Geographical Information Systems and Geostatistics for Modelling Radioactively Contaminated Land Areas

The Chernobyl plume contaminated vast lands of Europe with radiocaesium (¹37Cs) in 1986 because of the deposition of radionuclides on the ground by wet and dry deposition processes. Nevertheless, in a nuclear emergency, contamination data may be very sparse and there is need to make rapid and scientifically supported decisions. Here we analyze the rainfall field, an important precursor of the wet deposition, during the passage of the plume. Thus, estimating rainfall spatial variability can help to identify possible contaminated areas and associated risks when rainfall exceeded a given threshold. In this paper, we show that the conditional probabilities of exceeding threshold rainfall values could be spatially assessed using the mutual benefits of linking geostatistical and geographical information system (GIS) to quantify the evaluation of the risk involved in decision making. In particular, the non-parametric geostatistic technique, termed Indicator Kriging (IK), enables one to efficiently estimate the probability that the true value exceeds the threshold values by means of the indicator coding transform. Afterward, GIS has been used to find the areas probably affected by wash-out (probability >0.5 that rainfall is above a certain threshold). The experimental study has been focused on a test site in Beneventan agroecosystem (Southern Italy) to model the spatial uncertainty over a continuous area from sparse rainfall data. This enabled to generate probability maps delineating area potentially affected by to contamination to be monitored after wet deposition of Chernobyl releases.     

The Role of Education in the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program

Tsunami education activities, materials, and programs are recognized by the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) as the essential tool for near-source tsunami mitigation. Prior to the NTHMP, there were no state tsunami education programs outside of Hawaii and few earthquake education materials included tsunami hazards. In the first year of the NTHMP, a Strategic Plan was developed providing the framework for mitigation projects in the program. The Strategic Plan identifies education as the first of five mitigation strategic planning areas and targets a number of user groups, including schools, businesses, tourists, seasonal workers, planners, government officials, and the general public. In the 6 years of the NTHMP tsunami education programs have been developed in all five Pacific States and include print, electronic and video/film products, curriculum, signage, fairs and workshops, and public service announcements. Multi-state education projects supported by the NTHMP include TsuInfo, a bi-monthly newsletter, and Surviving a Tsunami, a booklet illustrating lessons from the 1960 Chilean tsunami. An additional education component is provided by the Public Affairs Working Group (PAWG) that promotes media coverage of tsunamis and the NTHMP. Assessment surveys conducted in Oregon, Washington, and Northern California show an increase in tsunami awareness and recognition of tsunami hazards among the general population since the NTHMP inception.     

Volcanic and Scientific Activity at Kick ’em Jenny Submarine Volcano 2001–2002: Implications for Volcanic Hazard in the Southern Grenadines,Lesser Antilles

Kick em Jenny submarine volcano, ~8 km north of Grenada, has erupted at least 12 times since it was first discovered in 1939, making it the most frequently active volcano in the Lesser Antilles arc. The volcano lies in shallow water close to significant population centres and directly beneath a major shipping route, and as a consequence an understanding of the eruptive behaviour and potential hazards at the volcano is critical. The most recent eruption at Kick em Jenny occurred on December 4 2001, and differed significantly from past eruptions in that it was preceded by an intensive volcanic earthquake swarm. In March 2002 a multi-beam bathymetric survey of the volcano and its surroundings was carried out by the NOAA ship Ronald H Brown. This survey provided detailed three-dimensional images of the volcano, revealing the detailed morphology of the summit area. The volcano is capped by a summit crater which is breached to the northeast and which varies in diameter from 300 to 370 m. The depth to the summit (highest point on the crater rim) is 185 m and the depth to the lowest point inside the crater is 264 m. No dome is present within the crater. The crater and summit region of Kick em Jenny are located at the top of an asymmetrical cone which is about 1300 m from top to bottom on its western side. It lies within what appear to be the remnants of a much larger arcuate collapse structure. An evaluation of the morphology, bathymetry and eruptive history of the volcano indicates that the threat of eruption-generated tsunamis is considerably lower than previously thought, mainly because the volcano is no longer thought to be growing towards the surface. Of more major and immediate concern are the direct hazards associated with the volcano, such as ballistic ejecta, water disturbances and lowered water density due to degassing.     

The U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program: A Successful State–Federal Partnership

The U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) is a State/Federal partnership created to reduce tsunami hazards along U.S. coastlines. Established in 1996, NTHMP coordinates the efforts of five Pacific States: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington with the three Federal agencies responsible for tsunami hazard mitigation: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). In the 7 years of the program it has, 1. established a tsunami forecasting capability for the two tsunami warning centers through the combined use of deep ocean tsunami data and numerical models; 2. upgraded the seismic network enabling the tsunami warning centers to locate and size earthquakes faster and more accurately; 3. produced 22 tsunami inundation maps covering 113 coastal communities with a population at risk of over a million people; 4. initiated a program to develop tsunami-resilient communities through awareness, education, warning dissemination, mitigation incentives, coastal planning, and construction guidelines; 5. conducted surveys that indicate a positive impact of the programs activities in raising tsunami awareness. A 17-member Steering Group consisting of representatives from the five Pacific States, NOAA, FEMA, USGS, and the National Science Foundation (NSF) guides NTHMP. The success of the program has been the result of a personal commitment by steering group members that has leveraged the total Federal funding by contributions from the States and Federal Agencies at a ratio of over six matching dollars to every NTHMP dollar. Twice yearly meetings of the steering group promote communication between scientists and emergency managers, and among the State and Federal agencies. From its initiation NTHMP has been based on the needs of coastal communities and emergency managers and has been results driven because of the cycle of year-to-year funding for the first 5 years. A major impact of the program occurred on 17 November 2003, when an Alaskan tsunami warning was canceled because real-time, deep ocean tsunami data indicated the tsunami would be non-damaging. Canceling this warning averted an evacuation in Hawaii, avoiding a loss in productivity valued at $68M.     

Comparison of Static,Kinematic and Dynamic Geodetic Deformation Models for Kutlugün Landslide in Northeastern Turkey

Being the cause of the loss of life and damaging property, landslide is an important natural hazard. Therefore, landslides have to be monitored and preventive measures taken accordingly. In Geodesy, landslides can be determined with static, kinematic and dynamic geodetic models. The aim of this study is to develop a dynamic geodetic model for landslides and compare it with static and kinematic geodetic models. A study area was selected in the Northeastern Black Sea Region of Turkey where landslides are the most effective natural hazard. Movements were determined with static, kinematic and dynamic geodetic models using geodetic, geologic and geophysical measurements made in the study area. Groundwater levels changes were regarded as causative forces in the formulation of the dynamic model. The dynamic model delivered more detailed information (direction, values, velocity, acceleration of movements) about landslide movements. It is possible to formulate more realistic strategies about prevention of landslides by using this information. As a result, it can be suggested that dynamic geodetic models are more useful in landslide studies.     

Modified precise time step integration method of structural dynamic analysis

The precise time step integration method proposed for linear time-invariant homogeneous dynamic systems can provide precise numerical results that approach an exact solution at the integration points. However, difficulty arises when the algorithm is used for non-homogeneous dynamic systems, due to the inverse matrix calculation and the simulation accuracy of the applied loading. By combining the Gaussian quadrature method and state space theory with the calculation technique of matrix exponential function in the precise time step integration method, a new modified precise time step integration method （e.g., an algorithm with an arbitrary order of accuracy） is proposed. In the new method, no inverse matrix calculation or simulation of the applied loading is needed, and the computing efficiency is improved. In particular, the proposed method is independent of the quality of the matrix H. If the matrix H is singular or nearly singular, the advantage of the method is remarkable. The numerical stability of the proposed algorithm is discussed and a numerical example is given to demonstrate the validity and efficiency of the algorithm.     

Probabilistic seismic response and reliability assessment of isolated bridges

Bridge seismic isolation strategy is based on the reduction of shear forces transmitted from the superstructure to the piers by two means: shifting natural period and earthquake input energy reduction by dissipation concentrated in protection devices. In this paper, a stochastic analysis of a simple isolated bridge model for different bridge and device parameters is conducted to assess the efficiency of this seismic protection strategy. To achieve this aim, a simple nonlinear softening constitutive law is adopted to model a wide range of isolation devices, characterized by only three essential mechanical parameters. As a consequence of the random nature of seismic motion, a probabilistic analysis is carried out and the time modulated Kanai-Tajimi stochastic process is adopted to represent the seismic action. The response covariance in the state space is obtained by solving the Lyapunov equation for a stochastic linearized system. After a sensitivity analysis, the failure probability referred to extreme displacement and the mean value of dissipated energy are assessed by using the introduced stochastic indices of seismic bridge protection efficiency. A parametric analysis for protective devices with different mechanical parameters is developed for a proper selection of parameters of isolation devices under different situations.     

Centrifuge modeling of PGD response of buried pipe

A new centrifuge based method for determining the response of continuous buried pipe to PGD is presented. The physical characteristics of the RPI‘s 100 g-ton geotechnical centrifuge and the current lifeline experiment split-box are described: The split-box contains the model pipeline and surrounding soil and is manufactured such that half can be offset, in flight, simulating PGD. In addition, governing similitude relations which allow one to determine the physical characteristics, (diameter, wall thickness and material modulus of elasticity) of the model pipeline are presented. Finally, recorded strains induced in two buried pipes with prototype diameters of 0.63 m and 0.95 m (24 and 36 inch) subject to 0.6 and 2.0 meters (2 and 6 feet) of full scale fault offsets and presented and compared to corresponding FE results.     

Measurement of six degree-of-freedom ground motion by using eight accelerometers

A new integrated measuring system with eight force-balance accelerometers is proposed to obtain a direct measurement of six degree-of freedom （DOF） ground motions, including three rotational and three actual translational acceleration components without gyroscopes. In the proposed measuring system, the relationship between the output from eight force-balance accelerometer and the six DOF motion of the measuring system under an earthquake are described by differential equations. These equations are derived from the positions and directions of the eight force-balance accelerometers in the measuring system. The third-order Runge-Kutta algorithm is used to guarantee the accuracy of the numerical calculation. All the algorithms used to compute the six DOF components of the ground motion are implemented in a real-time in Digital Signal Processor （DSP）. The distortion of the measured results caused by position and direction errors of the accelerometers in the measuring system are reduced by multiplying a compensation coefficient C to the output and subtracting static zero drift from the measured results, respectively.     

Geochemical characteristics of crustal anatexis during the formation of migmatite at the Southern Sierra Nevada,California

We provide data on the geochemical and isotopic consequences of nonmodal partial melting of a thick Jurassic pelite unit at mid-crustal levels that produced a migmatite complex in conjunction with the intrusion of part of the southern Sierra Nevada batholith at ca. 100 Ma. Field relations suggest that this pelitic migmatite formed and then abruptly solidified prior to substantial mobilization and escape of its melt products. Hence, this area yields insights into potential mid-crustal level contributions of crustal components into Cordilleran-type batholiths. Major and trace-element analyses in addition to field and petrographic data demonstrate that leucosomes are products of partial melting of the pelitic protolith host. Compared with the metapelites, leucosomes have higher Sr and lower Sm concentrations and lower Rb/Sr ratios. The initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of leucosomes range from 0.7124 to 0.7247, similar to those of the metapelite protoliths (0.7125–0.7221). However, the leucosomes have a much wider range of initial ε_Nd values, which range from −6.0 to −11.0, as compared to −8.7 to −11.3 for the metapelites. Sr and Nd isotopic compositions of the leucosomes, migmatites, and metapelites suggest disequilibrium partial melting of the metapelite protolith. Based on their Sr, Nd, and other trace-element characteristics, two groups of leucosomes have been identified. Group A leucosomes have relatively high Rb, Pb, Ba, and K₂O contents, Rb/Sr ratios (0.15<Rb/Sr<1.0), and initial ε_Nd values. Group B leucosomes have relatively low Rb, Pb, Ba, and K₂O contents, Rb/Sr ratios (<0.15), and initial ε_Nd values. The low Rb concentrations and Rb/Sr ratios of the group B leucosomes together suggest that partial melting was dominated by water-saturated or H₂O-fluxed melting of quartz + feldspar assemblage with minor involvement of muscovite. Breakdown of quartz and plagioclase with minor contributions from muscovite resulted in low Rb/Sr ratios characterizing both group A and group B leucosomes. In contrast, group A leucosomes have greater contributions from K-feldspar, which is suggested by: (1) their relatively high K concentrations, (2) positive or slightly negative Eu anomalies, and (3) correlation of their Pb and Ba concentrations with K₂O contents. It is also shown that accessory minerals have played a critical role in regulating the partitioning of key trace elements such as Sm, Nd, Nb, and V between melt products and residues during migmatization. The various degrees of parent/daughter fractionations in the Rb–Sr and Sm–Nd isotopic systems as a consequence of nonmodal crustal anatexis would render melt products with distinct isotopic signatures, which could profoundly influence the products of subsequent mixing events. This is not only important for geochemical patterns of intracrustal differentiation, but also a potentially important process in generating crustal-scale as well as individual pluton-scale isotopic heterogeneities.