Earth-mass planets in exoplanetary systems

No exoplanets with masses anywhere near as small as that of the Earth have yet been found. Barrie Jones considers whether they could, nevertheless, exist.     

Characterization of Earthquake Strong Ground Motion

— Some underwater landslides are triggered by strong ground motions caused by earthquakes. This paper reviews current concepts and trends in the characterization of strong ground motion. Improved empirical ground motion models have been derived from a strong motion data set that has grown markedly over the past decade. However, these empirical models have a large degree of uncertainty because the magnitude-distance-soil category parameterization of these models often oversimplifies reality. This reflects the fact that other conditions that are known to have an important influence on strong ground motions, such as near-fault rupture directivity effects, crustal waveguide effects, and basin response effects, are not treated as parameters of these simple models. Numerical ground motion models based on seismological theory that include these additional effects have been developed and extensively validated against recorded ground motions, and used to estimate the ground motions of past earthquakes and predict the ground motions of future scenario earthquakes.     

Calcrete profile development in Quaternary alluvial sequences,southeast Spain: implications for using calcretes as a basis for landform chronologies

A detailed study of the morphology and micro‐morphology of Quaternary alluvial calcrete profiles from the Sorbas Basin shows that calcretes may be morphologically simple or complex. The ‘simple’ profiles reflect pedogenesis occurring after alluvial terrace formation and consist of a single pedogenic horizon near the land surface. The ‘complex’ profiles reflect the occurrence of multiple calcrete events during terrace sediment aggradation and further periods of pedogenesis after terrace formation. These ‘complex’ calcrete profiles are consequently described as composite profiles. The exact morphology of the composite profiles depends upon: (1) the number of calcrete‐forming events occurring during terrace sediment aggradation; (2) the amount of sediment accretion that occurs between each period of calcrete formation; and (3) the degree of pedogenesis after terrace formation. Simple calcrete profiles are most useful in establishing landform chronologies because they represent a single phase of pedogenesis after terrace formation. Composite profiles are more problematic. Pedogenic calcretes that form within them may inherit carbonate from calcrete horizons occurring lower down in the terrace sediments. In addition erosion may lead to the exhumation of older calcretes within the terrace sediment. Calcrete ‘inheritance’ may make pedogenic horizons appear more mature than they actually are and produce horizons containing carbonate embracing a range of ages. Calcrete exhumation exposes calcrete horizons whose morphology and radiometric ages are wholly unrelated to terrace surface age. Composite profiles are, therefore, only suitable for chronological studies if the pedogenic horizon capping the terrace sequence can be clearly distinguished from earlier calcrete‐forming events. Thus, a detailed morphological/micro‐morphological study is required before any chronological study is undertaken. This is the only way to establish whether particular calcrete profiles are suitable for dating purposes. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Testing a model for predicting the timing and location of shallow landslide initiation in soil‐mantled landscapes

The growing availability of digital topographic data and the increased reliability of precipitation forecasts invite modelling efforts to predict the timing and location of shallow landslides in hilly and mountainous areas in order to reduce risk to an ever‐expanding human population. Here, we exploit a rare data set to develop and test such a model. In a 1·7 km² catchment a near‐annual aerial photographic coverage records just three single storm events over a 45 year period that produced multiple landslides. Such data enable us to test model performance by running the entire rainfall time series and determine whether just those three storms are correctly detected. To do this, we link a dynamic and spatially distributed shallow subsurface runoff model (similar to TOPMODEL) to an in?nite slope model to predict the spatial distribution of shallow landsliding. The spatial distribution of soil depth, a strong control on local landsliding, is predicted from a process‐based model. Because of its common availability, daily rainfall data were used to drive the model. Topographic data were derived from digitized 1 : 24 000 US Geological Survey contour maps. Analysis of the landslides shows that 97 occurred in 1955, 37 in 1982 and ?ve in 1998, although the heaviest rainfall was in 1982. Furthermore, intensity–duration analysis of available daily and hourly rainfall from the closest raingauges does not discriminate those three storms from others that did not generate failures. We explore the question of whether a mechanistic modelling approach is better able to identify landslide‐producing storms. Landslide and soil production parameters were ?xed from studies elsewhere. Four hydrologic parameters characterizing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil and underlying bedrock and its decline with depth were ?rst calibrated on the 1955 landslide record. Success was characterized as the most number of actual landslides predicted with the least amount of total area predicted to be unstable. Because landslide area was consistently overpredicted, a threshold catchment area of predicted slope instability was used to de?ne whether a rainstorm was a signi?cant landslide producer. Many combinations of the four hydrological parameters performed equally well for the 1955 event, but only one combination successfully identi?ed the 1982 storm as the only landslide‐producing storm during the period 1980–86. Application of this parameter combination to the entire 45 year record successfully identi?ed the three events, but also predicted that two other landslide‐producing events should have occurred. This performance is signi?cantly better than the empirical intensity–duration threshold approach, but requires considerable calibration effort. Overprediction of instability, both for storms that produced landslides and for non‐producing storms, appears to arise from at least four causes: (1) coarse rainfall data time scale and inability to document short rainfall bursts and predict pressure wave response; (2) absence of local rainfall data; (3) legacy effect of previous landslides; and (4) inaccurate topographic and soil property data. Greater resolution of spatial and rainfall data, as well as topographic data, coupled with systematic documentation of landslides to create time series to test models, should lead to signi?cant improvements in shallow landslides forecasting. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

System identification of the Vincent Thomas suspension bridge using earthquake records

The Vincent Thomas Bridge in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, is a critical artery for commercial traffic flow in and out of the Los Angeles Harbor, and is at risk in the seismically active Southern California region, particularly because it straddles the Palos Verdes fault zone. A combination of linear and non‐linear system identification techniques is employed to obtain a complete reduced‐order, multi‐input–multi‐output (MIMO) dynamic model of the Vincent Thomas Bridge based on the dynamic response of the structure to the 1987 Whittier and 1994 Northridge earthquakes. Starting with the available acceleration measurements (which consists of 15 accelerometers on the bridge structure and 10 accelerometers at various locations on its base), an efficient least‐squares‐based time‐domain identification procedure is applied to the data set to develop a reduced‐order, equivalent linear, multi‐degree‐of‐freedom model. Although not the main focus of this study, the linear system identification method is also combined with a non‐parametric identification technique, to generate a reduced‐order non‐linear mathematical model suitable for use in subsequent studies to predict, with good fidelity, the total response of the bridge under arbitrary dynamic environments. Results of this study yield measurements of the equivalent linear modal properties (frequencies, mode shapes and non‐proportional damping) as well as quantitative measures of the extent and nature of non‐linear interaction forces arising from strong ground shaking. It is shown that, for the particular subset of observations used in the identification procedure, the apparent non‐linearities in the system restoring forces are quite significant, and they contribute substantially to the improved fidelity of the model. Also shown is the potential of the identification technique under discussion to detect slight changes in the structure's influence coefficients, which may be indicators of damage and degradation in the structure being monitored. Difficulties associated with accurately estimating damping for lightly damped long‐span structures from their earthquake response are discussed. The technical issues raised in this paper indicate the need for added spatial resolution in sensor instrumentation to obtain identified mathematical models of structural systems with the broadest range of validity. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Further Study on the Mechanism of Airdecking

Airdecking is used in mining for two quite different applications. One is to enhance the fragmentation by amplifying the induced fracturing and the second is for pre-split blasting in which the borehole fracturing is reduced. This paper deals with the first of these effects. A forth coming paper will describe pre-splitting by airdecking. The use of air decks to enhance rock fragmentation and so to reduce explosive costs has been the practice for quite long time. Although a number of studies has been conducted to verify the advantages of blasting with air decks and to investigate the mechanisms involved, the proposed mechanisms still cannot explain clearly the phenomena observed in practice and the design approach adopted for this kind of blasting is still primary based on rules-of-thumb. In this paper, the theory of shock tubes is adopted to (a) investigate the processes of the expanding detonation products, (b) study the interactions between the explosion products and the stemming or bottom of blasthole, and (c) to decide the distribution of the changing pressure of explosion products along blasthole. Numerical simulation and theoretical analyses are then performed to study the physical process of blasting with air decks. Finally, a reasonable value for the airdecking ratio is decided theoretically. It is shown that the pressure-unloading process caused by the propagation of the rarefaction wave and the reflected rarefaction waves in the detonation products plays an important role in the enhanced fragmentation of rock when blasting with air decks. The unloading process can induce tensile stresses of rather high magnitude in the rock mass surrounding blasthole. This favors fracturing of the rock. The reflected shock wave with a magnitude of gas pressure higher than that of the average detonation pressure in a fully charged blasthole acts as the main energy source to break the rock in the air deck and stemming portions. The second and succeeding strain waves induced by the unloading or reloading of the pressurewithin the blasthole also contribute to form the initial fracture network in the rock around the blasthole. It is also revealed that there exists a reasonable range of values for the airdecking ratio. For ANFO, this value varies from 0.13-0.40.     

Groundwater residence times and flow paths in fractured rock determined using environmental tracers in the Mission Tunnel; Santa Barbara County,California, USA

Multiple geochemical tracers [ion chemistry, stable isotopes of water, chlorofluorocarbons (CFC), tritium] and a 25-year-long record of discharge were used to understand residence times and flow paths of groundwater seeps in the fractured rock aquifer surrounding the Mission Tunnel, Santa Barbara, California. Tritium data from individual seeps indicate that seep waters are a mixture of >45-year-old (recharged prior to the nuclear bomb tests) and young groundwater. CFC data support this interpretation, however, a two-end member mixing model cannot completely explain the age tracer data. Microbial degradation and partial re-equilibration complicate the CFC signal. Spectral analysis of precipitation and groundwater seepage records shows that seepage lags precipitation by 3 months. This delay is related to the advancement of the wetting front and increasing the number of active flow paths. Additionally, the amount of seepage produced by precipitation is less during extended periods of drought than during normal or wet periods, suggesting antecedent conditions strongly affect flow through this fractured rock aquifer.