Shrinked (1???α) ensemble Kalman filter and α Gaussian mixture filter

State estimation in high dimensional systems remains a challenging part of real time analysis. The ensemble Kalman filter addresses this challenge by using Gaussian approximations constructed from a number of samples. This method has been a large success in many applications. Unfortunately, for some cases, Gaussian approximations are no longer valid, and the filter does not work so well. In this paper, we use the idea of the ensemble Kalman filter together with the more theoretically valid particle filter. We outline a Gaussian mixture approach based on shrinking the predicted samples to overcome sample degeneracy, while maintaining non-Gaussian nature. A tuning parameter determines the degree of shrinkage. The computational cost is similar to the ensemble Kalman filter. We compare several filtering methods on three different cases: a target tracking model, the Lorenz 40 model, and a reservoir simulation example conditional on seismic and electromagnetic data.     

Adsorption of diclofenac on activated carbon and its hypochlorination in the presence of dissolved organic matter

The nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug “diclofenac” is the pharmaceutically active ingredient of several medicines. Since the compound is used in many of its water-soluble salt forms, it is one of the most frequently found pollutants in different parts of the water cycle. Its reaction with sodium hypochlorite was investigated in the presence of humic substances and sandy soil extract at neutral pH at 25 and 250 mg/L initial concentrations. In the lower concentration, the reaction follows a pseudo-first-order kinetics, while at the higher concentration, it is described as the sum of two first-order reactions. These kinetic results, together with the organic chlorine content of the residues, indicated that both chlorination and oxidation took place. The chlorination is significantly faster. The colloids present catalyze the reactions: The clay minerals of soil extract accelerated the chlorination, while the humic acids could work as photocatalysts in the oxidation, while these compounds themselves were chlorinated. The adsorption of diclofenac on activated carbon was enhanced by humic substances, and every isotherm had a breaking point near to 3 mg/L equilibrium concentration (c _e) resulting in two steps. According to the measurements of the zeta potential, the system proved to be relatively stable at this c _e value, but at higher diclofenac concentrations the stability retained only in the presence of the hydrophilic fulvic acid. The results supported the adsorption hypothesis that in the first step the charge transfer interaction while in the second step hydrogen bond formation plays the key role.     

Vulnerability of water resources,vegetation productivity and soil erosion to climate change in Mediterranean watersheds

Climate change is expected to increase temperatures and lower rainfall in Mediterranean regions; however, there is a great degree of uncertainty as to the amount of change. This limits the prediction capacity of models to quantify impacts on water resources, vegetation productivity and erosion. This work circumvents this problem by analysing the sensitivity of these variables to varying degrees of temperature change (increased by up to 6·4 °C), rainfall (reduced by up to 40%) and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (increased by up to 100%). The SWAT watershed model was applied to 18 large watersheds in two contrasting regions of Portugal, one humid and one semi‐arid; incremental changes to climate variables were simulated using a stochastic weather generator. The main results indicate that water runoff, particularly subsurface runoff, is highly sensitive to these climate change trends (down by 80%). The biomass growth of most species showed a declining trend (wheat down by 40%), due to the negative impacts of increasing temperatures, dampened by higher CO₂ concentrations. Mediterranean species, however, showed a positive response to milder degrees of climate change. Changes to erosion depended on the interactions between the decline in surface runoff (driving erosion rates downward) and biomass growth (driving erosion rates upward). For the milder rainfall changes, soil erosion showed a significant increasing trend in wheat fields (up to 150% in the humid watersheds), well above the recovery capacity of the soil. Overall, the results indicate a shift of the humid watersheds to acquire semi‐arid characteristics, such as more irregular river flows and increasingly marginal conditions for agricultural production. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of sub-indicator weighting schemes on the spatial dependence of multidimensional phenomena

Journal of Geographical Systems - The weighting of sub-indicators is widely debated in the composite indicator literature. However, these weighting schemes’ effects on the composite...     

Complex size-dependent habitat associations in potamodromous fish species

Knowledge of the distribution of species life stages at multiple spatial scales is fundamental to both a proper assessment of species management and conservation programmes and the ability to predict the consequences of human disturbances for river systems. The habitat requirements of three native cyprinid species—the Iberian barbel Barbus bocagei Steindachner, the Iberian straight-mouth nase Pseudochondrostoma polylepis (Steindachner), and the Northern straight-mouth nase Pseudochondrostoma duriense (Coelho)—were examined at 174 undisturbed or minimally disturbed sites in 8 river catchments across western Iberia, by modelling occurrence and counts of species life stages at two spatial scales—large (regional) and instream (local)—using hurdle models. All the life stages of the barbel showed a negative association with upstream high-gradient river reaches, whereas juvenile P. duriense favoured such areas. Stream width and openness were negatively related with the occurrence of juvenile and small adult barbel, but not with large adults. Juvenile nase, on the other hand, were found to be mainly confined to fast-flowing habitats with high instream cover and coarser substrata. Advanced life stages of the barbel were mainly associated with the “pure” regional and shared components, whereas the purely local attributes accounted for much of the model variation among nases, in particular juveniles, and juvenile barbel. The results of this study are useful for setting or refining management goals, and highlight the need to separately consider life stages when performing conservation-related studies of species distribution.     

Comparison of sequential extraction and principal component analysis for determination of heavy metal partitioning in sediments: the case of protected Lagoon El Kelbia (Tunisia)

A sequential extraction procedure applied to surface sediments from El Kelbia Lagoon determined the partitioning of Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Sr, V and Zn among evaporites, carbonates, Fe–Mn oxides, organic matter and silicates. To validate the procedure, the sequential extraction results (SER) were compared to principal components analysis (PCA) using major and trace element concentrations and mineralogical quantitative data of surface sediments. SER showed that a part of Sr was highly mobile; Cu, Sr, and Zn and a part of Co and Ni were mobile depending on pH conditions; Cr and V were strongly bound to silicate phases; Co and Ni were partitioned between carbonates, oxides and silicates, and a great part of Ba and Sr were bound to organic matter or sulfides. An agreement was found with PCA in terms of partitioning among minerals for most trace elements. Moreover, the absence of correlation between Ca concentrations and the abundances of calcite, gypsum or dolomite could be explained by an important fraction of Ca bound to organic matter. Also, unexpected negative correlations between abundances of smectite and illite could be explained by a transformation of illite into smectite. Thus, SER and PCA were mostly convergent, which enabled: (1) validation of the extraction procedure used, and (2) refinement of interpretations of the origin and relations between minerals.     

High-Frequency Response of the Atmospheric Electric Potential Gradient Under Strong and Dry Boundary-Layer Convection

The spectral response of atmospheric electric potential gradient gives important information about phenomena affecting this gradient at characteristic time scales ranging from years (e.g., solar modulation) to fractions of a second (e.g., turbulence). While long-term time scales have been exhaustively explored, short-term scales have received less attention. At such frequencies, space-charge transport inside the planetary boundary layer becomes a sizeable contribution to the potential gradient variability. For the first time, co-located (Évora, Portugal) measurements of boundary-layer backscatter profiles and the 100-Hz potential gradient are reported. Five campaign days are analyzed, providing evidence for a relation between high-frequency response of the potential gradient and strong dry convection.     

Local and Spatial Joint Frequency Uncertainty and its Application to Rock Mass Characterisation

Stability is a key issue in any mining or tunnelling activity. Joint frequency constitutes an important input into stability analyses. Three techniques are used herein to quantify the local and spatial joint frequency uncertainty, or possible joint frequencies given joint frequency data, at unsampled locations. Rock quality designation is estimated from the predicted joint frequencies. The first method is based on kriging with subsequent Poisson sampling. The second method transforms the data to near-Gaussian variables and uses the turning band method to generate a range of possible joint frequencies. The third method assumes that the data are Poisson distributed and models the log-intensity of these data with a spatially smooth Gaussian prior distribution. Intensities are obtained and Poisson variables are generated to examine the expected joint frequency and associated variability. The joint frequency data is from an iron ore in the northern part of Norway. The methods are tested at unsampled locations and validated at sampled locations. All three methods perform quite well when predicting sampled points. The probability that the joint frequency exceeds 5 joints per metre is also estimated to illustrate a more realistic utilisation. The obtained probability map highlights zones in the ore where stability problems have occurred. It is therefore concluded that the methods work and that more emphasis should have been placed on these kinds of analyses when the mine was planned. By using simulation instead of estimation, it is possible to obtain a clear picture of possible joint frequency values or ranges, i.e. the uncertainty.