Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.     

Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change: Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand.     

Robustness of Recommended Farm Plans in England under Climate Change: A Monte Carlo Simulation

A methodology is described for estimating robustness of recommended farm plans under climate change while maintaining a meaningful representation of the underlying farm system. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) of crop yield data is used in conjunction with a fully specified farm-level model and output from a field worktime model. Estimates of farm net margin, enterprise mix (choice and area of enterprises), labour, machinery, storage and animal housing under mean crop yields and field worktimes for current (2000s) and 2050s conditions are generated. MCS is used to estimate the effect of crop yield variation on farm profitability and enterprise mix for the same periods by running the farm-level model with no constraints and running it constrained to the mean data plan. Estimates of robustness, measured as the percentage difference and the probability of exceeding the mean farm net-margin, were calculated from the outputs from these runs. For three representative farm types, mean farm net margin increased; however changes in robustness as shown by percentage difference in farm net margin depended on farm type while the probability of exceeding the mean plan net-margin decreased by 2050 indicating an increase in robustness. The most robust farm type had a diversified mix of enterprises and required no additional fixed resources by the 2050s. The least robust farm type was in a marginal location and mean plan recommendations for the 2050s required additional investment in fixed resources, particularly irrigation. It is concluded that the information provided by the methodology would be particularly useful to farmers: where mean data plans are not robust, MCS results could be used with financial planning techniques to minimise the impact of variability, rather than using high cost inputs to reduce variability per se.     

Reduced complexity strategies for modelling urban floodplain inundation

Significant advances in flood inundation modelling have been made in the last decade through the use of a new generation of 2D hydraulic numerical models. These offer the potential to predict the local pattern and timing of flood depth and velocity, enabling informed flood risk zoning and improved emergency planning. With the availability of high resolution DEMs derived from airborne lidar, these models can theoretically now be routinely parameterized to represent considerable topographic complexity, even in urban areas where the potential exists to represent flows at the scale of individual buildings. Currently, however, computational constraints on conventional finite element and volume codes typically require model discretization at scales well below those achievable with lidar and are thus unable to make optimal use of this emerging data stream.In this paper we review two strategies that attempt to address this mismatch between model and data resolution in an effort to improve urban flood forecasts. The first of these strives for a solution by simplifying the mathematical formulation of the numerical model by using a computationally efficient 2D raster storage cell approach coupled to a 1D channel model. This parsimonious model structure enables simulations over large model domains offering the opportunity to employ a topographic discretization strategy which explicitly represents the built environment. The second approach seeks to further reduce the computational overhead of this raster method by employing a subgrid parameterization to represent the effect of buildings and micro-relief on flow pathways and floodplain storage. This multi-scale methodology enables highly efficient model applications at coarse spatial resolutions while retaining information about the complex geometry of the built environment.These two strategies are evaluated through numerical experiments designed to reconstruct a flood in the small town of Linton in southern England, which occurred in response to a 1 in 250 year rainfall event in October 2001. Results from both approaches are encouraging, with the spatial pattern of inundation and flood wave propagation matching observations well. Both show significant advantages over a coarse resolution model without subgrid parameterisation, particularly in terms of their ability to reproduce both hydrograph and inundation depth measurements simultaneously, without need for recalibration. The subgrid parameterization is shown to achieve this without contributing significant computational complexity and reduces model run-times by an order of magnitude.     

Geomorphic constraints on the active tectonics of southern Taiwan

Taiwan is a region of rapid active tectonics, yet the study of the tectonic processes that shape the interior of the island is difficult due to the high rates of erosion and dense vegetation. We use digital topography to look for indications of active deformation preserved in the local geomorphology. In particular, anomalies in the regional pattern of drainage are used to infer zones of enhanced tectonic activity. The apparent anticlockwise rotation of major river systems in plan view indicates the presence of a diffuse zone of left-lateral shear running down the southeastern side of Taiwan. Asymmetries in the catchments of individual drainage basins show the influence of varying rates of uplift across southern Taiwan, with the most rapid uplift close to Taitung at the indentation point of the Luzon arc with the Chinese continental margin. Our interpretations, though based predominantly on remote-sensing observations, are consistent with the available field evidence. This study demonstrates the usefulness of drainage basins as tectonic markers in the quantification of regional strain and uplift, which may have wider applicability in other deforming parts of the world.     

Stratigraphic filtering and source penetration depth

Seismic exploration underneath highly heterogeneous layers such as basalt flows is possible by lowering the principal source frequency. Unfortunately this also reduces resolution. Wave‐localization theory is a multiple scattering theory that can be used to study stratigraphic filtering in chaotic lithologies. It predicts the apparent attenuation due to scattering of a plane wave traversing a layer with high velocity fluctuations. It can therefore predict the optimum principle source frequency in the trade‐off between loss of resolution and increased penetration depth. We show how this can be done with the help of a few statistical parameters derived from a well‐log analysis; namely, the average background velocity, the expected standard deviation in the velocity fluctuations, the typical scale length of the heterogeneities and the thickness of the basalt layer. In the likely situation that no local well logs exist, a multitude of scenarios can easily be examined at low cost.     

Topographic monitoring of a middle estuary mudflat, Humber estuary, UK – Anthropogenic impacts and natural variation

Annual topographic surveys were carried out at the Saltend mudflat (Humber estuary, UK) between 1998 and 2006. These surveys formed part of an ongoing monitoring programme to examine the potential effects on the mudflat topography of the construction and operation of a waste water treatment works (WwTW) development by Yorkshire Water. Of particular concern was the potential disruption to the sedimentological regime within the special protection area (SPA) and candidate special area of conservation (cSAC) which could affect the invertebrate communities and ornithological functioning of the site. In addition to the development of the WwTW located to the extreme north-west of the site, a port extension removing 10 ha of the Saltend intertidal mudflat (outside the SPA but immediately south east of the WwTW) also occurred between 1999 and 2006. Minimal change was noted across the site following the construction and operation of the WwTW between 1998 and 2000. However, the construction of the bund in closer proximity to the SPA and cSAC masked any potential impact the WwTW could have had across the site after 2000. Profiles and contour mapping indicate that significant mudflat accretion occurred in the immediate area of the bund, with a general increase recorded across the western section of the site since 2000. In contrast the alternations to channel planform and subsequent rapid accretion of the mudflat to the east of the jetty, being a significant distance from the developments, are attributed to natural cyclical changes.     

Climate and human health: synthesizing environmental complexity and uncertainty

Broad relationships between weather and human health have long been recognized, and there is currently a large body of research examining the impacts of climate change on human health. Much of the literature in this area examines climate–health relationships at global or regional levels, incorporating mostly generalized responses of pathogens and vectors to broad changes in climate. Far less research has been done to understand the direct and indirect climate-mediated processes involved at finer scales. Thus, some studies simplify the role of climate and may over- or under-estimate the potential response, while others have begun to highlight the subtle and complex role for climate that is contingent on other relevant processes occurring in natural and social environments. These fundamental processes need to be understood to determine the effects of past, current and future climate variation and change on human health. We summarize the principal climate variables and climate-dependent processes that are believed to impact human health across a representative set of diseases, along with key uncertainties in these relationships.     

Energy demands for seismic design against low‐cycle fatigue

A seismic design procedure that does not take into account the maximum and cumulative plastic deformation demands that a structure is likely to undergo during severe ground motion could lead to unsatisfactory performance. In spite of this, current design procedures do not take into account explicitly the effect of low‐cycle fatigue. Based on the high correlation that exists between the strength reduction factor and the energy demand in earthquake‐resistant structures, simple procedures can be formulated to estimate the cumulative plastic deformation demands for design purposes. Several issues should be addressed during the use of plastic energy within a practical performance‐based seismic design methodology. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.