A debris-flow alarm system for the Alpine Illgraben catchment: design and performance

We describe the development, implementation, and first analyses of the performance of a debris-flow warning system for the Illgraben catchment and debris fan area. The Illgraben catchment (9.5 km²), located in the Canton of Valais, Switzerland, in the Rhone River valley, is characterized by frequent and voluminous sediment transport and debris-flow activity, and is one of the most active debris-flow catchments in the Alps. It is the site of an instrumented debris-flow observation station in operation since the year 2000. The residents in Susten (municipality Leuk), tourists, and other land users, are exposed to a significant hazard. The warning system consists of four modules: community organizational planning (hazard awareness and preparedness), event detection and alerting, geomorphic catchment observation, and applied research to facilitate the development of an early warning system based on weather forecasting. The system presently provides automated alert signals near the active channel prior to (5–15 min) the arrival of a debris flow or flash flood at the uppermost frequently used channel crossing. It is intended to provide data to support decision-making for warning and evacuation, especially when unusually large debris flows are expected to leave the channel near populated areas. First-year results of the detection and alert module in comparison with the data from the independent debris-flow observation station are generally favorable. Twenty automated alerts (alarms) were issued, which triggered flashing lights and sirens at all major footpaths crossing the channel bed, for three debris flows and 16 flood flows. Only one false alarm was issued. The major difficulty we encountered is related to the variability and complexity of the events (e.g., events consisting of multiple surges) and can be largely solved by increasing the duration of the alarm. All of the alarms for hazardous events were produced by storms with a rainfall duration and intensity larger than the threshold for debris-flow activity that was defined in an earlier study, supporting our intention to investigate the use of rainfall forecasts to increase the time available for warning and implementation of active countermeasures.     

Heterogeneous timing of freshwater input into Kobbefjord,a low-arctic fjord in Greenland

The majority of freshwater input from Greenland to the global ocean stems from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Currently, almost a quarter of the freshwater flowing from Greenland is derived from catchments that are disconnected from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Despite their importance to the total freshwater flux and influence on fjord geochemistry, there is relatively little monitoring data available for those catchments and therefore the drivers of regional differences in export are largely unknown. We present a dataset of 12 years of discharge of four catchments less than 15 km apart, that are different in size (between 7 and 32 km²), local glacier coverage (4%–11%) and lake cover (0%–5%). They all drain into Kobbefjord, a well-studied fjord in West Greenland, near Greenland's capital Nuuk. Between catchments, the magnitude of discharge varies at annual, seasonal and sub-daily timescales, due to differences in physical catchment properties as well as local climate variability. We find that annual specific discharges vary greatly (between 1.2 and 1.9 m/year on a 12-year average) due to a longitudinal precipitation gradient from West to East caused by different amount of orographic precipitation shading. The seasonal cycle of discharge (amplitude, timing and minimum flow) differs among the sites mainly due to different exposure to solar radiation as a driver for major snowmelt; the small ice coverage in the catchments plays only a minor role in discharge variability. Dry years generally increase the relative differences in annual specific discharge and no significant temporal trends have been found in the studied catchments. On a sub-daily timescale, the difference in timing of maximum discharge during fair-weather days (>80% maximum solar radiation and no precipitation) ranged between 7 and 12 h, which is attributed to differences between the presence and elevation of lakes among the catchments. The response of discharge to major precipitation events is discussed, where a delay of between 5 and 7 h is found for the catchments that do not contain lakes near the gauge.     

Sources and variability of CO2 in a prealpine stream gravel bar

Gravel bars (GBs) contribute to carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from stream corridors, with CO₂ concentrations and emissions dependent on prevailing hydraulic, biochemical, and physicochemical conditions. We investigated CO₂ concentrations and fluxes across a GB in a prealpine stream over three different discharge‐temperature conditions. By combining field data with a reactive transport groundwater model, we were able to differentiate the most relevant hydrological and biogeochemical processes contributing to CO₂ dynamics. GB CO₂ concentrations showed significant spatial and temporal variability and were highest under the lowest flow and highest temperature conditions. Further, observed GB surface CO₂ evasion fluxes, measured CO₂ concentrations, and modelled aerobic respiration were highest at the tail of the GB over all conditions. Modelled CO₂ transport via streamwater downwelling contributed the largest fraction of the measured GB CO₂ concentrations (31% to 48%). This contribution increased its relative share at higher discharges as a result of a decrease in other sources. Also, it decreased from the GB head to tail across all discharge‐temperature conditions. Aerobic respiration accounted for 17% to 36% of measured surface CO₂ concentrations. Zoobenthic respiration was estimated to contribute between 4% and 8%, and direct groundwater CO₂ inputs 1% to 23%. Unexplained residuals accounted for 6% to 37% of the observed CO₂ concentrations at the GB surface. Overall, we highlight the dynamic role of subsurface aerobic respiration as a driver of spatial and temporal variability of CO₂ concentrations and evasion fluxes from a GB. As hydrological regimes in prealpine streams are predicted to change following climatic change, we propose that warming temperatures combined with extended periods of low flow will lead to increased CO₂ release via enhanced aerobic respiration in newly exposed GBs in prealpine stream corridors.     

Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of regional climate models and its impact on the climate change signal

Realizing the error characteristics of regional climate models (RCMs) and the consequent limitations in their direct utilization in climate change impact research, this study analyzes a quantile-based empirical-statistical error correction method (quantile mapping, QM) for RCMs in the context of climate change. In particular the success of QM in mitigating systematic RCM errors, its ability to generate “new extremes” (values outside the calibration range), and its impact on the climate change signal (CCS) are investigated. In a cross-validation framework based on a RCM control simulation over Europe, QM reduces the bias of daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature, precipitation amount, and derived indices of extremes by about one order of magnitude and strongly improves the shapes of the related frequency distributions. In addition, a simple extrapolation of the error correction function enables QM to reproduce “new extremes” without deterioration and mostly with improvement of the original RCM quality. QM only moderately modifies the CCS of the corrected parameters. The changes are related to trends in the scenarios and magnitude-dependent error characteristics. Additionally, QM has a large impact on CCSs of non-linearly derived indices of extremes, such as threshold indices.     

A stabilized assumed deformation gradient finite element formulation for strongly coupled poromechanical simulations at finite strain

An adaptively stabilized finite element scheme is proposed for a strongly coupled hydro‐mechanical problem in fluid‐infiltrating porous solids at finite strain. We first present the derivation of the poromechanics model via mixture theory in large deformation. By exploiting assumed deformation gradient techniques, we develop a numerical procedure capable of simultaneously curing the multiple‐locking phenomena related to shear failure, incompressibility imposed by pore fluid, and/or incompressible solid skeleton and produce solutions that satisfy the inf‐sup condition. The template‐based generic programming and automatic differentiation (AD) techniques used to implement the stabilized model are also highlighted. Finally, numerical examples are given to show the versatility and efficiency of this model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change and the resilient society: utopia or realistic option for German regions?

For the last five years, climate change has been increasingly perceived as a challenge for regional development. Compared to other nations, Germany is relatively ‘safe’, but the German regions are prone to different impacts of climate change; some of them might be positive but most will be negative in the long run. Strategic concepts are therefore needed to reduce the negative impacts and use the potential positive effects. Due to enforced research funding, several German regions are currently developing adaptation strategies within transdisciplinary research projects. Based on a comparative case study analysis of three of these projects, this paper looks for the benefits of resilience thinking in the context of climate change adaptation. The analysis shows that the case study regions try to increase their resilience to climate change by strengthening the properties of (1) resistance, (2) recovery and (3) creativity. But the discussion also reveals that only parts, certain sectors or subjects, of the region can increase their distinct resilience. Regional stakeholder networks as established within the case study regions can make a significant contribution to linking different sectors and levels of action. Therefore, this approach seems to be applicable for integrating the need for adaptation within the whole region. It is believed that the regionalized communication of potential climate change impacts raises awareness for climate change adaptation, helps to develop appropriate adaptation measures and encourages action. Hence, different approaches can indeed lead to more resilient structures. But the resilient society at regional level remains utopia.     

Percolation and Particle Transport in the Unsaturated Zone of a Karst Aquifer

Recharge and contamination of karst aquifers often occur via the unsaturated zone, but the functioning of this zone has not yet been fully understood. Therefore, irrigation and tracer experiments, along with monitoring of rainfall events, were used to examine water percolation and the transport of solutes, particles, and fecal bacteria between the land surface and a water outlet into a shallow cave. Monitored parameters included discharge, electrical conductivity, temperature, organic carbon, turbidity, particle-size distribution (PSD), fecal indicator bacteria, chloride, bromide, and uranine. Percolation following rainfall or irrigation can be subdivided into a lag phase (no response at the outlet), a piston-flow phase (release of epikarst storage water by pressure transfer), and a mixed-flow phase (increasing contribution of freshly infiltrated water), starting between 20 min and a few hours after the start of recharge event. Concerning particle and bacteria transport, results demonstrate that (1) a first turbidity signal occurs during increasing discharge due to remobilization of particles from fractures (pulse-through turbidity); (2) a second turbidity signal is caused by direct particle transfer from the soil (flow-through turbidity), often accompanied by high levels of fecal indicator bacteria, up to 17,000 Escherichia coli /100 mL; and (3) PSD allows differentiation between the two types of turbidity. A relative increase of fine particles (0.9 to 1.5 μm) coincides with microbial contamination. These findings help quantify water storage and percolation in the epikarst and better understand contaminant transport and attenuation. The use of PSD as "early-warning parameter" for microbial contamination in karst water is confirmed.     

Climate change effects on landslides along the southwest coast of British Columbia

Antecedent rainfall and short-term intense rainfall both contribute to the temporal occurrence of landslides in British Columbia. These two quantities can be extracted from the precipitation regimes simulated by climate models. This makes such models an attractive tool for use in the investigation of the effect of global warming on landslide frequencies.In order to provide some measure of the reliability of models used to address the landslide question, the present-day simulation of the antecedent precipitation and short-term rainfall using the daily data from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis model (CGCM) is compared to observations along the south coast of British Columbia. This evaluation showed that the model was reasonably successful in simulating statistics of the antecedent rainfall but was less successful in simulating the short-term rainfall.The monthly mean precipitation data from an ensemble of 19 of the world's global climate models were available to study potential changes in landslide frequencies with global warming. Most of the models were used to produce simulations with three scenarios with different levels of prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations during the twenty-first century. The changes in the antecedent precipitation were computed from the resulting monthly and seasonal means. In order to deal with models' suspected difficulties in simulating the short-term precipitation and lack of daily data, a statistical procedure was used to relate the short-term precipitation to the monthly means.The qualitative model results agree reasonably well, and when averaged over all models and the three scenarios, the change in the antecedent precipitation is predicted to be about 10% and the change in the short-term precipitation about 6%. Because the antecedent precipitation and the short-term precipitation contribute to the occurrence of landslides, the results of this study support the prediction of increased landslide frequency along the British Columbia south coast during the twenty-first century.     

Dimensions of the Late Cretaceous-Paleocene Northeast Atlantic rift derived from Cenozoic subsidence

The distribution of Cenozoic subsidence across Northeast Atlantic volcanic margins have been evaluated to define the width of the rift zone and magnitude of extensional deformation. The subsidence profiles are corrected for the effects of lower-crustal magmatic bodies emplaced during continental break-up. The dimensions of the bodies have been derived from the crustal velocity structure. The width of the Late Cretaceous-Paleocene Northeast Atlantic rift zone was more than 300 km, and the lithospheric extension factor increases gradually towards the line of continental separation. A large number of high-quality seismic reflection data tied to scientific and commercial wells reveals that the initiation of extensional deformation preceded continental separation by ˜ 18 m.y. on the Vøring margin, off Norway. These results show that the Northeast Atlantic volcanic margins, commonly considered as typical volcanic margins indeed, have similar dimensions as non-volcanic margins, and as continental rifts. Thus, these margins contrast significantly with previously suggested evolutionary models based on narrow rift zones and formation during rapid lithospheric failure. The wide rift is compatible with volume of igneous rocks observed along these margins, and with a thermal anomaly similar to that associated with production of Northeast Atlantic oceanic lithosphere.