Metamorphic gradients in burial metamorphosed vesicular lavas: Comparison of basalt and spilite in Cretaceous basic flows from central Chile

Partial spilitization of a 9 km thick pile of flood basalts with highly vesicular flow tops gave rise to patterns of secondary mineralogy at different scales: (a) a local pattern of mineralogical variation from the almost unaltered bottom towards the altered top of each flow, and (b) an overall pattern, comparing flow tops throughout the pile, with changes in mineralogical composition within a sequence of metamorphic zones and facies. The local patterns mimic the trend of the overall pattern, but are of opposite direction and telescoped. Thus, a gradual ordering and Andepletion of the secondary albite and increases in the Fe^*/Al ratio of epidote and pumpellyite upwards within individual flows are comparable in range to corresponding overall changes downwards throughout several kilometres. The mineralogical changes within the flows diminish in range towards the more altered deeper part of the pile.The local and overall patterns cannot be interpreted in terms of grade. They represent trends from metastable towards stable equilibrium, this latter only approached in the flow tops of the lower part of the pile. The patterns of secondary mineralogy were formed by an interplay of metamorphic gradients at different scales at any given time, and as burial proceeded. The overall pattern was caused by depth-controlled gradients: increasing P _fluid, temperature and temperature-induced increase of reaction rates, and decreasing fO₂ (downwards in the pile). The local patterns resulted from permeability-controlled gradients: increasing reaction rates, fO₂ and contrast in chemical activity between different domains, and decreasing P _fluid (upwards in each flow). The mineralogical observations reported in this paper fall into line if the overall temperature-induced increase of reaction rates and the local permeability-controlled rate factors played the leading role during burial metamorphism of the pile.     

Evaluation of current statistical approaches for predictive geomorphological mapping

Predictive models are increasingly used in geomorphology, but systematic evaluations of novel statistical techniques are still limited. The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of generalized linear models (GLM), generalized additive models (GAM), classification tree analysis (CTA), neural networks (ANN) and multiple adaptive regression splines (MARS) in predictive geomorphological modelling. Five different distribution models both for non-sorted and sorted patterned ground were constructed on the basis of four terrain parameters and four soil variables. To evaluate the models, the original data set of 9997 squares of 1 ha in size was randomly divided into model training (70%, n=6998) and model evaluation sets (30%, n=2999).In general, active sorted patterned ground is clearly defined in upper fell areas with high slope angle and till soils. Active non-sorted patterned ground is more common in valleys with higher soil moisture and fine-scale concave topography. The predictive performance of each model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Kappa value. The relatively high discrimination capacity of all models, AUC=0.85–0.88 and Kappa=0.49–0.56, implies that the model's predictions provide an acceptable index of sorted and non-sorted patterned ground occurrence. The best performance for model calibration data for both data sets was achieved by the CTA. However, when the predictive mapping ability was explored through the evaluation data set, the model accuracies of CTA decreased clearly compared to the other modelling techniques. For model evaluation data MARS performed marginally best.Our results show that the digital elevation model and soil data can be used to predict relatively robustly the activity of patterned ground in fine scale in a subarctic landscape. This indicates that predictive geomorphological modelling has the advantage of providing relevant and useful information on earth surface processes over extensive areas, such data being unavailable through more conventional survey methods.     

Apparent radiocarbon ages of recent marine shells from Norway,Spitsbergen, and Arctic Canada

The mean apparent radiocarbon ages of marine shells, colleted alive before the initiation of atomic bomb testing, and also before the main input of dead carbon derived from fossil fuels, are found to be 440 yr for the coast of Norway, 510 yr for Spitsbergen, and 750 yr for Ellesmere Island, Arctic Canada. The relationship between these apparent ages and the oceanic circulation pattern, is discussed. Also possible variations of the apparent ages back in time are discussed.     

Moving boulders in flash floods and estimating flow conditions using boulders in ancient deposits

Boulders moving in flash floods cause considerable damage and casualties. More and bigger boulders move in flash floods than predicted from published theory. The interpretation of flow conditions from the size of large particles within flash flood deposits has, until now, generally assumed that the velocity (or discharge) is unchanging in time (i.e. flow is steady), or changes instantaneously between periods of constant conditions. Standard practice is to apply theories developed for steady flow conditions to flash floods, which are however inherently very unsteady flows. This is likely to lead to overestimates of peak flow velocity (or discharge). Flash floods are characterised by extremely rapid variations in flow that generate significant transient forces in addition to the mean‐flow drag. These transient forces, generated by rapid velocity changes, are generally ignored in published theories, but they are briefly so large that they could initiate the motion of boulders. This paper develops a theory for the initiation of boulder movement due to the additional impulsive force generated by unsteady flow, and discusses the implications.     

A Time Monte Carlo method for addressing uncertainty in land-use change models

One of the main objectives of land-use change models is to explore future land-use patterns. Therefore, the issue of addressing uncertainty in land-use forecasting has received an increasing attention in recent years. Many current models consider uncertainty by including a randomness component in their structure. In this paper, we present a novel approach for tuning uncertainty over time, which we refer to as the Time Monte Carlo (TMC) method. The TMC uses a specific range of randomness to allocate new land uses. This range is associated with the transition probabilities from one land use to another. The range of randomness is increased over time so that the degree of uncertainty increases over time. We compare the TMC to the randomness components used in previous models, through a coupled logistic regression-cellular automata model applied for Wallonia (Belgium) as a case study. Our analysis reveals that the TMC produces results comparable with existing methods over the short-term validation period (2000–2010). Furthermore, the TMC can tune uncertainty on longer-term time horizons, which is an essential feature of our method to account for greater uncertainty in the distant future.     

Flood-type trend analysis for alpine catchments

ABSTRACT

In many places, magnitudes and frequencies of floods are expected to increase due to climate change. To understand these changes better, trend analyses of historical data are helpful. However, traditional trend analyses do not address issues related to shifts in the relative contributions of rainfall versus snowmelt floods, or in the frequency of a particular flood type. We present a novel approach for quantifying such trends in time series of floods using a fuzzy decision tree for event classification and applied it to maximal annual and seasonal floods in 27 alpine catchments for the period 1980–2014. Trends in flood types were studied with Sen’s slope and double mass curves. Our results reveal a decreasing number of rain-on-snow and an increasing number of short rainfall events in all catchments, with flash floods increasing in smaller catchments. Overall, the results demonstrate the value of incorporating a fuzzy flood-type classification into flood trend analyses.     

Tropical Marine Fungi*

Abstract. Marine Ascomycetes, Basidiomycetes and Deuteromycetes were collected in tropical and subtropical regions (Australia, Belize, Fiji, Hawaii, Marshall Islands, Mexico, New Zealand, Palau, Thailand), and the known range of distribution for these fungi was extended. Exclusively tropical are 27 taxa, 9 are probably restricted to the tropics also, and 11 are cosmopolitan. Distribution maps are given for 5 taxa. New species (4), varieties (3), and combinations (2) of Ascomycetes are proposed, and keys to the taxa of Halosarpheia and Lulworthia are presented. Most of the species are decomposers of mangrove parts or of detritus in sandy beaches. Nine new host plants were found. Marine Ascomycetes were discovered for the first time living in shells of foraminifera.     

Reconstruction of paleocoastlines for the northwestern South China Sea since the Last Glacial Maximum

The range of relative sea level rise in the northwestern South China Sea since the Last Glacial Maximum was over 100 m. As a result, lowland regions including the Northeast Vietnam coast, Beibu Gulf, and South China coast experienced an evolution from land to sea. Based on the principle of reconstructing paleogeography and using recent digital elevation model, relative sea level curves, and sediment accumulation data, this paper presents a series of paleogeographic scenarios back to 20 cal. ka BP for the northwestern South China Sea. The scenarios demonstrate the entire process of coastline changes for the area of interest. During the late glacial period from 20 to 15 cal. ka BP, coastline slowly retreated, causing a land loss of only 1×10⁴ km², and thus the land-sea distribution remained nearly unchanged. Later in 15–10 cal. ka BP coastline rapidly retreated and area of land loss was up to 24×10⁴km², causing lowlands around Northeast Vietnam and South China soon to be underwater. Coastline retreat continued quite rapidly during the early Holocene. From 10 to 6 cal. ka BP land area had decreased by 9×10⁴km², and during that process the Qiongzhou Strait completely opened up. Since the mid Holocene, main controls on coastline change are from vertical crustal movements and sedimentation. Transgression was surpassed by regression, resulting in a land accretion of about 10×10⁴km². Supported by Key Laboratory of Marginal Sea Geology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. MSGL0711), the Guangdong Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. 04001309) and Open Fund of the Key Laboratory of Marine Geology and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. MGE2007KG04)     

Deep Structure and Dynamics of Passive Continental Margin from Shelf to Ocean of the Northern South China Sea

To study the deep dynamic mechanism leading to the difference in rifting pattern and basin structure from shelf to oceanic basin in passive continental margin,we constructed long geological sections across the shelf,slope and oceanic basin using new seismic data.Integrated gravity-magnetic inversion and interpretation of these sections were made with the advanced dissection method.Results show that the basement composition changes from intermediate-acid intrusive rocks in the sheff to intermediate-basic rocks in the slope.The Moho surface shoals gradually from 31 km in the sheff to 22.5 km in the uplift and then 19 km in the slope and finally to 13 km in the oceanic basin.The crust thickness also decreases gradually from 30 km in the northern fault belt to 9 km in the oceanic basin.The crustal stretching factor increases from the shelf toward the oceanic basin,with the strongest extension under the sags and the oceanic basin.The intensity of mantle upwelling controlled the style of basin structures from sheff to oceanic basin.In the Zhu 1 depression on the shelf,the crust is nearly normal,the brittle and cold upper crust mainly controlled the fault development;so the combinative grabens with single symmetric graben are characteristic.In the slope,the crust thinned with a large stretching factor,affected by the mantle upwelling.The ductile deformation controlled the faults,so there developed an asymmetric complex graben in the Baiyun (白云) sag.