Fractional order intensity measures for probabilistic seismic demand modeling applied to highway bridges

Probabilistic seismic analysis of structures involves the construction of seismic demand models, often stated as probabilistic models of structural response conditioned on a seismic intensity measure. The uncertainty introduced by the model is often a result of the chosen intensity measure. This paper introduces the concept of using fractional order intensity measures (IMs) in probabilistic seismic demand analysis and uses a single frame integral concrete box‐girder bridge class and a seismically designed multispan continuous steel girder bridge class as case studies. The fractional order IMs considered include peak ground response and spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1.0 s considering a single degree of freedom system with fractional damping, , as well as a linear single degree of freedom system with fractional response, . The study reveals the advantage of fractional order IMs relative to conventional IMs such as peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, or spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1.0 s. Metrics such as efficiency, sufficiency, practicality, and proficiency are measured to assess the optimal nature of fractional order IMs. The results indicate that the proposed fractional order IMs produce significant improvements in efficiency and proficiency, whereas maintaining practicality and sufficiency, and thus providing superior demand models that can be used in probabilistic seismic demand analysis. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High-frequency rock temperature data from hyper-arid desert environments in the Atacama and the Antarctic Dry Valleys and implications for rock weathering

In desert environments with low water and salt contents, rapid thermal variations may be an important source of rock weathering. We have obtained temperature measurements of the surface of rocks in hyper-arid hot and cold desert environments at a rate of 1/s over several days. The values of temperature change over 1-second intervals were similar in hot and cold deserts despite a 30 °C difference in absolute rock surface temperature. The average percentage of the time dT/dt > 2 °C/min was ~ 8 ± 3%, > 4 °C/min was 1 ± 0.9%, and > 8 °C/min was 0.02 ± 0.03%. The maximum change over a 1-second interval was ~ 10 °C/min. When sampled to simulate data taken over intervals longer than 1 s, we found a reduction in time spent above the 2 °C/min temperature gradient threshold. For 1-minute samples, the time spent above any given threshold was about two orders of magnitude lower than the corresponding value for 1-second sampling. We suggest that a rough measure of efficacy of weathering as a function of frequency is the product of the percentage of time spent above a given threshold value multiplied by the damping depth for the corresponding frequency. This product has a broad maximum for periods between 3 and 10 s.     

The morphological response of foredunes at a breached barrier system to winter 2013/2014 storms on the southwest coast of Ireland

The level of storminess in Ireland during the winter of 2013/2014 was exceptional, the effects of which cost the Irish state in excess of €260 million in infrastructure repair and insurance claims. In Ireland, a lack of coastal process data from monitoring programmes means that the response of protective barrier coasts to such events remains largely un‐investigated. This study addresses this issue through an examination of the geomorphic impacts of recent storms, including those that occurred during the winter 2013/2014, on a breached barrier on the southwest coast of Ireland. Data from a two‐year terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) monitoring campaign shows that the winter 2013/2014 events caused a major (>50 m) dune recession at Rossbehy, County Kerry. Results from a simple linear regression analysis indicate storm duration plays an important role in the removal of foredunes at the study site. Given the fact that the frequency of intense storms in the vicinity of Ireland is forecast to increase within the next century, a scientific understanding of barrier response to such events is critical to inform sound management practices. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bathymetric control of surf zone retention on a rip-channelled beach

Simulations from a numerical model address the impact of nearshore morphology on surf zone retention on, open coast, rip-channelled beaches exposed to shore-normal waves. In the model, rip channels are regularly spaced alongshore with a given spacing λ. For a given reference case bathymetry (λ= 200 m), rip current circulations retain floating material at a hourly rate R of about 80 % which is in line with most existing field and laboratory studies in similar settings. The influence of a surf zone rip-channel morphology on surf zone retention is evaluated by a number of morphologic parameters. Results show that rip spacing is important. The ratio of the surf zone width X _s to rip spacing λ controls surf zone retention with R rapidly increasing with increasing X _s /λ up to a threshold of about 1 above which R levels off to become asymptotic to 100 %. The impact of the presence of a rip head bar is profound but nonlinear. The onset of wave breaking across the rip head bar drives a weak seaward located circulation providing major pathways for surface water exiting the surf zone compartment. Additional simulations suggest that alongshore variations in the offshore bathymetry are important. Patterns in the wave field enforced by wave refraction and potentially wave breaking across offshore bathymetric anomalies can provide a conduit for transporting floating material out of the surf zone and into the inner shelf region. This has major implications for surf zone flushing by inner-bar rips on multiple-barred beaches and on beaches facing bathymetric anomalies on the inner shelf.     

Detecting changing river temperatures in England and Wales

Changes in water temperature can have important consequences for aquatic ecosystems, with some species being sensitive even to small shifts in temperature during some or all of their life cycle. While many studies report increasing regional and global air temperatures, evidence of changes in river water temperature has, thus far, been site specific and often from sites heavily influenced by human activities that themselves could lead to warming. Here we present a tiered assessment of changing river water temperature covering England and Wales with data from 2773 locations. We use novel statistical approaches to detect trends in irregularly sampled spot measurements taken between 1990 and 2006. During this 17‐year period, on average, mean water temperature increased by 0.03 °C per year (±0.002 °C), and positive changes in water temperature were observed at 2385 (86%) sites. Examination of catchments where there has been limited human influence on hydrological response shows that changes in river flow have had little influence on these water temperature trends. In the absence of other systematic influences on water temperature, it is inferred that anthropogenically driven climate change is driving some of this trend in water temperature. © 2014 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Hubbert’s Legacy: A Review of Curve-Fitting Methods to Estimate Ultimately Recoverable Resources

A growing number of commentators are forecasting a near-term peak and subsequent terminal decline in the global production of conventional oil as a result of the physical depletion of the resource. These forecasts frequently rely on the estimates of the ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of different regions, obtained through the use of curve-fitting to historical trends in discovery or production. Curve-fitting was originally pioneered by M. King Hubbert in the context of an earlier debate about the future of the US oil production. However, despite their widespread use, curve-fitting techniques remain the subject of considerable controversy. This article classifies and explains these techniques and identifies both their relative suitability in different circumstances and the level of confidence that may be placed in their results. This article discusses the interpretation and importance of the URR estimates, indicates the relationship between curve fitting and other methods of estimating the URR and classifies the techniques into three groups. It then investigates each group in turn, indicating their historical origins, contemporary application and major strengths and weaknesses. The article then uses illustrative data from a number of oil-producing regions to assess whether these techniques produce consistent results as well as highlight some of the statistical issues raised and suggesting how they may be addressed. The article concludes that the applicability of curve-fitting techniques is more limited than adherents claim and that the confidence bounds on the results are wider than usually assumed.     

Short contribution: Nile flow failure at the end of the Old Kingdom,Egypt: Strontium isotopic and petrologic evidence

Strontium isotopic and petrologic information, obtained from sediment cores collected in the Nile delta of Egypt, indicate that paleoclimatic and Nile baseflow conditions changed considerably from about 4200 to 4000 cal yr B.P. in the Nile basin. Our study records a higher proportion of White Nile sediment transported during the annual floods at ca. 6100 cal yr B.P. than towards 4200 cal yr B.P., at which time suspended sediment from the Blue Nile formed a significantly larger fraction of the total load. This resulted from a decrease in vegetative cover and an increase in erosion rate accompanying the marked decline in rainfall. These new geoscience data indicate major changes in annual flooding and baseflow of the river Nile, marked short‐term paleoclimatic‐related events that may in part have led to the collapse of the Old Kingdom. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Peck公式在我国隧道施工地面变形预测中的适用性分析

在目前众多的预测地铁隧道开挖引起的地表位移的经验方法中，Peck于1969年提出的高斯方程最简便，也是目前应用最为广泛的方法。由于这一公式是基于有限地区的实测资料提出的，因此，在某个地区应用前首先应该进行基于当地实测资料的验证工作。国内地铁建设工作起步相对较晚，在土中开挖的浅埋隧道工程引起的地层变形实测资料比较缺乏，因此，目前对Peck公式在国内各地区的适用性还没有定论。近年来，随着地铁建设热潮的兴起，各地逐渐积累了一些实测资料，但仍比较零散，也没有形成比较统一的结论。通过对搜集到的国内8个地区30多组观测数据的分析，评价这一方法在不同地区的适用性，并对相关计算参数提出初步建议值。     

Quasiperiodic Jovian Radio bursts: observations from the Ulysses Radio and Plasma Wave Experiment

The Ulysses flyby of Jupiter has permitted the detection of a variety of quasiperiodic magnetospheric phenomena. In this paper, Unified Radio and Plasma Wave Experiment (URAP) observations of quasiperiodic radio bursts are presented. There appear to be two preferred periods of short-term variability in the Jovian magnetosphere, as indicated by two classes of bursts, one with 40 min periodicity, the other with 15 min periodicity. The URAP radio direction determination capability provides clear evidence that the 40 min bursts originate near the southern Jovian magnetic pole, whereas the source location of the 15 min bursts remains uncertain. These bursts may be the signatures of quasiperiodic electron acceleration in the Jovian magnetosphere; however, only the 40 min bursts occur in association with observed electron bursts of similar periodicity. Both classes of bursts show some evidence of solar wind control. In particular, the onset of enhanced 40 min burst activity is well correlated with the arrival of high-velocity solar wind streams at Jupiter, thereby providing a remote monitor of solar wind conditions at Jupiter.