Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean–atmosphere models

The overall skill of ENSO prediction in retrospective forecasts made with ten different coupled GCMs is investigated. The coupled GCM datasets of the APCC/CliPAS and DEMETER projects are used for four seasons in the common 22 years from 1980 to 2001. As a baseline, a dynamic-statistical SST forecast and persistence are compared. Our study focuses on the tropical Pacific SST, especially by analyzing the NINO34 index. In coupled models, the accuracy of the simulated variability is related to the accuracy of the simulated mean state. Almost all models have problems in simulating the mean and mean annual cycle of SST, in spite of the positive influence of realistic initial conditions. As a result, the simulation of the interannual SST variability is also far from perfect in most coupled models. With increasing lead time, this discrepancy gets worse. As one measure of forecast skill, the tier-1 multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts of NINO3.4 SST have an anomaly correlation coefficient of 0.86 at the month 6. This is higher than that of any individual model as well as both forecasts based on persistence and those made with the dynamic-statistical model. The forecast skill of individual models and the MME depends strongly on season, ENSO phase, and ENSO intensity. A stronger El Niño is better predicted. The growth phases of both the warm and cold events are better predicted than the corresponding decaying phases. ENSO-neutral periods are far worse predicted than warm or cold events. The skill of forecasts that start in February or May drops faster than that of forecasts that start in August or November. This behavior, often termed the spring predictability barrier, is in part because predictions starting from February or May contain more events in the decaying phase of ENSO.     

Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model ECBILT-CLIO and force it with freshwater input into the North Atlantic to simulate abrupt glacial climate events, which we use as analogues for D-O events. We focus our analysis on the Northern Hemisphere. The simulated events show large differences in the regional and seasonal distribution of the temperature and precipitation changes. While the temperature changes in high northern latitudes and in the North Atlantic region are dominated by winter changes, the largest temperature increases in most other land regions are seen in spring. Smallest changes over land are found during the summer months. Our model simulations also demonstrate that the temperature and precipitation change patterns for different intensifications of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are not linear. The extent of the transitions varies, and local non-linearities influence the amplitude of the annual mean response as well as the response in different seasons. Implications for the interpretation of paleo-records are discussed.     

Dynamical passage to approximate equilibrium shapes for spinning, gravitating rubble asteroids

Many asteroids are thought to be particle aggregates held together principally by self-gravity. Here we study — for static and dynamical situations — the equilibrium shapes of spinning asteroids that are permitted for rubble piles. As in the case of spinning fluid masses, not all shapes are compatible with a granular rheology. We take the asteroid to always be an ellipsoid with an interior modeled as a rigid-plastic, cohesion-less material with a Drucker-Prager yield criterion. Using an approximate volume-averaged procedure, based on the classical method of moments, we investigate the dynamical process by which such objects may achieve equilibrium. We first collapse our dynamical approach to its statical limit to derive regions in spin-shape parameter space that allow equilibrium solutions to exist. At present, only a graphical illustration of these solutions for a prolate ellipsoid following the Drucker-Prager failure law is available [Sharma, I., Jenkins, J.T., Burns, J.A., 2005a. Bull. Am. Astron. Soc. 37, 643; Sharma, I., Jenkins, J.T., Burns, J.A., 2005b. Equilibrium shapes of ellipsoidal soil asteroids. In: García-Rojo, R., Hermann, H.J., McNamara, S. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Micromechanics of Granular Media, vol. 1. A.A. Balkema, UK; Holsapple, K.A., 2007. Icarus 187, 500-509]. Here, we obtain the equilibrium landscapes for general triaxial ellipsoids, as well as provide the requisite governing formulae. In addition, we demonstrate that it may be possible to better interpret the results of Richardson et al. [Richardson, D.C., Elankumaran, P., Sanderson, R.E., 2005. Icarus 173, 349-361] within the context of a Drucker-Prager material. The graphical result for prolate ellipsoids in the static limit is the same as those of Holsapple [Holsapple, K.A., 2007. Icarus 187, 500-509] because, when worked out, his final equations will match ours. This is because, though the formalisms to reach these expressions differ, in statics, at the lowest level of approximation, volume-averaging and the approach of Holsapple [Holsapple, K.A., 2007. Icarus 187, 500-509] coincide. We note that the approach applied here was obtained independently [Sharma, I., Jenkins, J.T., Burns, J.A., 2003. Bull. Am. Astron. Soc. 35, 1034; Sharma, I., 2004. Rotational Dynamics of Deformable Ellipsoids with Applications to Asteroids. Ph.D. thesis, Cornell University] and it provides a general, though approximate, framework that is amenable to systematic improvements and is flexible enough to incorporate the dynamical effects of a changing shape, different rheologies and complex rotational histories. To demonstrate our technique, we investigate the non-equilibrium dynamics of rigid-plastic, spinning, prolate asteroids to examine the simultaneous histories of shape and spin rate for rubble piles. We have succeeded in recovering most results of Richardson et al. [Richardson, D.C., Elankumaran, P., Sanderson, R.E., 2005. Icarus 173, 349-361], who obtained equilibrium shapes by studying numerically the passage into equilibrium of aggregates containing discrete, interacting, frictionless, spherical particles. Our mainly analytical approach aids in understanding and quantifying previous numerical simulations.     

Cosmography with cluster strong lensing

By stacking an ensemble of strong lensing clusters, we demonstrate the feasibility of placing constraints on the dark energy equation of state. This is achieved by using multiple images of sources at two or more distinct redshift planes. The sample of smooth clusters in our simulations is based on observations of massive clusters and the distribution of background galaxies is constructed using the Hubble Deep Field . Our source distribution reproduces the observed redshift distribution of multiply imaged sources in Abell 1689. The cosmology recovery depends on the number of image families with known spectroscopic redshifts and the number of stacked clusters. Our simulations suggest that constraints comparable to those derived from other competing established techniques on a constant dark energy equation of state can be obtained using 10–40 clusters with five or more families of multiple images. We have also studied the observational errors in the image redshifts and positions. We find that spectroscopic redshifts and high-resolution Hubble Space Telescope ( HST ) images are required to eliminate confidence contour relaxation relative to the ideal case in our simulations. This suggests that the dark energy equation of state, and other cosmological parameters, can be constrained with existing HST images of lensing clusters coupled with dedicated ground-based arc spectroscopy.     

Chemical evolution with radial mixing

Models of the chemical evolution of our Galaxy are extended to include radial migration of stars and flow of gas through the disc. The models track the production of both iron and α-elements. A model is chosen that provides an excellent fit to the metallicity distribution of stars in the Geneva–Copenhagen survey (GCS) of the solar neighbourhood and a good fit to the local Hess diagram. The model provides a good fit to the distribution of GCS stars in the age–metallicity plane, although this plane was not used in the fitting process. Although this model's star formation rate is monotonically declining, its disc naturally splits into an α-enhanced thick disc and a normal thin disc. In particular, the model's distribution of stars in the ([O/Fe], [Fe/H]) plane resembles that of Galactic stars in displaying a ridge line for each disc. The thin-disc's ridge line is entirely due to stellar migration, and there is the characteristic variation of stellar angular momentum along it that has been noted by Haywood in survey data. Radial mixing of stellar populations with high  σ _z   from inner regions of the disc to the solar neighbourhood provides a natural explanation of why measurements yield a steeper increase of  σ _z   with age than predicted by theory. The metallicity gradient in the interstellar medium is predicted to be steeper than in earlier models, but appears to be in good agreement with data for both our Galaxy and external galaxies. The models are inconsistent with a cut-off in the star formation rate at low gas surface densities. The absolute magnitude of the disc is given as a function of time in several photometric bands, and radial colour profiles are plotted for representative times.     

Annual cycles in the interstellar scintillation time-scales of PKS B1519–273 and PKS B1622–253

We have used the University of Tasmania's 30-m radio telescope at Ceduna in South Australia to regularly monitor the flux density of a number of southern blazars. We report the detection of an annual cycle in the variability time-scale of the centimetre radio emission of PKS B1622−253. Observations of PKS B1519−273 over a period of nearly 2 yr confirm the presence of an annual cycle in the variability time-scale in that source. These observations prove that interstellar scintillation is the principal cause of inter-day variability at radio wavelengths in these sources. The best-fitting annual cycle model for both sources implies a high degree of anisotropy in the scattering screen and that it has a large velocity offset with respect to the local standard of rest. This is consistent with a greater screen distance for these 'slow' intra-day variability (IDV) sources than for rapid scintillators such as PKS B0405−385 or J1819+3845.     

Optical and near-infrared colours as a discriminant of the age and metallicity of stellar populations

We present a comprehensive analysis of the ability of current stellar population models to reproduce the optical ( ugriz ) and near-infrared ( JHK ) colours of a small sample of well-studied nearby elliptical and S0 galaxies. We find broad agreement between the ages and metallicities derived using different population models, although different models show different systematic deviations from the measured broad-band fluxes. Although it is possible to constrain simple stellar population models to a well-defined area in age–metallicity space, there is a clear degeneracy between these parameters even with such a full range of precise colours. The precision to which age and metallicity can be determined independently, using only broad-band photometry with realistic errors, is  Δ[Fe/H]≃ 0.18  and  Δlog Age ≃ 0.25  . To constrain the populations and therefore the star formation history further, it will be necessary to combine broad-band optical–IR photometry with either spectral line indices, or else photometry at wavelengths outside this range.     

Do high-velocity clouds form by thermal instability?

We examine the proposal that the H  i 'high-velocity' clouds (HVCs) surrounding the Milky Way and other disc galaxies form by condensation of the hot galactic corona via thermal instability. Under the assumption that the galactic corona is well represented by a non-rotating, stratified atmosphere, we find that for this formation mechanism to work the corona must have an almost perfectly flat entropy profile. In all other cases, the growth of thermal perturbations is suppressed by a combination of buoyancy and thermal conduction. Even if the entropy profile were nearly flat, cold clouds with sizes smaller than  10 kpc  could form in the corona of the Milky Way only at radii larger than  100 kpc  , in contradiction with the determined distances of the largest HVC complexes. Clouds with sizes of a few kpc can form in the inner halo only in low-mass systems. We conclude that unless even slow rotation qualitatively changes the dynamics of a corona, thermal instability is unlikely to be a viable mechanism for formation of cold clouds around disc galaxies.     

On the origin of the 511-keV emission in the Galactic Centre

Diffuse 511-keV line emission, from the annihilation of cold positrons, has been observed in the direction of the Galactic Centre for more than 30 yr. The latest high-resolution maps of this emission produced by the SPI instrument on INTEGRAL suggest at least one component of the emission is spatially coincident with the distribution of ∼70 luminous, low-mass X-ray binaries detected in the soft gamma-ray band. The X-ray band, however, is generally a more sensitive probe of X-ray binary populations. Recent X-ray surveys of the Galactic Centre have discovered a much larger population (>4000) of faint, hard X-ray point sources. We investigate the possibility that the positrons observed in the direction of the Galactic Centre originate in pair-dominated jets generated by this population of fainter accretion-powered X-ray binaries. We also consider briefly whether such sources could account for unexplained diffuse emission associated with the Galactic Centre in the microwave (the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe 'haze') and at other wavelengths. Finally, we point out several unresolved problems in associating Galactic Centre 511-keV emission with the brightest X-ray binaries.     

The sensitivity of the next generation of lunar Cherenkov observations to UHE neutrinos and cosmic rays

We present simulation results for the detection of ultra-high energy (UHE) cosmic ray (CR) and neutrino interactions in the Moon by radio-telescopes. We simulate the expected radio signal at Earth from such interactions, expanding on previous work to include interactions in the sub-regolith layer for single dish and multiple telescope systems. For previous experiments at Parkes, Goldstone (GLUE), and Kalyazin we recalculate the sensitivity to an isotropic flux of UHE neutrinos. We find the published sensitivity for the GLUE experiment to be too high (too optimistic) by an order of magnitude, and consequently the GLUE limit to be too low by an order of magnitude. Our predicted sensitivity for future experiments using the Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA) and the Australian SKA Pathfinder (ASKAP) indicate these instruments will be able to detect the more optimistic UHE neutrino flux predictions, while the square kilometre array (SKA) will also be sensitive to all bar one prediction of a diffuse ‘cosmogenic’, or ‘GZK’, neutrino flux.Outstanding theoretical uncertainties at both high-frequency and low-frequency limits currently prevent a reliable estimate of the sensitivity of the lunar Cherenkov technique for UHE cosmic ray (CR) astronomy. Here, we place limits on the effects of large-scale surface roughness on UHE CR detection, and find that when near-surface ‘formation-zone’ effects are ignored, the proposed SKA low-frequency aperture array could detect CR events above 56 EeV at a rate between 15 and 40 times that of the current Pierre Auger Observatory. Should further work indicate that formation-zone effects have little impact on UHE CR sensitivity, observations of the Moon with the SKA would allow directional analysis of UHE cosmic rays, and investigation of correlations with putative cosmic ray source populations, to be conducted with very high statistics.