Field Investigation of a New Recharge Approach for ASR Projects in Near‐Surface Aquifers

Aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) is the artificial recharge and temporary storage of water in an aquifer when water is abundant, and recovery of all or a portion of that water when it is needed. One key limiting factor that still hinders the effectiveness of ASR is the high costs of constructing, maintaining, and operating the artificial recharge systems. Here we investigate a new recharge method for ASR in near‐surface unconsolidated aquifers that uses small‐diameter, low‐cost wells installed with direct‐push (DP) technology. The effectiveness of a DP well for ASR recharge is compared with that of a surface infiltration basin at a field site in north‐central Kansas. The performance of the surface basin was poor at the site due to the presence of a shallow continuous clay layer, identified with DP profiling methods, that constrained the downward movement of infiltrated water and significantly reduced the basin recharge capacity. The DP well penetrated through this clay layer and was able to recharge water by gravity alone at a much higher rate. Most importantly, the costs of the DP well, including both the construction and land costs, were only a small fraction of those for the infiltration basin. This low‐cost approach could significantly expand the applicability of ASR as a water resources management tool to entities with limited fiscal resources, such as many small municipalities and rural communities. The results of this investigation demonstrate the great potential of DP wells as a new recharge option for ASR projects in near‐surface unconsolidated aquifers.     

Heat balance and eddies in the Peru-Chile current system

The Peru-Chile current System (PCS) is a region of persistent biases in global climate models. It has strong coastal upwelling, alongshore boundary currents, and mesoscale eddies. These oceanic phenomena provide essential heat transport to maintain a cool oceanic surface underneath the prevalent atmospheric stratus cloud deck, through a combination of mean circulation and eddy flux. We demonstrate these behaviors in a regional, quasi-equilibrium oceanic model that adequately resolves the mesoscale eddies with climatological forcing. The key result is that the atmospheric heating is large (>50 W m^?2) over a substantial strip >500 km wide off the coast of Peru, and the balancing lateral oceanic flux is much larger than provided by the offshore Ekman flux alone. The atmospheric heating is weaker and the coastally influenced strip is narrower off Chile, but again the Ekman flux is not sufficient for heat balance. The eddy contribution to the oceanic flux is substantial. Analysis of eddy properties shows strong surface temperature fronts and associated large vorticity, especially off Peru. Cyclonic eddies moderately dominate the surface layer, and anticyclonic eddies, originating from the nearshore poleward Peru-Chile Undercurrent (PCUC), dominate the subsurface, especially off Chile. The sensitivity of the PCS heat balance to equatorial intra-seasonal oscillations is found to be small. We demonstrate that forcing the regional model with a representative, coarse-resolution global reanalysis wind product has dramatic and deleterious consequences for the oceanic circulation and climate heat balance, the eddy heat flux in particular.     

Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?

Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.     

Impacts of increased variability in precipitation and air temperature on net primary productivity of the Tibetan Plateau: a modeling analysis

We analyzed interannual variability (IAV) of precipitation and air temperature over a 40-year period (1969–2008) for 11 sites along a precipitation gradient on the Tibetan Plateau. The observed IAV for both precipitation and air temperature decreases with increasing mean annual precipitation. Using Biome-BGC, a process-based ecosystem model, we simulated net primary production (NPP) along this gradient and find that the IAV of NPP is positively correlated to the IAV of precipitation and temperature. Following projected climate change scenarios for the Tibetan Plateau, our simulations suggest that with increasing IAV of precipitation and temperature, the IAV of NPP will also increase and that climate thresholds exist that, if surpassed, lead to ecosystem die-off. The impacts of these changes on ecosystem processes and climate-vegetation feedbacks on the rapidly warming Tibetan Plateau are potentially quite significant.     

Lidar observations of turbulent vortex shedding by an isolated topographic feature

Scanning measurements by a single wavelength lidar (1.06 m) were made downwind of the Pt. Sur rock, an isolated hill (height 110 m) along the California coast. Turbulent eddies (approximate diameter 50 m) were observed detaching from a stationary aerosol feature above the rock and moving downwind. Under conditions with a high Froude number [1.8], the Strouhal number [0.22] of vortex shedding was close to that observed in tank experiments with a Reynolds number of 200.     

Ultra-wideband radar studies of steep crested waves with scanning laser measurements of wave slope profiles

We report results of ultra wide-band radar sea spike experiments using steep and weakly breaking non-linear water surface features in a wave tank. To generate these features we used a 1 s paddle wave and wind waves for a sequence of wind speeds. A scanning laser was used to measure synchronously the surface slope profile across 12 cm along the wave propagation direction once per radar pulse. A time domain reflectometer (TDR) radar transmitted short horizontally polarized pulses at X-band, several hundred picoseconds long, to give a range resolution of 10 cm. A radar range of 36 cm was digitally sampled so that surface feature echoes could be tracked through the area continuously with 5 ms temporal resolution with each instrument. We report results considering the wave slope component in the propagation direction and the corresponding curvature component. For the conditions studied, two types of features which produce sea spike radar echoes were generated–a non-linear feature near the crest front of the wind wave, caused by extreme steepening as a result of the passage of the paddle wave, and a steepened blocked wind wave in the trough of the paddle wave, caused by the local orbital current of the 1 s wave being nearly equal to and opposite the phase velocity of the wind wave.     

Climate uncertainties and their discontents: increasing the impact of assessments on public understanding of climate risks and choices

US public awareness of the reality and risks of human-caused climate change remains limited, despite strong evidence presented in the IPCC and other major climate assessments. One contributing factor may be that the immense collective effort to produce periodic climate assessments is typically not well matched with public communication and outreach efforts for these reports, leaving a vacuum to be filled by less authoritative sources. Print and online media coverage provides one metric of the US public reach of selected climate assessments between 2000 and 2010. The number of Lexis-Nexis articles for the search terms “climate change” or “global warming” within 14 days of each report’s release varied significantly over time with a peak occurring in 2007. When compared to background “chatter” relating to climate change, each assessment had widely diverse penetration in the US media (~4% for US National Climate Assessment in 2000; ~17% for Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment in 2004; ~19% and ~10% for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report Working Group I and Working Group II respectively in 2007; ~4% for the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) assessment report in 2009; and ~5% for US National Research Council’s America’s Climate Choices reports in 2010). We propose ways to improve the public reach of climate assessments, focusing in particular on approaches to more effectively characterize and communicate the role of uncertainty in human actions as distinct from other sources of uncertainty across the range of possible climate futures.     

Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change: Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand.     

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

PNNLs Agriculture and Land Use is used to demonstrate the impact of potential changes in climate on agricultural production and land use in the United States. AgLU simulates production of four crop types in several world regions, in 15-yr time steps from 1990 to 2095. Changes in yield of major field crops in the United States, for 12 climate scenarios, are obtained from simulations of the EPIC crop growth model. Results from the HUMUS model are used to constrain crop irrigation, and BIOME3 model is used to simulate productivity of unmanaged ecosystems. Assumptions about changes in agricultural productivity outside the United States are treated on a scenario basis, either responding in the same way as in the United States, or not responding to climate.