Representing and communicating deep uncertainty in climate-change assessments

IPCC reports provide a synthesis of the state of the science in order to inform the international policy process. This task is made difficult by the presence of deep uncertainty in the climate problem that results from long time scales and complexity. This paper focuses on how deep uncertainty can be effectively communicated. We argue that existing schemes do an inadequate job of communicating deep uncertainty and propose a simple approach that distinguishes between various levels of subjective understanding in a systematic manner. We illustrate our approach with two examples. To cite this article: M. Kandlikar et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Copper(II) humate mobility in kaolinite soil

An investigation of the influence of humate on the mobility of copper(II) ions in a kaolinite soil using leaching tests and electrokinetic experiments is reported. The data are interpreted in terms of humate–copper–clay interactions and humate electrical charge. Humate is mostly immobile below pH8 but is more mobile in alkaline conditions (sorption to kaolinite reduces its mobility in neutral conditions). Copper humate complexes are mobile in both acidic and alkaline conditions, but not in neutral conditions where they are sorbed. The dissolved copper humate complexes that form in acidic conditions are positively charged. The net effect of humate is to increase cupric ion mobility in kaolinite soil, especially in alkaline conditions.     

金塔绿洲风场与温湿场特征的数值模拟

使用美国NCAR新版MM5V3.6非静力平衡模式,采用三重嵌套的降尺度方法,模拟研究了甘肃河西走廊金塔绿洲风场与温湿场特征。结果表明:由于绿洲的存在,绿洲沙漠系统产生的次级环流对局地环流有一定影响;平流作用将沙漠中的干热空气送向绿洲,绿洲近地层会出现逆温,感热向地表输送;沙漠上由于临近绿洲的水汽平流作用,上层大气湿度比低层更大,这就是逆湿现象。     

Investigation of submicron volcanic aerosol-particles by photoelectron emission

Volcanic aerosol emissions have been studied for the first time by in situ photoelectric charging. Explorative studies on Mt Etna reveal large concentrations of particles below 1000 nm with the spectrum peaking in the size range of 100–1000 nm diameter. Although a large fraction of the particles is already charged upon emission, the net electrical charge carried by the aerosol turned out to be close to zero.Particles with high photoelectric yield vary greatly in their relative abundance and seem to occur mainly at active points of the volcano.     

珠江流域1961-2007年气候变化及2011-2060年预估分析

 根据珠江流域1961-2007年气温、降水量观测资料和ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式2011-2060年预估结果,分析了流域过去47 a的气温和降水量变化,并预估未来50 a变化趋势。结果表明,在全球变暖的背景下,过去47 a温度呈上升趋势,约升高1.8℃。冬季增温最明显,夏季最弱。未来50 a流域温度仍呈上升趋势,A1B情景下升幅约1.9℃,并且年际变化增强。A2和B1两种排放情景下秋季升温最显著,冬季最弱,A1B排放情景与此相反。过去47 a秋季降水量呈减少趋势;春、夏、冬季和年降水量均呈增加趋势。未来50 a降水总体呈增加趋势,A1B排放情景降水增加最多,约为230 mm。A2、A1B和B1情景下降水季节分配未发生显著变化。年降水和冬季降水的年际变率增强,秋季减弱。     

The born-again (very late thermal pulse) scenario revisited: the mass of the remnants and implications for V4334 Sgr

We present 1D numerical simulations of the very late thermal pulse (VLTP) scenario for a wide range of remnant masses. We show that by taking into account the different possible remnant masses, the observed evolution of V4334 Sgr (a.k.a. Sakurai's object) can be reproduced within the standard 1D mixing length theory (MLT) stellar evolutionary models without the inclusion of any ad hoc reduced mixing efficiency. Our simulations hint at a consistent picture with present observations of V4334 Sgr. From energetics, and within the standard MLT approach, we show that low-mass remnants  ( M ≲ 0.6 M_⊙)  are expected to behave markedly differently from higher mass remnants  ( M ≳ 0.6 M_⊙)  in the sense that the latter remnants are not expected to expand significantly as a result of the violent H-burning that takes place during the VLTP. We also assess the discrepancy in the born-again times obtained by different authors by comparing the energy that can be liberated by H-burning during the VLTP event.     

A new semi-quantitative Surface-Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy (SERS) method for detection of maleimide (2,5-pyrroledione) with potential application to astrobiology

Nitrogen-containing heterocyclic compounds are fundamental biochemical components of all life on Earth and, presumably, life elsewhere in our solar system. Dete...