Till fabric and grain-size analysis of glacial sequences in the Upper Sil River Basin,Cantabrian Mountains,NW Spain

Fabric and grain-size analysis of eight deposits present in the Upper Sil River Basin palaeoglacial system of northwest Spain were used to interpret till types and to reconstruct the glacial paleoprocess history of this region. They are represented by lodgement, deformation, and melt-out tills. The first, representative of glacial advance stages, present cluster fabrics and are generally composed of poorly sorted and finer sediments. Melt-out and deformation tills, representative of stages of glacial stability followed by fast recession, present transitional to girdle fabrics and are composed of poorly sorted coarser sediments. In any case, multiple criteria, including lithological, clast-shape, or structural data, support these directional and grain-size observations. These sequences, most of them located in the snout area of the Sil palaeoglacier, are important in the reconstruction of glacial dynamics due to poor preservation of landforms related to the maximum glacial advance. This palaeoglacial system was formed by multiple tributaries and had an extension of over 450 km², with the Sil paleoglacier being 51 km long during its maximum glacial advance.     

A geographic approach for combining social media and authoritative data towards identifying useful information for disaster management

In recent years, social media emerged as a potential resource to improve the management of crisis situations such as disasters triggered by natural hazards. Although there is a growing research body concerned with the analysis of the usage of social media during disasters, most previous work has concentrated on using social media as a stand-alone information source, whereas its combination with other information sources holds a still underexplored potential. This article presents an approach to enhance the identification of relevant messages from social media that relies upon the relations between georeferenced social media messages as Volunteered Geographic Information and geographic features of flood phenomena as derived from authoritative data (sensor data, hydrological data and digital elevation models). We apply this approach to examine the micro-blogging text messages of the Twitter platform (tweets) produced during the River Elbe Flood of June 2013 in Germany. This is performed by means of a statistical analysis aimed at identifying general spatial patterns in the occurrence of flood-related tweets that may be associated with proximity to and severity of flood events. The results show that messages near (up to 10 km) to severely flooded areas have a much higher probability of being related to floods. In this manner, we conclude that the geographic approach proposed here provides a reliable quantitative indicator of the usefulness of messages from social media by leveraging the existing knowledge about natural hazards such as floods, thus being valuable for disaster management in both crisis response and preventive monitoring.     

Pass the passport! Geographies of the Rugby World Cup 2011

The Rugby World Cup, held in New Zealand in 2011, was a showcase for a rapidly globalising sport involving competition between twenty national teams, comprising over 600 players. This paper analyses the geography of the players’ team affiliations and reveals patterns of labour mobility that disrupt and render complex concepts and definitions of ‘national’ identity. We see that the dominance of professional rugby, particularly by European clubs, is concentrating player resources and revenue generation in ways that suggest an evolving core–periphery relationship. We suggest that the players themselves exercise agency by finding, manipulating and exploiting cracks and opportunities in the complex regulatory framework of the sport. We build a case for a research agenda that maps out these geographies of rugby and traces their implications for understandings of identity and the political economy of globalising sport.     

Shrinked (1???α) ensemble Kalman filter and α Gaussian mixture filter

State estimation in high dimensional systems remains a challenging part of real time analysis. The ensemble Kalman filter addresses this challenge by using Gaussian approximations constructed from a number of samples. This method has been a large success in many applications. Unfortunately, for some cases, Gaussian approximations are no longer valid, and the filter does not work so well. In this paper, we use the idea of the ensemble Kalman filter together with the more theoretically valid particle filter. We outline a Gaussian mixture approach based on shrinking the predicted samples to overcome sample degeneracy, while maintaining non-Gaussian nature. A tuning parameter determines the degree of shrinkage. The computational cost is similar to the ensemble Kalman filter. We compare several filtering methods on three different cases: a target tracking model, the Lorenz 40 model, and a reservoir simulation example conditional on seismic and electromagnetic data.     

Calibration and application of a continuum damage model on the simulation of stone masonry structures: Gondar church as a case study

The conservation and rehabilitation of monuments is a matter of important investigation, and the need for accurate structural analysis, capable of effectively predicting the structural behaviour of this type of constructions, under static and dynamic loads, is increasing. Currently there are numerous computational methods and tools, supported by different theories and strategies with different levels of complexity, computation time and cost which are available to perform such analyses. A complex analysis is not always synonym of a better result and the choice of a method over another depends mostly on the purpose of the analysis. This work aims at evaluating the capacity of a non linear continuum damage model (Faria et al. in Int J Solids Struct 35(14):1533–1558, 1998), originally developed for concrete structures, to simulate the behaviour of stone masonry structures. In particular, the seismic response of an old stone masonry construction, the Gondar church, is analysed considering different levels of geometrical and material complexity. The verification and calibration procedures use the experimental results from tests performed on stone masonry walls at the Laboratory for Earthquake and Structural Engineering of the Faculty of Engineering of Porto University and from other tests found in the bibliography (Vasconcelos in Experimental investigations on the mechanics of stone masonry: Characterization of granites and behaviour of ancient masonry shear walls. PhD Thesis, Universidade do Minho, Guimar?es, Portugal, 2005). The results are compared, assessing the differences and the importance of using complex tools, such as the continuum damage model, to better simulate and understand the global behaviour of such constructions.     

Establishing the wave climate influence on the morphodynamics of a coastal lagoon inlet

The morphologic changes in estuaries and coastal lagoons are very complex and constitute a challenging task in coastal research. The bathymetric changes result from the combined action of tides, waves, rivers discharge and wind stress in the area of interest. Additionally, an accurate knowledge of the sediment transport is essential to achieve a good morphological characterization. This work establishes the influence of the wave climate on the morphodynamics of the Ria de Aveiro lagoon inlet by analysing the numerical results of the morphodynamic modelling system MORSYS2D. The numerical simulations considered a realistic coupled forcing of tidal currents and waves. The computed sediment fluxes and bathymetric changes are analysed and compared with the erosion and accretion trends obtained from the numerical simulations forced only by tidal currents, in order to establish the wave climate influence. The final bathymetry and the corresponding changes are compared with bathymetric data collected through surveys. It is concluded that: (a) the morphodynamics of the study area is dominated by the wave regime in the lagoon inlet and nearshore areas, while in the inner areas is tidally dominated; and (b) the inclusion of the wave regime forcing constitutes an improvement in order to accurately reproduce the local morphodynamics.     

Tracing offshore low-salinity plumes in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the summer season by use of multispectral remote-sensing data

To trace offshore surface low-salinity water (LSW) in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, a proxy was developed using the surface water beam attenuation coefficient (c _p), and salinity matched with synchronous Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) satellite data from three annual summer cruises (July 1998–August 2000) using a two-step empirical approach. First, a relationship between in-situ salinity and c _p was obtained. Second, in-situ c _p was matched with SeaWiFS radiance ratios of all available blue-to-green wavelengths. Finally, satellite-derived surface salinity was determined directly by combining the two empirical relationships, providing a robust estimate over a range of salinities (26–36). This significantly improves the limited spatial and temporal resolution of surface salinity distribution obtained by shipboard sampling. The resulting correlation is best explained as mixing between low-salinity plume waters and normal salinity Gulf waters. The empirical relationships were used to map satellite-derived salinity using the average of SeaWiFS images during each summer cruise. As expected for summer, spatial patterns of LSW plumes with high c _p, particulate matter (PM), particulate organic carbon (POC), and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) were connected to the mouth of the Mississippi River Delta and extended to the east-southeast. Normal salinity Gulf water with lower c _p, PM, POC, and Chl-a was confined to the shelf and upper slope in the eastern part of the study area, outside the plumes. This proxy approach can be applied throughout the region of shipboard sampling for more detailed coverage and analysis.     

Using a thermal tracer to estimate overland and rill flow velocities

Flow velocity is a basic hydraulic property of surface flows and its precise calculation is necessary for process based hydrological models, such as soil erosion and rill development models, as well as for modelling sediment and solute transport by runoff. This study presents a technique based on infrared thermography to visualize very shallow flows and allow a quantitative measurement of overland flow and rill flow velocities. Laboratory experiments were conducted to compare the traditional dye tracer technique with this new thermal tracer technique by injecting a combined tracer (heated dye) into shallow flowing surface water. The leading edge tracer velocities estimated by means of infrared video and by the usual real imaging video were compared. The results show that thermal tracers can be used to estimate both overland and rill flow velocities, since measurements are similar to those resulting from using dye tracers. The main advantage of using thermography was the higher visibility of the leading edge of the injected tracer compared with the real image videos. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in Portugal

Precipitation indices are commonly used as climate change indicators. Considering four Climate Variability and Predictability-recommended indices, this study assesses possible changes in their spatial patterns over Portugal under future climatic conditions. Precipitation data from the regional climate model Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling–Climate version of the Local Model (CCLM) ensemble simulations with ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 boundary conditions are used for this purpose. For recent–past, medians and probability density functions of the CCLM-based indices are validated against station-based and gridded observational dataset from ENSEMBLES-based (gridded daily precipitation data provided by the European Climate Assessment & Dataset project) indices. It is demonstrated that the model is able to realistically reproduce not only precipitation but also the corresponding extreme indices. Climate change projections for 2071–2100 (A1B and B1 SRES scenarios) reveal significant decreases in total precipitation, particularly in autumn over northwestern and southern Portugal, though changes exhibit distinct local and seasonal patterns and are typically stronger for A1B than for B1. The increase in winter precipitation over northeastern Portugal in A1B is the most important exception to the overall drying trend. Contributions of extreme precipitation events to total precipitation are also expected to increase, mainly in winter and spring over northeastern Portugal. Strong projected increases in the dry spell lengths in autumn and spring are also noteworthy, giving evidence for an extension of the dry season from summer to spring and autumn. Although no coupling analysis is undertaken, these changes are qualitatively related to modifications in the large-scale circulation over the Euro-Atlantic area, more specifically to shifts in the position of the Azores High and associated changes in the large-scale pressure gradient over the area.     

Local and Spatial Joint Frequency Uncertainty and its Application to Rock Mass Characterisation

Stability is a key issue in any mining or tunnelling activity. Joint frequency constitutes an important input into stability analyses. Three techniques are used herein to quantify the local and spatial joint frequency uncertainty, or possible joint frequencies given joint frequency data, at unsampled locations. Rock quality designation is estimated from the predicted joint frequencies. The first method is based on kriging with subsequent Poisson sampling. The second method transforms the data to near-Gaussian variables and uses the turning band method to generate a range of possible joint frequencies. The third method assumes that the data are Poisson distributed and models the log-intensity of these data with a spatially smooth Gaussian prior distribution. Intensities are obtained and Poisson variables are generated to examine the expected joint frequency and associated variability. The joint frequency data is from an iron ore in the northern part of Norway. The methods are tested at unsampled locations and validated at sampled locations. All three methods perform quite well when predicting sampled points. The probability that the joint frequency exceeds 5 joints per metre is also estimated to illustrate a more realistic utilisation. The obtained probability map highlights zones in the ore where stability problems have occurred. It is therefore concluded that the methods work and that more emphasis should have been placed on these kinds of analyses when the mine was planned. By using simulation instead of estimation, it is possible to obtain a clear picture of possible joint frequency values or ranges, i.e. the uncertainty.