Statistical modelling of Europe-wide landslide susceptibility using limited landslide inventory data

In many regions, the absence of a landslide inventory hampers the production of susceptibility or hazard maps. Therefore, a method combining a procedure for sampling of landslide-affected and landslide-free grid cells from a limited landslide inventory and logistic regression modelling was tested for susceptibility mapping of slide- and flow-type landslides on a European scale. Landslide inventories were available for Norway, Campania (Italy), and the Barcelonnette Basin (France), and from each inventory, a random subsample was extracted. In addition, a landslide dataset was produced from the analysis of Google Earth images in combination with the extraction of landslide locations reported in scientific publications. Attention was paid to have a representative distribution of landslides over Europe. In total, the landslide-affected sample contained 1,340 landslides. Then a procedure to select landslide-free grid cells was designed taking account of the incompleteness of the landslide inventory and the high proportion of flat areas in Europe. Using stepwise logistic regression, a model including slope gradient, standard deviation of slope gradient, lithology, soil, and land cover type was calibrated. The classified susceptibility map produced from the model was then validated by visual comparison with national landslide inventory or susceptibility maps available from literature. A quantitative validation was only possible for Norway, Spain, and two regions in Italy. The first results are promising and suggest that, with regard to preparedness for and response to landslide disasters, the method can be used for urgently required landslide susceptibility mapping in regions where currently only sparse landslide inventory data are available.     

Flow in the unsaturated zone around a shallow subsurface radioactive waste trench: Interpretation of an infiltration–drainage test at the Chernobyl Pilot Site

This article describes an infiltration–drainage test carried out in the unsaturated zone (UZ) at the Chernobyl Pilot Site during October 2008; this is an international radioecology study site and is the subject of several papers in this special issue. The test has to be seen in the larger context of radionuclide transport from a waste trench. The conducted experiment consisted of infiltrating a layer of 9.5 cm of water in a circular area of 5.51 m² over 5 h. Its main objective was to create a larger range of water content values (and hence suction pressure values), not only at the top of the soil profile but also at greater depths, in this case up to 1.50 m. Observations of water content and suction pressure were carried out continuously at seven different depths during infiltration, drainage and during the return to natural conditions over a period of several months. This allowed deriving UZ parameter values with greater confidence than those derived from monitoring small natural water content changes over periods of years.     

Limitations in the use of compound-specific stable isotope analysis to understand the behaviour of a complex BTEX groundwater contamination near Brussels (Belgium)

The application of compound-specific stable isotope analysis (CSIA) was evaluated to characterise a complex groundwater contamination. For this purpose, δ¹³C and δ²H analysis of benzenes and alkylated derivatives were used to interpret both the impact of different sources on a contaminant plume and the presence of degradation processes. The different contaminant sources could be distinguished based on their combined δ¹³C–δ²H signature of the benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEX) dissolved in the groundwater. Despite this source differentiation, plume characterisation was not possible due to the complex mixing of the respective contaminant plumes. Furthermore, the original isotope signatures of the sources were not preserved across these plumes. To estimate the level of in situ biodegradation independently from concentration data, the Rayleigh equation was used. Although current literature identifies the application of CSIA as very promising in the frame of characterising organic groundwater pollution, this study has indicated that this approach can be limited with respect to successfully distinguish the different plumes and their relation to the known source zones.     

The dynamic strength of an ordinary chondrite

Abstract– Dynamic and quasistatic unconfined compression experiments were performed on samples of the L5 ordinary chondrite MacAlpine Hills (MAC) 88118. The dynamic compressive strength measurements are the first of its kind for a stony meteorite, and indicate that the material tested here exhibits significant increase in compressive strength with increasing strain rate. This increase in compressive strength is larger than the increases typically observed in terrestrial rock specimens compressed over a similar range of strain rates. The details of the failure process are investigated by recording images of the experiments in real time. Specifically, the crack growth speeds in the dynamic compression experiments are measured from ultrahigh‐speed images. These speeds are significantly lower than the speeds observed in terrestrial analogs that are typically used in numerical investigations of large‐scale impacts. The implications of these measurements of strength and failure process are explored in the contexts of atmospheric disruption of meteors and impact cratering/disruption of asteroids.     

Thermal Impact on Damaged Boom Clay and Opalinus Clay: Permeameter and Isostatic Tests with μCT Scanning

Within the framework of the TIMODAZ project, permeameter tests and isostatic tests were performed on Boom Clay and Opalinus Clay in order to assess the impact of temperature, pore water composition, and confining stress on the sealing of damaged samples of Boom Clay and Opalinus Clay. A microfocus X-ray computed tomography technique was used to visualize the evolution of the sealing process. Compared to the fast sealing of Boom Clay, the sealing of Opalinus Clay was much slower. The heating showed a significant, favorable impact on the sealing behavior of Opalinus Clay under permeameter test conditions, while the sealing behavior of Boom Clay appeared to be unaffected. Tests performed under isostatic conditions did not reveal a significant influence of a heating–cooling cycle on the sealing behavior of these clays. The reappearance of the fractures or holes in the samples after dismantling confirms earlier observations which showed that after sealing, the original mechanical properties are not recovered. In other words, a heating cycle does not seem to induce healing.     

Modeling the integrated roles of insurance and retrofit in managing natural disaster risk: a multi-stakeholder perspective

This paper introduces a new modeling framework to understand and improve regional natural disaster risk management in the USA, including the interactions among key stakeholders and between the two important risk management mechanisms of insurance and retrofit. The framework includes a stochastic programming optimization to represent insurer decisions, which interacts with a utility-based model of individual homeowners’ decisions to insure and/or retrofit. Reinsurer and government roles are represented as inputs, and the decision models are integrated with a detailed regional catastrophe loss estimation model. This modeling framework is applied to a full-scale, realistic case study for hurricane risk to residential buildings in Eastern North Carolina. Several alternative system configurations are considered that affect the incentives for adoption of alternative risk management methods. They include providing a government subsidy for insured homeowners to encourage retrofit, providing both a government subsidy and insurance rebate to reduce retrofit costs, and mandating insurance purchase with a cap on insurance premiums. For each configuration, outcomes are presented from the perspectives of all key stakeholders—primary insurer, homeowners (insured and uninsured, in high- and low-risk areas), reinsurers, and the government. Results suggest that it is possible to design policies in which all stakeholders can be better off simultaneously. Retrofit incentives for insured homeowners can be effective in linking and strengthening the benefits of retrofit and insurance. Mandatory insurance coupled with capped profit loading factors and possibly retrofit rebates from the insurer to the homeowner can also reduce overall system risk.     

Experimental Set-up for Determining Soil Water Retention Curves for Granular Soils During Drying

Abstract: Soil water retention curves (SWRCs) provide an important means of describing the response of unsaturated soils during drying / wetting processes in terms of variations of degree of saturation, water content or void ratio with suction. A key consideration in generating these curves is how to measure the suction. Frequently the filter paper technique is adopted, especially when high suctions are developed, e.g. with plastic clays. As each measurement takes at least a week with this technique, it can take months or years to generate a full SWRC in drying and wetting. Developments in laboratory tensiometers now allow matrix suctions up to about 1.5 MPa to be measured. With such a device it is possible to develop SWRCs for granular soils such as silts and clays in hours or days by continuous measurement. This paper describes an experimental set-up that was developed to measure changes in volume, water content and matrix suction during drying of three granular soils. Limitations of the apparatus and usefulness of the curves are discussed.     

Utilization of palm oil mill effluent for polyhydroxyalkanoate production and nutrient removal using statistical design

The optimization for poly-β-hydroxyalkanoate production was carried out with nutrient removal efficiency for total organic carbon (TOC), phosphate, and nitrate from palm oil mill effluent waste. The experiment was conducted in a fabricated fed-batch reactor and the data obtained was analyzed using central composite rotatable design and factorial design for response surface methodology as a systematic approach for designing the experiment statistically to obtain valid results with minimum effort, time, and resources. The analysis of numerical optimization with propagation of error showed that 66 % of poly-β-hydroxyalkanoate production can be obtained with nutrient removal of TOC and nitrate by 19 and 3 %, respectively. However, phosphate removal efficiency was not found to be much effective. More over, the chemical oxygen demand: nitrogen phosphate (509 g/g N), chemical oxygen demand: phosphate (200 g/g P), air flow rate (0.59 L/min), substrate feeding rate (20 mL/min), and cycle length (20 h) were the optimized variables for maximum poly-β-hydroxyalkanoate production and nutrient removal.     

Characterisation of rapid infiltration flows and vulnerability in a karst aquifer using a decomposed fluorescence signal of dissolved organic matter

The fluorescent properties of dissolved organic matter (DOM) have been used as natural tracers in various water systems. However, only few studies have focused on groundwater systems, specifically, on karst systems. The aim of this study was to develop the use of the DOM fluorescence signal as a natural tracer, considering the multiple compartments of a karst system. This method was applied to the Lez hydrosystem, which supplies the city of Montpellier with drinking water. The hydrodynamics and hydrochemistry of the spring were monitored beginning March 2006. The DOM fluorescence was measured by the excitation–emission matrix spectroscopy technique. The analysis of the total fluorescence signal confirms the efficiency of this tool to trace rapid infiltration flows. Moreover, the decomposition of the signal into different fluorophores complements the information provided by the total signal. Indeed, the fluorescence emitted by the humic compounds seems to be the ideal tool for identifying rapid infiltration flows. Nevertheless, the fluorescence of protein-like compounds is better correlated with the inflow of faecal bacteria at the outlet. This decomposition of the fluorescence signal is an interesting way to provide information on both the rapid infiltration flow as well as the vulnerability of the karst aquifers.