PROMETHEE II and fuzzy AHP: an enhanced GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping

This paper describes the application of a well-known multi-criteria decision-making technique, called preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE II), in combination with fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP), as a weighting technique to explore landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM). To this end, eight landslide-related geodata layers of the Minoo Dasht located in the Gorgan province of Iran, involving slope, aspect, distance to river, drainage density, distance to fault, mean annual rainfall, distance to road and lithology have been integrated using the PROMETHEE II enhanced by FAHP technique. Afterward, the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves for the proposed LSM were drawn using an inventory of landslides containing 83 recent and historic landslide points, and the area under curve = 0.752 value was calculated accordingly. Additionally, to further verify the practicality of such susceptibility map, it was also evaluated against the landslide inventory using simple overlay. The outcome was that about 11 % of the occurred landslide points fall into the very high susceptibility class of the LSM, but approximately 52 % of them indeed fall into the high and very high susceptibility zones together. Also, it resulted that no recorded landslide occurred in the zone of very low susceptibility. According to the results of the ROC curves analysis and simple overlay evaluation, the produced map has exhibited good performance.     

Impact demagnetization of the martian crust

The lack of magnetic anomalies within the giant martian impact basins, Hellas, Argyre, and Isidis suggests that the impacts demagnetized the crust. Our analysis of the magnetic anomaly intensity shows that the interior parts of the basins are completely demagnetized, while the outer parts and surroundings are partially demagnetized. We investigate the shock pressure and impact heating resulting from the impacts. The crust has been completely demagnetized within ∼0.8 basin radius by a combination of thermal and shock effects, and the surroundings have been partially demagnetized by shock to a distance of at least 1.4 radii. We also investigate magnetic signatures of intermediate-size craters. From the pressures generated by both the large and intermediate-sized impacts, we conclude that the remanent magnetization is carried at least in part by high coercivity rocks. Since the crust beneath the basins does not appear to have been remagnetized as it cooled following the impacts, we conclude that the martian core dynamo was inactive or very weak for at least 100 Myr following the Hellas impact.     

Spatial modeling of groundwater quality based on using Schoeller diagram in GIS base: a case study of Khorramabad,Iran

Regulating the water supply for a specified district needs comprehensive quality information about the nearest aquifer. There are many methods to investigate the water quality, but in most cases, they involve time series study and do not consider space dimension. The application of advanced qualitative assessments such as geographical information systems (GIS) could be a reasonable choice. In addition, the classic Schoeller diagram (CSD) is one of the diverse drinking water assessments in which aquifer quality is distinguished according to major ions concentrations. However, the results of this diagram are limited to one point, and there is no possibility of qualitative classification of the surrounding area. Because of this, in this investigation, a new procedure, called the Schoeller-GIS (S-GIS) approach, is presented in order to apply CSD onto a district through GIS tools. For this project, the quality information of 105 wells in the study area (near Khorramabad, Iran) has been collected, and a quality assessment of the aquifer has been conducted based on both classic and novel approaches. Results indicated that, according to the CSD method, all qualitative parameters of the aquifer except Ca and Mg were located within the Good range, whereas the results of S-GIS approach categorized the study area into Good (55%), Permissible (36%), and Moderately suitable (8%). This indicates that the latest method may be more accurate by about 30% which could lead to more efficient management of water resources.     

Salt tectonics in a double salt‐source layer setting (Eastern Persian Gulf,Iran): Insights from interpretation of seismic profiles and sequential cross‐section restoration

Salt tectonics in the Eastern Persian Gulf (Iran) is linked to a unique salt‐bearing system involving two overlapping ‘autochthonous’ mobile source layers, the Ediacaran–Early Cambrian Hormuz Salt and the Late Oligocene–Early Miocene Fars Salt. Interpretations of reflection seismic profiles and sequential cross‐section restorations are presented to decipher the evolution of salt structures from the two source layers and their kinematic interaction on the style of salt flow. Seismic interpretations illustrate that the Hormuz and Fars salts started flowing in the Early Palaeozoic (likely Cambrian) and Early Miocene, respectively, shortly after their deposition. Differential sedimentary loading (downbuilding) and subsalt basement faults initiated and localized the flow of the Hormuz Salt and the related salt structures. The resultant diapirs grew by passive diapirism until Late Cretaceous, whereas the pillows became inactive during the Mesozoic after a progressive decline of growth in the Late Palaeozoic. The diapirs and pillows were then subjected to a Palaeocene–Eocene contractional deformation event, which squeezed the diapirs. The consequence was significant salt extrusion, leading to the development of allochthonous salt sheets and wings. Subsequent rise of the Hormuz Salt occurred in wider salt stocks and secondary salt walls by coeval passive diapirism and tectonic shortening since Late Oligocene. Evacuation and diapirism of the Fars Salt was driven mainly by differential sedimentary loading in annular and elongate minibasins overlying the salt and locally by downslope gliding around pre‐existing stocks of the Hormuz Salt. At earlier stages, the Fars Salt flowed not only towards the pre‐existing Hormuz stocks but also away from them to initiate ring‐like salt walls and anticlines around some of the stocks. Subsequently, once primary welds developed around these stocks, the Fars Salt flowed outwards to source the peripheral salt walls. Our results reveal that evolving pre‐existing salt structures from an older source layer have triggered the flow of a younger salt layer and controlled the resulting salt structures. This interaction complicates the flow direction of the younger salt layer, the geometry and spatial distribution of its structures, as well as minibasin depocentre migration through time. Even though dealing with a unique case of two ‘autochthonous’ mobile salt layers, this work may also provide constraints on our understanding of the kinematics of salt flow and diapirism in other salt basins having significant ‘allochthonous’ salt that is coevally affected by deformation of the deeper autochthonous salt layer and related structures.     

Issues in Eulerian–Lagrangian modeling of sediment transport under saltation regime

The saltation regime is very important for understanding the sediment transport mechanism. However,there is no consensus on a model for the saltation regime. This study answers several questions raised with respect to the Eulerian-Lagrangian modeling of sediment transport. The first question is why the previous saltation models that use different combinations of hydrodynamic forces yielded acceptable results? The second question is which shear lift model(i.e. a shear lift expression and its coefficient) is more appropriate? Another important question is which hydrodynamic forces have greater contributions to the saltation characteristics of a sediment particle? The last question is what are the contributions of the turbulence fluctuations as well as effects of using two-and three-dimensional(2 D and 3 D) models on the simulation results? In order to fairly answer these questions, a systematic study was done by considering different scenarios. The current study is the first attempt to clearly discuss these issues. A comprehensive 3 D saltation model for non-cohesive sediment was developed that includes all the hydrodynamic forces acting on the particle. The random nature of sediment transport was included using turbulent flow and bed-particle collision models. The eddy interaction model was applied to generate a3 D turbulent flow field. Bed-particle collisions were considered using the concept of a contact zone and a corresponding contact point. The validation of the model was done using the available experimental data for a wide range of sediment size(0.03 to 4.8 cm). For the first question, the results indicated that some of the hydrodynamic effects show opposing trends and some have negligible effects. With these opposing effects it is possible to adjust the coefficients of different models to achieve acceptable agreement with the same experimental data while omitting some aspects of the physics of the process. A suitable model for the shear lift force was developed by linking the lift coefficient to the drag coefficient and the contributions of the hydrodynamic forces and turbulence fluctuations as well as the consequences of using of 2 D and 3 D models were studied. The results indicate that the shear lift force and turbulent flow fluctuations are important factors for the saltation of both sand and gravel, and they cannot be ignored.     

Temporal distribution of earthquakes using renewal process in the Dasht-e-Bayaz region

Temporal distribution of earthquakes with M _w > 6 in the Dasht-e-Bayaz region, eastern Iran has been investigated using time-dependent models. Based on these types of models, it is assumed that the times between consecutive large earthquakes follow a certain statistical distribution. For this purpose, four time-dependent inter-event distributions including the Weibull, Gamma, Lognormal, and the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) are used in this study and the associated parameters are estimated using the method of maximum likelihood estimation. The suitable distribution is selected based on logarithm likelihood function and Bayesian Information Criterion. The probability of the occurrence of the next large earthquake during a specified interval of time was calculated for each model. Then, the concept of conditional probability has been applied to forecast the next major (M _w > 6) earthquake in the site of our interest. The emphasis is on statistical methods which attempt to quantify the probability of an earthquake occurring within a specified time, space, and magnitude windows. According to obtained results, the probability of occurrence of an earthquake with M _w > 6 in the near future is significantly high.     

Could giant impacts cripple core dynamos of small terrestrial planets?

Large impacts not only create giant basins on terrestrial planets but also heat their interior by shock waves. We investigate the impacts that have created the largest basins existing on the planets: Utopia on Mars, Caloris on Mercury, Aitken on Moon, all formed at ∼4 Ga. We determine the impact-induced temperature increases in the interior of a planet using the “foundering” shock heating model of Watters et al. (Watters, W.A., Zuber, M.T., Hager, B.H. [2009]. J. Geophys. Res. 114, E02001. doi:10.1029/2007JE002964). The post-impact thermal evolution of the planet is investigated using 2D axi-symmetric convection in a spherical shell of temperature-dependent viscosity and thermal conductivity, and pressure-dependent thermal expansion. The impact heating creates a superheated giant plume in the upper mantle which ascends rapidly and develops a strong convection in the mantle of the sub-impact hemisphere. The upwelling of the plume rapidly sweeps up the impact-heated base of the mantle away from the core-mantle boundary and replaces it with the colder surrounding material, thus reducing the effects of the impact-heated base of the mantle on the heat flux out of core. However, direct shock heating of the core stratifies the core, suppresses the pre-existing thermal convection, and cripples a pre-existing thermally-driven core dynamo. It takes about 17, 4, and 5 Myr for the stratified cores of Mars, Mercury, and Moon to exhaust impact heat and resume global convection, possibly regenerating core dynamos.     

1D PetroMod software modeling of the Basrah oil fields, Southern Iraq

1D (Petromod) hydrocarbon charge modeling and source rock characterization of the Lower Cretaceous and Upper Jurassic underlying the prolific Cretaceous and Tertiary reservoirs in the Basra oilfields in southern Iraq. The study is based on well data of the Majnoon, West Qurna, Nahr Umr, Zubair, and Rumaila oil fields. Burial histories indicate complete maturation of Upper Jurassic source rocks during the Late Cretaceous to Paleogene followed by very recent (Neogene) maturation of the Low/Mid Cretaceous succession from early to mid-oil window conditions, consistent with the regional Iraq study of Pitman et al. (Geo Arab 9(4):41–72, 2004). These two main phases of hydrocarbon generation are synchronous with the main tectonic events and trap formation associated with Late Cretaceous closure of the neo-Tethys; the onset of continent–continent collision associated with the Zagros orogeny and Neogene opening of the Gulf of Suez/Red Sea. Palynofacies of the Lower Cretaceous Sulaiy and Lower Yamama Formations and of the Upper Jurassic Najmah/Naokelekan confirm their source rock potential, supported by pyrolysis data. To what extent the Upper Jurassic source rocks contributed to charge of the overlying Cretaceous reservoirs remains uncertain because of the Upper Jurassic Gotnia evaporite seal in between. The younger Cretaceous rocks do not contain source rocks nor were they buried deep enough for significant hydrocarbon generation.