Distribution and morphology of sinkholes triggered by flooding following Tropical Storm Alberto at Albany, Georgia, USA

Flooding of the Flint River in July 1994 triggered the collapse of at least 312 sinkholes in the karstic Dougherty Plain at Albany, Georgia. We examined the distribution and morphology of these new sinkholes to evaluate the mode of formation, to characterize early stages of the evolution of sinkhole form, and to estimate the lowering of the surface associated with the development of new sinkholes.Eighty-eight percent of sinkholes occur inside the limits of flooding, especially in areas of sandy overburden, and they often follow joint-controlled linear trends. Sinkhole dimensions are log-normally distributed with median values of circumference = 5.7 m, length = 1.8 m, width = 1.6 m, and depth = 0.7 m; asymmetry (L:W) = 1.2. Cross-sectional forms range from narrow cylinders to large bowls, with many sinkholes having undercut sides.Flooding triggered the formation of sinkholes by saturating and liquefying overburden, which caused soil arches to collapse and flow into cavities in bedrock. The prevalence of sinkholes near the periphery of flooding suggests that drainage and loss of buoyant support as flood waters subsided may also have contributed to failure. A volume ratio index is used to quantify the three dimensional geometric form of sinkholes. Initially, small cylindrical shafts open over a bedrock joint, followed by progressive slumping that leads to widening and increases in volume to a final bowl form. Estimates of the aggregate volume of overburden transported underground in flooded areas range from 7,990 to 11,130 m3. Averaged over flooded areas, this accounts for 0.26 to 0.37 mm/km² lowering of the surface. Based on a 500 year recurrence interval for the flood event, values for lowering of the surface range from 0.52 to 0.74 mm per 1,000 years. These values are an order of magnitude less than estimates of carbonate dissolution and suggest that transport of overburden underground is limited by triggering events.     

Representing and communicating deep uncertainty in climate-change assessments

IPCC reports provide a synthesis of the state of the science in order to inform the international policy process. This task is made difficult by the presence of deep uncertainty in the climate problem that results from long time scales and complexity. This paper focuses on how deep uncertainty can be effectively communicated. We argue that existing schemes do an inadequate job of communicating deep uncertainty and propose a simple approach that distinguishes between various levels of subjective understanding in a systematic manner. We illustrate our approach with two examples. To cite this article: M. Kandlikar et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Seismic response of light internal equipment in base-isolated structures

The seismic response of light secondary systems in a building is dependent on the response of the primary structural system to the seismic ground motion with the result that very high accelerations can be induced in such secondary systems. This response can be reduced through the use of aseismic base isolation which is a design strategy whereby the entire building can be decoupled from the damaging horizontal components of seismic ground motion by the use of some form of isolation system. The paper presents a theoretical analysis of the response of light equipment in isolated structures and a parallel experimental programme both of which show that the use of base isolation can not only attenuate the response of the primary structural system but also reduce the response of secondary systems. Thus, the design of equipment and piping in a base-isolated building is very much simpler than that for a conventionally founded structure: inelastic response and equipment-structure interaction need not be considered and multiple support response analysis is rendered unnecessary. Although an isolation system with linear elastic bearings can reduce the acceleration of the structure, it may be accompanied by large relative displacements between the structure and the ground. A system using lead-rubber hysteretic bearings, having a force-displacement relation which is approximately a bilinear loop, can reduce these displacements. A parallel experimental programme was carried out to investigate the response of light equipment in structures isolated using lead-rubber bearings. The experimental results show that these bearings can dissipate energy and limit the displacement and acceleration of the structure but are less effective in reducing the accelerations in the internal equipment. The results of both the analysis and the tests show that base isolation is a very effective method for the seismic protection of light equipment items in buildings.     

The solubility of quartz in aqueous sodium chloride solution at 350°C and 180 to 500 bars

The solubility of quartz in 2, 3, and 4 molal NaCl was measured at 350°C and pressures ranging from 180 to 500 bars. The molal solubility in each of the salt solutions is greater than that in pure water throughout the measured pressure range, with the ratio of solubility in NaCl solution to solubility in pure water decreasing as pressure is increased. The measured solubilities are significantly higher than solubilities calculated using a simple model in which the water activity in NaCl solutions decreases either in proportion to decreasing vapor pressure of the solution as salinity is increased or in proportion to decreasing mole fraction of water in the solvent.     

Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.