Adaptation to the infectious disease impacts of climate change

Climate change has the potential to increase the challenge of preventing and controlling outbreaks of infectious diseases. An adaptation assessment is an important aspect of designing and implementing policies and measures to avoid, prepare for, and effectively respond to infectious diseases outbreaks. The main steps in conducting an adaptation assessment include: 1) evaluating the effectiveness of policies and measures that address the burden of climate-sensitive infectious diseases; 2) identifying options to manage the health risks of current and projected climate change; 3) evaluating and prioritizing the options; 4) identifying human and financial resources needs, and possible barriers, constraints, and limits to implementation; and 5) developing monitoring and evaluation programs to ensure continued effectiveness of policies and measures in a changing climate. Optimally, relevant stakeholders are optimally included throughout the adaptation assessment. Although the process of conducting an assessment is similar across nations and regions, the context and content will vary depending on local circumstances, socioeconomic conditions, legal and regulatory frameworks, and other factors. The European Centers for Disease Prevention and Control developed guidelines for conducting assessments, with sufficient consistency to facilitate learning lessons across assessments.     

Estimating environmentally relevant fixed nitrogen demand in the 21st century

Human activities affect the impact of the nitrogen cycle on both the environment and climate. The rate of anthropogenic nitrogen fixation from atmospheric N₂ may serve as an indicator to the magnitude of this impact, acknowledging that relationship to be effect-dependent and non-linear. Building on the set of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed for climate change research, we estimate anthropogenic industrial nitrogen fixation throughout the 21st century. Assigning characteristic key drivers to the four underlying scenarios we arrive at nitrogen fixation rates for agricultural use of 80 to 172 Tg N/yr by 2100, which is slightly less to almost twice as much compared with the fixation rate for the year 2000. We use the following key drivers of change, varying between scenarios: population growth, consumption of animal protein, agricultural efficiency improvement and additional biofuel production. Further anthropogenic nitrogen fixation for production of materials such as explosives or plastics and from combustion are projected to remain considerably smaller than that related to agriculture. While variation among the four scenarios is considerable, our interpretation of scenarios constrains the option space: several of the factors enhancing the anthropogenic impact on the nitrogen cycle may occur concurrently, but never all of them. A scenario that is specifically targeted towards limiting greenhouse gas emissions ends up as the potentially largest contributor to nitrogen fixation, as a result of large amounts of biofuels required and the fertilizer used to produce it. Other published data on nitrogen fixation towards 2100 indicate that our high estimates based on the RCP approach are rather conservative. Even the most optimistic scenario estimates that nitrogen fixation rate will remain substantially in excess of an estimate of sustainable boundaries by 2100.     

Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world

A new paradigm for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty has emerged in the literature. According to this paradigm, a planner should create a strategic vision of the future, commit to short-term actions, and establish a framework to guide future actions. A plan that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet changing circumstances. We propose a method for decisionmaking under uncertain global and regional changes called ‘Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways’. We base our approach on two complementary approaches for designing adaptive plans: ‘Adaptive Policymaking’ and ‘Adaptation Pathways’. Adaptive Policymaking is a theoretical approach describing a planning process with different types of actions (e.g. ‘mitigating actions’ and ‘hedging actions’) and signposts to monitor to see if adaptation is needed. In contrast, Adaptation Pathways provides an analytical approach for exploring and sequencing a set of possible actions based on alternative external developments over time. We illustrate the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach by producing an adaptive plan for long-term water management of the Rhine Delta in the Netherlands that takes into account the deep uncertainties about the future arising from social, political, technological, economic, and climate changes. The results suggest that it is worthwhile to further test and use the approach.     

Are higher order resonances really interesting?

It is shown that higher order resonances of equilibria of conservative Hamiltonian systems do not give rise to an exchange of energies between the different degrees of freedom for most of the initial values on a certain long time-scale. The topology of these resonances is analysed, using Bott-Morse theory.     

On the rings of Saturn

Results from numerical simulations of jetstreams are used to discuss certain aspects of the dynamics of the rings of Saturn. The probable velocity distribution inside the ring system is strongly non-Maxwellian. For the rings to form and remain a minimal degree of inelasticity is required. The energy consumption decreases rapidly with decreasing thickness of the rings. As we expect the degree of inelasticity to decrease for very small impact velocities, a minimal thickness should be reached, somewhat lower than the observed value.     

A coherent radiation mechanism for type IV dm radio bursts

An interpretation is presented of the decimetric type IV continuum with fine structure on March 6, 1972 and of the corresponding source region, in terms of ?erenkov plasma radiation and alternatively of synchrotron radiation, both in case of coherent and incoherent generation. If the magnetic field strength in the source region is a few gauss, in a stationary situation a loss cone instability develops which generates electron plasma waves coherently. The amount of energetic electrons required for consecutive induced scattering of the plasma waves at the thermal ions into electromagnetic waves is less than in case of synchrotron radiation. It is concluded that the former mechanism provides the explanation of type IV continua with fine structure such as intermediate drift bursts and sudden reductions of the continuum level.     

Improved values for the solar micro- and macro-turbulent filter functions

The contributions of any arbitrary photospheric velocity field to (macroturbulent) line displacement, and to (microturbulent) line broadening can be expressed by the macro- and micro-turbulent filters f _M (k) and f _t(_k), where _k is the wavenumber of the energy spectrum in which the line-of-sight component of the velocity field can be decomposed. As a correction to a previous computation of f _M and f _t we give in this Note improved values for the filter functions for weak lines in LTE. An example of the way to use the filter functions is given.     

The stable aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonist potency of United Kingdom Continental Shelf (UKCS) offshore produced water effluents

The in vitro aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) agonist potency of offshore produced water effluents, collected from the United Kingdom Continental Shelf, was determined using the dioxin responsive (DR)-chemically activated luciferase expression (CALUX) assay. Octadecylsilane (C18) solid phase extraction (SPE) extracts of produced water were exposed to DR-CALUX cells for 24 h in order to investigate the contribution in potency from compounds that are stable to metabolism by the CALUX cells during exposure. The stable AhR agonist potency determined over 24 h was highly variable and ranged from 1 to 430 ng TCDD TEQ_CALUX l⁻¹. These data reflect the highly variable composition of produced water discharges from different production fields. It is recommended that further work be performed to characterise the full range of stable dioxin like AhR agonists present in offshore produced water discharges using techniques such as bioassay-directed analysis.