ARIMA forecasting of ambient air pollutants (O3, NO, NO2 and CO)

In the present study, a stationary stochastic ARMA/ARIMA [Autoregressive Moving (Integrated) Average] modelling approach has been adapted to forecast daily mean ambient air pollutants (O₃, CO, NO and NO₂) concentration at an urban traffic site (ITO) of Delhi, India. Suitable variance stabilizing transformation has been applied to each time series in order to make them covariance stationary in a consistent way. A combination of different information-criterions, namely, AIC (Akaike Information Criterion), HIC (Hannon–Quinn Information Criterion), BIC (Bayesian Information criterion), and FPE (Final Prediction Error) in addition to ACF (autocorrelation function) and PACF (partial autocorrelation function) inspection, has been tried out to obtain suitable orders of autoregressive (p) and moving average (q) parameters for the ARMA(p,q)/ARIMA(p,d,q) models. Forecasting performance of the selected ARMA(p,q)/ARIMA(p,d,q) models has been evaluated on the basis of MAPE (mean absolute percentage error), MAE (mean absolute error) and RMSE (root mean square error) indicators. For 20 out of sample forecasts, one step (i.e., one day) ahead MAPE for CO, NO₂, NO and O₃, have been found to be 13.6, 12.1, 21.8 and 24.1%, respectively. Given the stochastic nature of air pollutants data and in the light of earlier reported studies regarding air pollutants forecasts, the forecasting performance of the present approach is satisfactory and the suggested forecasting procedure can be effectively utilized for short term air quality forewarning purposes.     

Estimation of Sediment Yield and Selection of Suitable Sites for Soil Conservation Measures in Ahar River Basin of Udaipur,Rajasthan using RS and GIS Techniques

The present study aimed at quantification of sediment yield for Ahar River basin of Udaipur district in Rajasthan, India by a regional empirical model using RS and GIS techniques. The land use/land cover (LULC) map of the study area was prepared by supervised classification using satellite imagery of IRS-P6 LISS III. Overall accuracy of the prepared LULC map was 90.78%. The major portion of the study area (49%) is covered with rangeland. Slope map for the study area was developed using digital elevation model. The slope in most of the study area (40% of the total area) ranges from 1% to 4%. In addition, drainage density map of the study area was generated on micro-watershed basis. The study area is covered by a dendritic pattern of drainage which shows that rocks in the area are homogeneous and uniformly resistant to water flow. The drainage density in the study area is 1.11 km km⁻². Annual sediment yield of the study area was quantified by Garde model. The mean annual runoff and sediment yield for the area was 37.58 million m³ and 8,760 m³/year, respectively. Finally, appropriate sites for construction of soil conservation measures are suggested using Boolean logic analysis method on combined slope and drainage maps.     

A review of cyclone track shifts over the Great Lakes of North America: implications for storm surges

Natural Hazards - Cyclone tracks over the Great Lakes of North America shift, both East–West as well as North–South. The reasons for the shifts are various small-scale as well as...     

Validation of a new meteorological forcing data in analysis of spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in India

During the past two decades, numerous datasets have been developed for global/regional hydrological assessment and modeling, but these datasets often show differences in their spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation, which is one of the most critical input variables in global/regional hydrological modeling. This paper is aimed to explore the precipitation characteristics of the Water and Global Change (WATCH) forcing data (WFD) and compare these with the corresponding characteristics derived from satellite-gauge data (TRMM 3B42 and GPCP 1DD) and rain gauge data. It compared the consistency and difference between the WFD and satellite-gauge data in India and examined whether the pattern of seasonal (winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon) precipitation over six regions [e.g. North Mountainous India (NMI), Northwest India (NWI), North Central India (NCI), West Peninsular India (WPI), East Peninsular India (EPI) and South Peninsular India (SPI)] of India agrees well for the gridded data to be useful in precipitation variability analyses. The multi-time scale of precipitation in India was analysed by wavelet transformation method using gauged and WFD precipitation data. In general, precipitation from WFD is larger than that from satellite-gauge data in NMI and Western Ghats region whereas it is smaller in the dry region of NWI. Both WFD and satellite-gauge datasets underestimate precipitation compared to the measured data but the precipitation from WFD is better estimated than that from satellite-gauge data. It was found that the wavelet power spectrum of precipitation based on WFD is reasonably close to that of measured precipitation in NWI and NCI, while slightly different in NMI. It is felt that the WFD data can be used as a potential dataset for hydrological study in India.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of urban growth in selected small,medium and large Indian cities

This study attempts to ascertain the spatial and temporal variations in the evolution of Indian cities using multi-date remote sensing data. A two-stage object-based nearest neighbour classification approach with hierarchical segmentation was used to extract built-up area in selected small, medium and large cities, whereas object-based temporal inversion was applied for change analysis. The temporal trend of net population density, degree of scattered development and compactness of urban core in each city was determined using the built-up area. The study observed a declining trend in growth rate of built-up area in small and medium sized-cities, in contrast to large cities. However, the net population density in cities of all types is decreasing as urban growth has outpaced the corresponding population growth. Furthermore, small and medium cities indicated greater tendency for scattered development in comparison to large cities, whereas the core urban areas of the later appeared relatively less compact.     

Dynamic soil properties and seismic ground response analysis for North Indian seismic belt subjected to the great Himalayan earthquakes

The paper highlights the importance of using site-specific shear modulus reduction (G/G_max versus shear strain, γ) curves and damping ratio (D versus shear strain, γ) curves for ground response analysis. In order to develop comprehensive G/G_max–γ and D–γ curves (i.e. over a wide range of strain level), two types of apparatus, viz. resonant column and cyclic simple shear, have been used. The case study considered the geological deposits from the river beds of Yamuna River originating from the Himalayan seismic zone of North India. The tests results have been analysed to develop G/G_max–γ and D–γ curves and compared with standard curves. It has been observed that upper and lower boundaries for the standard curves are remarkably different for the geological deposit under consideration. In order to assess the impact of using standard curves rather than site-specific curves, ground response analysis has been carried out at five sites along the Yamuna River using two types of curves (standard and site-specific developed in this study). The study showed that the amplification of shear waves at these sites based on the experimentally derived curves is much higher as compared to the standard curves. The proposed curves better represent dynamic behaviour of the soil deposits of the region and will provide a realistic response as far as practically possible, for the structures constructed in the states of Haryana and Delhi and nearby areas. It is anticipated that the data presented in this paper will have wide application and usage.

     

Response of subsurface waters in the eastern Arabian Sea to tropical cyclones

Thermister chain data at different depths for June 1998 cyclone in the Arabian Sea at a location (69.2 E,15.5 N) which is about 60 km to the left of the cyclone track indicates subsurface warming below 60 m and inertial oscillations of temperature with a periodicity of about 2 days. The oscillations continued for ∼15 days even after the cyclone crossed the coast. The analysis of the buoy, DS1 located at the same position also suggests a stabilized southward flow after about two weeks of the cyclone crossed the coast. Analysis of the buoy data for May 1999 cyclone in the same region also indicates similar pattern. In order to investigate the effect of cyclone–ocean interaction and primarily to understand the process for the subsurface warming, 3-dimensional Princeton Ocean Model is configured for the eastern part of the Arabian Sea. The model uses high horizontal resolution of about 6 km near the coast and a terrain following sigma coordinate in the vertical with 26 levels. The study focuses on surface cooling and temperature rise in the underlying waters and explains its mechanism through upwelling and downwelling respectively. The simulations in concurrence with the observations suggest that the occurrence of subsurface warming precedes the surface cooling with a lag of ˜a day as the cyclone advances DS1. The simulations also demonstrate local temperature stratification plays an important role for cooling of the upper ocean and warming of the subsurface waters and extent of warming is directly related to the depth of the thermocline.     

Study of temporal and spectral characteristics of the X-ray emission from solar flares

Temporal and spectral characteristics of X-ray emission from 60 flares of intensity ≥C class observed by the Solar X-ray Spectrometer(SOXS) during 2003–2011 are presented. We analyze the X-ray emission observed in four and three energy bands by the Si and Cadmium-Zinc-Telluride(CZT)detectors, respectively. The number of peaks in the intensity profile of the flares varies between 1 and 3. We find moderate correlation(R ≈0.2) between the rise time and the peak flux of the first peak of the flare irrespective of energy band, which is indicative of its energy-independent nature. Moreover, the magnetic field complexity of the flaring region is found to be highly anti-correlated(R = 0.61) with the rise time of the flares while positively correlated(R = 0.28) with the peak flux of the flare. The time delay between the peak of the X-ray emission in a given energy band and that in 25–30 keV decreases with increasing energy, suggesting conduction cooling is dominant in the lower energies. Analysis of 340 spectra from 14 flares reveals that the peak of differential emission measure(DEM) evolution is delayed by 60–360 s relative to that of the temperature, and this time delay is inversely proportional to the peak flux of the flare. We conclude that temporal and intensity characteristics of flares are dependent on energy as well as the magnetic field configuration of the active region.     

Adsorption of cadmium on riverine sediments: quantitative treatment of the large particles

The effects of solution pH, sediment dose, contact time, and particle size on the adsorption of cadmium ions on bed sediments have been studied for a highly polluted river in western Uttar Pradesh, India. The role of the coarser sediment and the clay and silt fractions has been examined. The optimum contact time needed to reach equilibrium is of the order of 30 and 60 min for 0–75 μm and 210–250 μm sediment size, respectively. The extent of cadmium adsorption increases with increasing pH and adsorbent doses and decreases with adsorbent particle size. The important geochemical phases, iron and manganese oxide, provide the active support material for the adsorption of cadmium. The competitive experiments conducted in the presence of lead and zinc ions indicate that both the ions suppress the ability of cadmium to adsorb on to sediments. The Langmuir and Freundlich adsorption models were used to determine the mechanistic parameters associated with the adsorption process. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.