ASSESSING THE SUITABILITY OF THE EPIC CROP MODEL FOR USE IN THE STUDY OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN WEST AFRICA

The EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) crop model, developed by scientists of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), has been successfully applied to the study of erosion, water pollution, crop growth and production in the US but is yet to be introduced for serious research purposes in other countries or regions. This paper reports on the applicability of the EPIC 8120 crop model for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate variability and climate change on crop productivity in sub‐Saharan West Africa, using Nigeria as the case study. Among the crops whose productivity has been successfully simulated with this model are five of West Africa's staple food crops: maize, millet, sorghum (guinea corn), rice and cassava. Thus, using the model, the sensitivities of maize, sorghum and millet to seasonal rainfall were demonstrated with coefficients of correlation significant at over 98 per cent confidence limits. The validation tests were based on a comparison of the observed and the model‐generated yields of rice and maize. The main problems of validation relate to the multiplicity of crop varieties with contrasting performances under similar field conditions. There are also the difficulties in representing micro‐environments in the model. Thus, some gaps appear between the observed and the simulated yields, arising from data or model deficiencies, or both. Based on the results of the sensitivity and validation tests, the EPIC crop model could be satisfactorily employed in assessing the impacts of and adaptations to climate variability and climate change. Its use for the estimation of production and the assessment of vulnerabilities need to be pursued with further field surveys and field experimentation.     

Land tenure type as an underrated legal constraint on the conservation management of coastal dunes: examples from Ireland

Legal factors play an underrated but significant role as constraints on conservation management. In this paper, based on observations in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, mode of land tenure is assessed to determine its influence on the conservation management of coastal dunes. The tenure types considered are: private ownership, corporate private ownership, tenancy, secured tenancy, leasing, common (joint) ownership, uncertain ownership, public ownership and its subset military ownership. It is suggested that multiple private ownership is least likely to favour effective conservation management. Public ownership by a statutory conservation authority and corporate private ownership by a conservation-orientated NGO are regarded as the optimum tenure types for conservation management of coastal dunes.     

Asia–Europe–United States: the geoeconomics of uncertainty

This paper examines a key aspect of how the global geometries of finance and trade articulate the euro–dollar relationship. Here, European integration extends into a global financial and trading system replete with contradictions. The paper examines these, drawing upon a literature from international political economy, foregrounding the spatialities that they signal.     

Denitrification capacity in a subterranean estuary below a Rhode Island fringing salt marsh

Coastal waters are severely threatened by nitrogen (N) loading from direct groundwater discharge. The subterranean estuary, the mixing zone of fresh groundwater and sea water in a coastal aquifer, has a high potential to remove substantial N. A network of piezometers was used to characterize the denitrification capacity and groundwater flow paths in the subterranean estuary below a Rhode Island fringing salt marsh.¹⁵N-enriched nitrate was injected into the subterranean estuary (in situ push-pull method) to evaluate the denitrification capacity of the saturated zone at multiple depths (125–300 cm) below different zones (upland-marsh transition zone, high marsh, and low marsh). From the upland to low marsh, the water table became shallower, groundwater dissolved oxygen decreased, and groundwater pH, soil organic carbon, and total root biomass increased. As groundwater approached the high and low marsh, the hydraulic gradient increased and deep groundwater upwelled. In the warm season (groundwater temperature >12 °C), elevated groundwater denitrification capacity within each zone was observed. The warm season low marsh groundwater denitrification capacity was significantly higher than all other zones and depths. In the cool season (groundwater temperature <10.5 °C), elevated groundwater denitrification capacity was only found in the low marsh. Additions of dissolved organic carbon did not alter groundwater denitrification capacity suggesting that an alternative electron donor, possibly transported by tidal inundation from the root zone, may be limiting. Combining flow paths with denitrification capacity and saturated porewater residence time, we estimated that as much as 29–60 mg N could be removed from 11 of water flowing through the subterranean estuary below the low marsh, arguing for the significance of subterranean estuaries in annual watershed scale N budgets.     

Using stable isotope analyses to assess carbon dynamics in a shallow subtropical estuary

The sources of carbon, which fuel water column respiration, remain unresolved for most estuaries; our objective was to examine carbon dynamics in a shallow subtropical estuary. We sampled the Sabine-Neches estuary, Texas, during low (November 1999) and high (May 2000) freshwater inflow and measured stable carbon isotope ratios of the dissolved inorganic and orgnaic carbon (δ¹³C-DIC, δ¹³C-DOC), as well as quantifying accessory parameters (salinity, nutrients, total suspended solids, and photosynthetic pigments). Pigment analysis indicated that diatoms were the predominant phytoplankton. Data from the May 2000 sampling event exhibited conservative mixing, indicating that the system was acting as a conduit between the watershed and the Gulf of Mexico. During November, mixing was generally nonconservative indicating extensive recycling of allochthonous and autochthonous carbon sources. Our data imply that both carbon sources had similar isotope, ratios that made it impossible to unambiguously determine the dominant source supporting respiration. The nonconservative DIC concentration data indicating an autotrophic sink as well as the strong relationship between δ¹³C-DOC and chlorophylla, suggest that in situ production was an important component of the DOC pool. We hypothesize that uncharacteristically calm wind conditions during sampling may have promoted phytoplankton settling, removing autotrophs, from the water column, but leaving behind a dissolved biogeochemical signature. Interpretation of carbon dynamics may be confounded by spatial and temporal decoupling of producers and consumers from biogeochemical indicators.     

Continental rift systems and anorogenic magmatism

Precambrian Laurentia and Mesozoic Gondwana both rifted along geometric patterns that closely approximate truncated-icosahedral tessellations of the lithosphere. These large-scale, quasi-hexagonal rift patterns manifest a least-work configuration. For both Laurentia and Gondwana, continental rifting coincided with drift stagnation, and may have been driven by lithospheric extension above an insulated and thermally expanded mantle. Anorogenic magmatism, including flood basalts, dike swarms, anorthosite massifs and granite-rhyolite provinces, originated along the Laurentian and Gondwanan rift tessellations. Long-lived volcanic regions of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, sometimes called hotspots, originated near triple junctions of the Gondwanan tessellation as the supercontinent broke apart. We suggest that some anorogenic magmatism results from decompression melting of asthenosphere beneath opening fractures, rather than from random impingement of hypothetical deep-mantle plumes.     

Mercury in Eastern Kentucky coals: Geologic aspects and possible reduction strategies

Mercury emissions from US coal-fired power plants will be regulated by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) before the end of the decade. Because of this, the control of Hg in coal is important. Control is fundamentally based on the knowledge of the amounts of Hg in mined, beneficiated, and as-fired coal. Eastern Kentucky coals, on a reserve district level, have Hg contents similar to the USA average for coal at mines. Individual coals show greater variation at the bench scale, with Hg enrichment common in the top bench, often associated with enhanced levels of pyritic sulfur. Some of the variation between parts of eastern Kentucky is also based on the position relative to major faults. The Pine Mountain thrust fault appears to be responsible for elemental enrichment, including Hg, in coals on the footwall side of the thrust.Eastern Kentucky coals shipped to power plants in 1999, the year the USEPA requested coal quality information on coal deliveries, indicate that coals shipped from the region have 0.09 ppm Hg, compared to 0.10 ppm for all delivered coals in the USA. On an equal energy basis, and given equal concentrations of Hg, the high volatile bituminous coals from eastern Kentucky would emit less Hg than lower rank coals from other USA regions.     

Representing and communicating deep uncertainty in climate-change assessments

IPCC reports provide a synthesis of the state of the science in order to inform the international policy process. This task is made difficult by the presence of deep uncertainty in the climate problem that results from long time scales and complexity. This paper focuses on how deep uncertainty can be effectively communicated. We argue that existing schemes do an inadequate job of communicating deep uncertainty and propose a simple approach that distinguishes between various levels of subjective understanding in a systematic manner. We illustrate our approach with two examples. To cite this article: M. Kandlikar et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).