Implications of uncertain future fossil energy resources on bioenergy use and terrestrial carbon emissions

The magnitude and character of the global resource base of fossil fuels is a key determinant of the evolution of the future global energy system and corresponding fossil fuel carbon emissions. What is less well understood is the potential magnitude of impact of the availability of fossil fuels, due to the interaction with biomass energy, on agriculture, land use, ecosystems and therefore carbon emissions from land-use change. This paper explores these links and implications. We show that if oil resources are limited, then the consequently higher price for liquids induces both the use of coal-to-liquids technology deployment, but also enhanced production of bioenergy crops particularly in a business-as-usual scenario. This in turn implies greater pressure to convert unmanaged ecosystems to produce bioenergy, and higher rates of terrestrial carbon emissions from land use.     

Variations in the abundance of fisheries resources and ecosystem structure in the Japan/East Sea

Evidence supports the hypothesis that two climatic regime shifts in the North Pacific and the Japan/East Sea, have affected the dynamics of the marine ecosystem and fisheries resources from 1960 to 2000. Changes in both mixed layer depth (MLD) and primary production were detected in the Japan/East Sea after 1976. The 1976 regime shift appears to have caused the biomass replacement with changes in catch production of major exploited fisheries resources, including Pacific saury, Pacific sardine and filefish. Both fisheries yield and fish distribution are reflected in these decadal fluctuations. In the 1960s and 1990s, common squid dominated the catches whereas in the 1970s and 1980s, it was replaced by walleye pollock. In the post-1988 regime shift, the distribution of horse mackerel shifted westward and southward and its distributional overlap with common mackerel decreased. The habitat of Pacific sardine also shifted away from mackerel habitats during this period. To evaluate changes in the organization and structure of the ecosystem in the Japan/East Sea, a mass-balanced model, Ecopath, was employed. Based on two mass-balanced models, representing before (1970–75) and after (1978–84) the 1976 regime shift, the weighted mean trophic level of catch increased from 3.09 before to 3.28 after. Total biomass of species groups in the Japan/East Sea ecosystem increased by 15% and total catch production increased by 48% due to the 1976 regime shift. The largest changes occurred at mid-trophic levels, occupied by fishes and cephalopods. The dominant predatory species shifted from cephalopods to walleye pollock due to the 1976 regime shift. It is concluded that the climatic regime shifts caused changes in the structure of the ecosystem and the roles of major species, as well as, large variations in biomass and production of fisheries resources.     

An analytical model with three sub-regions for m2 tide in the yellow sea and the East China Sea

In this study an analytical tide model of uniform width with three sub-regions is presented. The three-subregions model takes into account step-like variations in depths in the direction of the channel as a way to examine the M₂ tide of the East China Sea (ECS) as well as the Yellow Sea (YS). A modified Proudman radiation condition has been applied at the northern open head, while the sea surface elevation is specified at the southern open boundary. It is seen that, due to the presence of an abrupt change in depth, co-amplitude lines of the M₂ tide are splitted to the east and west near the end of the ECS shelf region. Variations in depths, bottom friction and the open head boundary conditions all contribute to the determination of formation of amphidromes as well as overall patterns of M₂ tidal distribution. It is seen that increasing water depth and bottom friction in the ECS shelf results in the westward shift of the southern amphidrome. There is however no hint at all of the well-known degenerated tidal pattern being formed. It is inferred that a lateral variation of water depth has to be somehow incorporated to represent the tidal patterns in ECS in a realistic manner. Regarding the radiation factor introduced by Fang et al. (1991), use of a value larger than one, possibly with a phase shift, appears to be a proper way of incorporating the reflected waves from the northern Yellow Sea (NYS). Key words - analytical model, M₂ tide, Kelvin wave, Yellow Sea, East China Sea     

Stock assessment and management implications of horse mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) in Korean waters, based on the relationships between recruitment and the ocean environment

This study presents an example of horse mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) stock to demonstrate that marine environmental factors are important in stock assessment for the new Korean Total Allowable Catch (TAC)-based fisheries management system. The estimated survival rate (S) of horse mackerel ranged from 0.25 to 0.36. The instantaneous coefficient of natural mortality (M) was 0.48/year, and the age at first capture was 0.83 year. Annual biomass of horse mackerel in Korean waters was estimated by a biomass-based cohort analysis using annual catch in weight at age during 1965–1995. Yield-per-recruit and spawning biomass-per-recruit were estimated under various harvest strategies at F_max, F_0.1, F_30% and F_40%. A method for estimating acceptable biological catch (ABC) is proposed for dealing with the large differences in the quality and quantity of information and data available. Using recruitment of horse mackerel estimated from various spawner–recruitment relationship models combined with salinity, volume transport, and zooplankton biomass as environmental factors, the ABC under the best information available was estimated to range from 3100 to 3800 mt.     

The stratigraphic evolution of the Indus Fan and the history of sedimentation in the Arabian Sea

The Indus Fan records the erosion of the western Himalayas and Karakoram since India began to collide with Asia during the Eocene, 50 Ma. Multi-channel seismic reflection data from the northern Arabian Sea correlated to industrial well Indus Marine A-1 on the Pakistan Shelf show that sedimentation patterns are variable through time, reflecting preferential sedimentation in deep water during periods of lower sea-level (e.g., middle Miocene, Pleistocene), the diversion of sediment toward the east following uplift of the Murray Ridge, and the autocyclic switching of fan lobes. Individual channel-levee systems are estimated to have been constructed over periods of 10⁵–10⁶ yr during the Late Miocene. Sediment velocities derived from sonobuoys and multi-channel stacking velocities allow sections to be time-depth converted and then backstripped to calculate sediment budgets through time. The middle Miocene is the period of most rapid accumulation, probably reflecting surface uplift in the source regions and strengthening of the monsoon at that time. Increasing sedimentation during the Pleistocene, after a late Miocene-Pliocene minimum, is apparently caused by faster erosion during intense glaciation. The sediment-unloaded geometry of the basement under the Pakistan Shelf shows a steep gradient, similar to the continent-ocean transition seen at other rifted volcanic margins, with basement depths on the oceanward side indistinguishable from oceanic crust. Consequently we suggest that the continent-ocean transition is located close to the present shelf break, rather than >350 km to the south, as previously proposed.     

Image processing for video images of buoy motion

In this paper, image processing technique that reduces video images of buoy motion to yield time series of image coordinates of buoy objects will be investigated. The buoy motion images are noisy due to time-varying brightness as well as non-uniform background illumination. The occurrence of boats, wakes, and wind-induced white caps interferes significantly in recognition of buoy objects. Thus, semiautomated procedures consisting of object recognition and image measurement aspects will be conducted. These offer more satisfactory results than a manual process. Spectral analysis shows that the image coordinates of buoy objects represent wave motion well, indicating its usefulness in the analysis of wave characteristics.     

Internal wave dispersion in deep oceans calculated by means of two-variable expansion techniques

An analytical study is made of linearized internal wave dispersion relation in a density-stratified deep ocean with aN(z) profile which contains turning points. Principal emphasis is placed on obtaining the-k relationship for all frequencies. Taking advantage of the largeness of the nondimensional wavenumber (kS1), the mathematical tool to attack the governing Sturm-Liouville equation is a combination of the two-variable expansion (valid far away from the turning point) and the limit-process expansion (valid in the neighborhood of the turning point). The matching conditions for these two expansion schemes provide the desired-k relationship. A numerical example of this method demonstrates satisfactory agreement with the results obtained by the strict analytical solution and the multi-layered matrix numerical model.     

An analytical solution for the local suspended sediment concentration profile in tidal sea region

The time-averaged and oscillatory solutions of the one-dimensional vertical (1DV) advection–diffusion equation for the suspended sediment have been derived analytically in a tidal sea region of finite water depth. The basic equation assumes constant eddy diffusivity and settling velocity. No net flux condition is set at the sea surface, while a boundary condition with the erosion rate and depositional velocity is prescribed at the sea bottom. The time-averaged solution has been derived in a straightforward manner, while the advection–diffusion equation governing the oscillatory concentration has been first transformed to a simple diffusion equation and then solved using the Galerkin-eigenfunction method. The former is given in a closed form, while the latter is presented in a series solution.A set of calculations has been performed to examine the change in the vertical structure as well as magnitude of the concentration response function. A possible use of the solution to make an estimate of the erosion rate at the sea bottom based on the concentration information at the sea surface is discussed.     

A period study and light-curve synthesis for the Algol-type semidetached binary XX Cephei

We obtained CCD photometric observations of the Algol-type semidetached binary XX Cephei (XX Cep) during 15 nights from 2002 September 17 to 2003 February 2, and also on 2005 January 21. Except for those data taken on the last night of the concentrated observing season, the 3881 measurements were obtained over an interval of only 106 nights. From these data, four new times of minimum light were calculated. The  (O− C)  diagram formed from all available timings, and thus the orbital period of the system, can be partly represented as a beat effect between two cyclical variations with different periods (      yr,      yr) and amplitudes  ( K ₁=0.015 d, K ₂=0.103 d)  , respectively. Both physical and non-physical interpretations of these cycles were investigated. The long-term sinusoidal variation is too long for magnetic cycling in solar-type single and close binary stars. In addition, we have studied the effect of a possible secular period variation. By analysing the residuals from our Wilson–Devinney (WD) binary model, we found small light variations with a period of 5.99 d with amplitudes growing toward longer wavelengths. We think that these oscillations may be produced by instabilities at the systemic L ₁ point (also occupied by the point of the cool star) and that these instabilities are, in turn, caused by non-uniform and sporadic convection. There is also a short-period oscillation of about 45 min in the WD light residuals that is attributed to accretion on to the mass-gaining primary component from a feeble gas stream originating on the cool donor star.     

Preliminary investigation of Late Pleistocene fauna from Ryonggok Cave No. 1, Sangwon County,North Hwanghae Province,Democratic People's Republic of Korea

The investigation of a limestone cave on the Ryonggok-ri of Sangwon County, North Hwanghae Province, DPRK, has yielded many faunal remains including Late Pleistocene deer, brown bears and horses. Uranium series dating of fossil teeth yielded dates of ~72ka at the base of Layer 2 – the bone-bearing unit – and ~44ka at the top. The rich and diverse mammal remains of Ryonggok Cave No. 1 are indicative of warm and humid temperate conditions during the Late Pleistocene, and reflect the presence of both dense forests and open grassland. In addition, pollen and spores from the site include two families and 24 genera of trees, six families and a genus of grasses and herbs, and two families and six genera of ferns, corroborating the environments inferred from the faunal remains.