and abundance in pore waters as a function of sediment depth and as a function of distance from the area of focused venting. With increasing distance, As^T concentration in the pore water decreased rapidly, but remained elevated up to 300 m from the area of focused venting when compared to a non-hydrothermal control site. As a function of depth (to 100 cm) As^T concentration in the pore water profiles was elevated and generally increased with depth. Surprisingly, aqueous As^V far exceeded aqueous As^III at almost all distances and depths investigated, while at the control site the As^III concentration exceeded that of As^V. In the Tutum Bay hydrothermal system, chemical disequilibria among As species provide potential metabolic energy for arsenite oxidizing microorganisms where hydrothermal fluid mixes with seawater near the vent orifice, and for arsenate reducing microorganisms with increasing distance and depth from the hydrothermal point source.     

A partial susceptibility approach to analysing the magnetic properties of environmental materials: a case study

An approach to expressing the magnetic properties of environmental materials in terms of the contributions of the magnetic susceptibilities of specific magnetic components is reported. The approach links the partial susceptibilities of discrete particles, domains or mineral fractions with the concentration-dependent parameters by means of multiple linear regression methods. The case study, using the Liverpool street dust data set, demonstrates that the technique is able to model the contributions of the main magnetic components satisfactorily. Several factors may have a significant impact on the regression results. These include the validity of the linear proportional relationships between partial susceptibilities and the relevant concentration-dependent parameters, the adequacy of the variable selection procedure and the regression model, and the suitability of certain magnetic parameters.     

Interpretation of shallow refraction seismic data by reflection/refraction tomography

A new algorithm for tomographic inversion of traveltimes of reflected and refracted seismic waves is developed. The inversion gives interface configurations and velocity distributions in layers. The important features of the algorithm are: (a) the inclusion of shot time delays in the list of unknown parameters; (b) the regularization is applied in such a way that the most probable model is characterized by the similarity of neighbouring interfaces. As the problem under consideration is non-linear, several iterations are necessary in order to obtain the final model. In the case of a very inexact initial model, a 'layer-by-layer' inversion strategy is recommended as a first inversion step. The inversion program is supplied with a user interface, thanks to which one can: (a) pick interactively and identify seismic traveltimes; (b) build and edit depth/velocity models; and (c) display calculated traveltime curves and compare them with picked traveltimes as well as with the original seismic sections. The efficiency of the inversion software developed is illustrated by a numerical example and a field example in which shallow seismic data are considered. Application to wide-aperture reflection/refraction profiling (WARRP) data is also possible.     

Weighted sum method for calculating ground force: an evaluation by using a portable vibrator system

Using a lightweight portable vibrator, we have evaluated the accuracy of the 'weighted sum' method for calculating ground force. Experiments in which the vibrator was suspended elastically have shown that, contrary to expectations based on standard theory, the amplitude of the weighted sum ground force was significantly above zero at high frequencies (> 500 Hz). Complementary investigations with load cells confirmed these results. If not accounted for, these deviations may introduce significant 'vibroseis-correlation noise' in processed records. Furthermore, we have demonstrated that ground force and base-plate velocity can be used to estimate the radiation impedance, which describes the interaction of (vibratory) sources with the ground. Using the mechanical characteristics of the system (i.e. maximum displacement, maximum velocity and maximum acceleration of the base-plate) and the radiation impedance, the behaviour of the portable vibrator on typical Dutch soil types was evaluated. We found that for the same sweep, more high-frequency energy could be generated on hard grounds (e.g. concrete) characterized by a higher radiation impedance than on softer grounds (e.g. clay or sand). Knowledge of this behaviour may provide important information for use in data interpretation.