Estimating maximum magnitude earthquakes in Iraq using extreme value statistics

Summary. Extreme value theory is used to estimate maximum magnitude earthquakes in Iraq (29–38°N, 39–48°E). The seismicity file for the period 1905–1982 is used to determine the recurrence relationship as well as the parameters of Gumbel types I and III asymptotic distributions.
The statistical parameters are estimated by both least squares and maximum likelihood techniques. Results show that although the least squares upper magnitude is closer in value to actual earthquake magnitude, the maximum likelihood approximation to the third distribution appears to show a better overall fit to the data sample. This result is reflected in the calculated probability of occurrence of earthquake risk over various design periods.     

The effect of orthorhombic anisotropy and its implication for oil recovery and reservoir exploitation

Results of an experimental study of shear‐ and compressional‐wave propagation in an orthorhombically anisotropic medium are presented. The experiments were performed on a physical model consisting of two sets of fractures. The first set consisted of orientated rubber inclusions simulating weak material‐filled cracks. The second set consisted of a system of closely spaced parallel fractures simulated by thin plates of epoxy resin, superimposed orthogonally on the first set. Three cases of fracture orientations within the model were identified and studied. Case 1 is analogous to a jointed fracture reservoir with one vertical set of fluid‐filled cracks or fractures and one non‐filled horizontal set. This case is referred to as JFV. Case 2 is analogous to a double fracture reservoir with one horizontal set of fluid‐filled fractures or cracks and one non‐filled vertical set. This is referred to as DFH. Case 3 is analogous to a double fracture reservoir with two vertical sets of fractures or cracks, with only one fluid‐filled. Case 3 is referred to as DFV. A pulse transmission method was performed on all three modelled cases along the three principal axes. A directional variation in the compressional‐ and shear‐wave velocities, as well as distinct shear‐wave splitting, was observed. The elastic constants for each case were determined and differences between them were noted and compared with the controlled results of both layered (transverse isotropy, TI) and vertically fractured (azimuthally anisotropic models, VF) media. The differences in elastic moduli and velocities indicate the potential of recognizing the different fracture orientations and suggest an approach to designing a method of drilling to further enhance oil recovery and reservoir exploitation.     

Seismic intensity zoning and earthquake risk mapping in Iraq

The recently published Iraqi earthquake data file over the period 1905–1984 is used to derive a local I _o -M _s formula. This is then combined with a local intensity attenuation relationship to compile the observed I _o (MM) zoning map for Iraq. Earthquake risk is calculated using the log N (M _s )relation for selected design magnitudes and periods and is mapped as the (%) probability of occurrence using a 0.5 deg latitude/longitude grid system. It is observed that the intensity zones and contour distributions are highly influenced by the presence of large magnitude shocks while risk maps reveal the Tauros seismogenic zone as having a greater risk of occurrence than the Zagros zone. The compiled zoning maps are intended for the use of local practising engineers for earthquake-resistant design procedures that are currently being adopted in the country.     

Biostratigraphy,Microfacies and Depositional Environment of the Sarvak Formation at the Pyun Anticline (Zagros Basin,Southwest of Iran)

The Sarvak Formation is a carbonate sequence of Late Albian–Early Turonian age in Zagros Basin in Iran. In this investigation, the Sarvak Formation at the Pyun Anticline section (Izeh Zone) has been studied. It consists of 797 m thick limestone which overlies the Kazhdumi Formation conformably and underlies the Gurpi Formation unconformably at the Pyun Anticline. A very rich fossil association (85 genera and 132 species) characterizes the Pyun section. Based on the stratigraphic distribution of diagnosed foraminifera, five biozones are established: 1, Muricohedbergella-Globigerinelloides sp. assemblage zone (Late Albian); 2, Praealveolina iberica-Chrysalidina gradata interval zone (Early Cenomanian); 3, Chrysalidina gradata-Cisalveolina fraasi (fallax) and C. lehneri interval zone (Middle Cenomanian); 4, C. fraasi (fallax) and C. lehneri-Praetaberina bingistani assemblage zone (Late Cenomanian); 5, Nezzazatinella picardi-Mangashtia- Dicyclina assemblage zone (Early Turonian). Based on the petrographic and sedimentological analyses, some 13 carbonate microfacies were identified. The investigated microfacies confirm a ramp-type paleoenvironment. These microfacies, from distal to proximal environments, consist of: MF1: planktonic foraminifera wackestone-packstone; MF2: Oligostegina planktonic foraminifera wackestone to packstone; MF3: planktonic-benthic foraminifers sponge spicules wackestone-packstone; MF4: rudist floatstone; MF5: rudist rudstone; MF6: bioclast intraclast grainstone; MF7: peloid intraclast grainstone; MF8: benthic foraminifers rudist grainstone-packstone; MF9: peloid bioclast grainstone-packstone; MF10: bioclast (benthic foraminifers) wackestone-packstone; MF11: peloid bioclast packstone; MF12: dacycladacea benthic foraminifera packstone-wackestone; MF13: miliolids wackestone-packstone.     

An Exploration of Future Patterns of the Contributions to OpenStreetMap and Development of a Contribution Index

OpenStreetMap (OSM) represents one of the most well‐known examples of a collaborative mapping project. Major research efforts have so far dealt with data quality analysis but the modality of OSM's evolution across space and time has barely been noted. This study aims to analyze spatio‐temporal patterns of contributions in OSM by proposing a contribution index (CI) in order to investigate the dynamism of OSM. The CI is based on a per cell analysis of the node quantity, interactivity, semantics, and attractivity (the ability to attract contributors). Additionally this research explores whether OSM has been constantly attracting new users and contributions or if OSM has experienced a decline in its ability to attract continued contributions. Using the Stuttgart region of Germany as a case study the empirical findings of the CI over time confirm that since 2007, OSM has been constantly attracting new users, who create new features, edit the existing spatial objects, and enrich them with attributes. This rate has been dramatically growing since 2011. The utilization of a Cellular Automata‐Markov (CA‐Markov) model provides evidence that by the end of 2016 and 2020, the rise of CI will spread out over the study area and only a few cells without OSM features will remain.     

Aquifer porosity in the Pan-African semi-arid context

Water scarcity is one of the major concerns that people are facing worldwide. Although the liquid is absolutely abundant through the globe, its availability poses too much problems specifically to each region. Those problems can result in one or a combination of three basic situations: declining water (drought), overabundance of surface water (floods) or degradation of the quality of water (pollution). All these situations are reflected in the scarcity of good quality water. Arid regions are particularly concerned. In such areas where groundwater contained in aquifers is usually perceived as providence, any project of groundwater exploration and exploitation must be preceded by prior careful and meticulous investigation, in order to avoid early and premature drying. This investigation is likely to predict the future behaviour of aquifers and to improve the groundwater resources management. Beside fundamental properties as hydraulic conductivity, the present paper that addresses the water sector in the semi-arid region of northern Cameroon emphasizes the importance of porosity on aquifer productivity and consequently on the groundwater resources management. The porosity of the local aquifer has then been determined using the Waxman and Smits model which establishes a reliable relationship between the apparent and corrected formation factors, F _a and F _c , taking the clay effects into consideration. This approach can be applied in other similar semi-arid regions through the world.     

Observations and Modeling of B[e] Stars

We give a short definition of B[e] star and we show spectrocopicvariabilities obtained for the peculiar star HD 45677 especialy for the strong He I line at 5876 Å. We present also some photometric observations for this type of stars that show a important excess in thenear and mid infrared due to the presence of circumstellar dust. The modelingof these stars shows that a simple model with a spherical dust shell fits well the observations. High spatial resolution gives an additional constraint on the modeling.     

Shoreline spatial and temporal response to natural and human effects in Boujagh National Park,Iran

Shoreline variation and river deltas are among the most dynamic systems in marine environments. The related different variations in spatial and temporal scales play significant roles in land planning and different management applications. Modeling the dynamics of seashore of Boujagh National Park (BNP) which is located on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea in the Sefidrud Delta (SD), considering natural and anthropogenic factors, was the main objective of the current study. To achieve this goal, a combination of remote sensing data, historical data, and numerical simulations was utilized. The BNP covers an area of 3,270 ha and includes two international wetlands, Boujagh and Kiashahr. In earlier periods, this area faced severe morphological changes whereas recently its shoreline has experienced gradual variations. Accordingly, at the first stage, the shoreline variation from 2006 to 2017 was extracted by processing and classifying Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thematic Mapper (TM) images from Landsat satellites using the Maximum Likelihood approach. In the second stage, the two dimensional MIKE21 model was utilized to identify wave and coastal current patterns and parameters for the year 2015. Morphologically, the results showed that, the shoreline of the BNP is affected by several natural and anthropogenic factors. Seaward advancement of the shoreline occurred in zones A (east zone) and C (west zone) due to Caspian Sea Level drop and sedimentation while retreating occurred at Zone B (north zone) influenced by wave and current patterns and reduction of the Sefidrud River flows. Also, the results imply that maintaining the existing conditions results in the disappearance of a considerable part of the ecological area in the BNP. Hence, to manage and preserve the coastline of the BNP complying with the current anthropogenic and natural factors, it is vital to take necessary management measures.     

Solving non-linear Lane–Emden type equations using Bessel orthogonal functions collocation method

The Lane–Emden type equations are employed in the modeling of several phenomena in the areas of mathematical physics and astrophysics. These equations are categorized as non-linear singular ordinary differential equations on the semi-infinite domain $[0,\infty )$ . In this research we introduce the Bessel orthogonal functions as new basis for spectral methods and also, present an efficient numerical algorithm based on them and collocation method for solving these well-known equations. We compare the obtained results with other results to verify the accuracy and efficiency of the presented scheme. To obtain the orthogonal Bessel functions we need their roots. We use the algorithm presented by Glaser et al. (SIAM J Sci Comput 29:1420–1438, 2007) to obtain the $N$ roots of Bessel functions.     

Geoelectrical and hydrochemical investigations for characterizing the salt water intrusion in the Khanasser valley, northern Syria

An integrated approach of geoelectrical and hydrochemical investigation surveys was proposed for indicating contact regions between saline and fresh groundwater in the Khanasser valley region, northern Syria. The qualitative and quantitative interpretations of 34 vertical electrical soundings (VES) enable to characterize the salt water intrusion laterally and vertically. The established iso-apparent resistivity maps for different AB/2 spacings obviously indicate the presence of a lowresistivity (less than 4 Ohm·m) zone related to the salt water intrusion in the Quaternary and Paleogene deposits. The different hydrochemical and geophysical parameters, such as electrical resistivity, total dissolved solids (TDS) and major ions concentrations used to characterize the salt water intrusion gave almost similar results in locating and mapping the different boundaries of the groundwater salinity. The proposed approach is useful for mapping the interface between different groundwater qualities, and can be therefore used to successfully characterize the salt water intrusion phenomenon in other semi-arid regions. The application of such an approach is a powerful tool and can be used for water resource management in the water scarce areas.