Representing and communicating deep uncertainty in climate-change assessments

IPCC reports provide a synthesis of the state of the science in order to inform the international policy process. This task is made difficult by the presence of deep uncertainty in the climate problem that results from long time scales and complexity. This paper focuses on how deep uncertainty can be effectively communicated. We argue that existing schemes do an inadequate job of communicating deep uncertainty and propose a simple approach that distinguishes between various levels of subjective understanding in a systematic manner. We illustrate our approach with two examples. To cite this article: M. Kandlikar et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Tracking the last sea-level cycle: seafloor morphology and shallow stratigraphy of the latest Quaternary New Jersey middle continental shelf

Seafloor geomorphology and surficial stratigraphy of the New Jersey middle continental shelf provide a detailed record of sea-level change during the last advance and retreat of the Laurentide ice sheet (120 kyr B.P. to Present). A NW–SE-oriented corridor on the middle shelf between water depths of 40 m (the mid-shelf “paleo-shore”) and 100 m (the Franklin “paleo-shore”) encompasses 500 line-km of 2D Huntec boomer profiles (500–3500 Hz), an embedded 4.6 km² 3D volume, and a 490 km² swath bathymetry map. We use these data to develop a relative stratigraphy. Core samples from published studies also provide some chronological and sedimentological constraints on the upper <5 m of the stratigraphic succession.The following stratigraphic units and surfaces occur (from bottom to top): (1) “R”, a high-amplitude reflection that separates sediment >46.5 kyr old (by AMS ¹⁴C dating) from overlying sediment wedges; (2) the outer shelf wedge, a marine unit up to 50 m thick that onlaps “R”; (3) “Channels”, a reflection sub-parallel to the seafloor that incises “R”, and appears as a dendritic system of channels in map view; (4) “Channels” fill, the upper portion of which is sampled and known to represent deepening-upward marine sediments 12.3 kyr in age; (5) the “T” horizon, a seismically discontinuous surface that caps “Channels” fill; (6) oblique ridge deposits, coarse-grained shelly units comprised of km-scale, shallow shelf bedforms; and (7) ribbon-floored swales, bathymetric depressions parallel to modern shelf currents that truncate the oblique ridges and cut into surficial deposits.We interpret this succession of features in light of a global eustatic sea-level curve and the consequent migration of the coastline across the middle shelf during the last 120 kyr. The morphology of the New Jersey middle shelf shows a discrete sequence of stratigraphic elements, and reflects the pulsed episodicity of the last sea-level cycle. “R” is a complicated marine/non-marine erosional surface formed during the last regression, while the outer shelf wedge represents a shelf wedge emplaced during a minor glacial retreat before maximum Wisconsin lowstand (i.e., marine oxygen isotope stage 3.1). “Channels” is a widespread fluvial subarial erosion surface formed at the late Wisconsin glacial maximum 22 kyr B.P. The shoreline migrated back across the mid-shelf corridor non-uniformly during the period represented by “Channels” fill. Oblique ridges are relict features on the New Jersey middle shelf, while the ribbon-floored swales represent modern shelf erosion. There is no systematic relationship between modern seafloor morphology and the very shallowly buried stratigraphic succession.     

Seismic response of light internal equipment in base-isolated structures

The seismic response of light secondary systems in a building is dependent on the response of the primary structural system to the seismic ground motion with the result that very high accelerations can be induced in such secondary systems. This response can be reduced through the use of aseismic base isolation which is a design strategy whereby the entire building can be decoupled from the damaging horizontal components of seismic ground motion by the use of some form of isolation system. The paper presents a theoretical analysis of the response of light equipment in isolated structures and a parallel experimental programme both of which show that the use of base isolation can not only attenuate the response of the primary structural system but also reduce the response of secondary systems. Thus, the design of equipment and piping in a base-isolated building is very much simpler than that for a conventionally founded structure: inelastic response and equipment-structure interaction need not be considered and multiple support response analysis is rendered unnecessary. Although an isolation system with linear elastic bearings can reduce the acceleration of the structure, it may be accompanied by large relative displacements between the structure and the ground. A system using lead-rubber hysteretic bearings, having a force-displacement relation which is approximately a bilinear loop, can reduce these displacements. A parallel experimental programme was carried out to investigate the response of light equipment in structures isolated using lead-rubber bearings. The experimental results show that these bearings can dissipate energy and limit the displacement and acceleration of the structure but are less effective in reducing the accelerations in the internal equipment. The results of both the analysis and the tests show that base isolation is a very effective method for the seismic protection of light equipment items in buildings.     

The solubility of quartz in aqueous sodium chloride solution at 350°C and 180 to 500 bars

The solubility of quartz in 2, 3, and 4 molal NaCl was measured at 350°C and pressures ranging from 180 to 500 bars. The molal solubility in each of the salt solutions is greater than that in pure water throughout the measured pressure range, with the ratio of solubility in NaCl solution to solubility in pure water decreasing as pressure is increased. The measured solubilities are significantly higher than solubilities calculated using a simple model in which the water activity in NaCl solutions decreases either in proportion to decreasing vapor pressure of the solution as salinity is increased or in proportion to decreasing mole fraction of water in the solvent.     

Prawn postlarvae fishing in coastal Bangladesh: Challenges for sustainable livelihoods

Fishing for prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) postlarvae is a major contributor to the livelihoods of the coastal poor in Bangladesh, including women. A study of coastal livelihoods along the lower Pasur River in southwest Bangladesh indicates that on average 40% of total annual income comes from postlarvae fishing during the few months involved. However, indiscriminate fishing of wild postlarvae, with high levels of by-catch, has an impact on biodiversity in coastal ecosystems. This has provoked imposition of restrictions on postlarvae collection. The ban has, however, not been firmly enforced because of the lack of alternative livelihoods for coastal poor. A conceptual framework, drawn from an approach to poverty reduction known as the sustainable livelihoods approach, is applied to understanding the role of prawn postlarvae fishing. Evidence from this study suggests that postlarvae fishers faced a number of livelihood constraints, including poor livelihood assets. This paper concludes that wider livelihood options need to be found for postlarvae fishers to support their livelihoods.     

Spatial Variation in the Structure of Kelp Forest Communities Along a Wave Exposure Gradient

Abstract. Four sites were sampled in kelp (Macrocysiis pyrifera) forests occupying rocky bottom habitats along a wave exposure gradient in central California. Consistent betwecn-site differences were found in the three major structural elements - the surface canopy, the undcrstory assemblage, and the ground cover/turf assemblage - of kelp forest communities. Macrocysiis pyrifera was found at all four sites. Nereucyslis tuelkeana only at the most exposed site. The understory kelps Laminaria setchellii and Pterygopltora californica were also characteristic of exposed sites. Articulated coralline algae were more abundant at exposed sites than protected, while fleshy red algae showed the opposite pattern. All four study sites were located along 8.5 km of coastline, and thus were assumed to have available to them the same species pool for colonization. The substrate composition was the same and the amount of unconsolidated substrate was similar at all four sites. We suggest that exposure to wave-generated water motion, through its influence on the surface canopy and therefore on the amount of light reaching the bottom, is responsible for these between-site differences.