The role of renewable energy in climate stabilization: results from the EMF27 scenarios

This paper uses the EMF27 scenarios to explore the role of renewable energy (RE) in climate change mitigation. Currently RE supplies almost 20 % of global electricity demand. Almost all EMF27 mitigation scenarios show a strong increase in renewable power production, with a substantial ramp-up of wind and solar power deployment. In many scenarios, renewables are the most important long-term mitigation option for power supply. Wind energy is competitive even without climate policy, whereas the prospects of solar photovoltaics (PV) are highly contingent on the ambitiousness of climate policy. Bioenergy is an important and versatile energy carrier; however—with the exception of low temperature heat—there is less scope for renewables other than biomass for non-electric energy supply. Despite the important role of wind and solar power in climate change mitigation scenarios with full technology availability, limiting their deployment has a relatively small effect on mitigation costs, if nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS)—which can serve as substitutes in low-carbon power supply—are available. Limited bioenergy availability in combination with limited wind and solar power by contrast, results in a more substantial increase in mitigation costs. While a number of robust insights emerge, the results on renewable energy deployment levels vary considerably across the models. An in-depth analysis of a subset of EMF27 reveals substantial differences in modeling approaches and parameter assumptions. To a certain degree, differences in model results can be attributed to different assumptions about technology costs, resource potentials and systems integration.     

Discrete fracture model for simulating waterflooding processes under fracturing conditions

In our study, we develop a model for simulating fracturing processes in a poroelastic medium. The proposed approach combines the discrete fracture model enriched with contact plane mechanics. The model captures mechanical interactions of fractures and a deformable medium, fluid, and heat transfer in fractures and in a porous medium. Both effects of poroelasticity and thermoelasticity are accounted in our model. Mass and heat conservation equations are approximated by the finite volume method, and mechanical equilibrium equations are discretized by means of the Galerkin finite element approach. Two‐dimensional grid facets between 3‐dimensional finite elements are considered as possible fracture surfaces. Most of these facets are inactive from the beginning and are activated throughout the simulation. A fracture propagation criterion, based on Irwin's approach, is verified on each nonlinear iteration. When the criterion is satisfied, additional contact elements are added into finite element and discrete fracture model formulations respectively. The proposed approach allows modeling of existing natural and artificially created fractures within one framework. The model is tested on single‐ and multiple‐phase fluid flow examples for both isothermal and thermal conditions and verified against existing semianalytical solutions. The applicability of the approach is demonstrated on an example of practical interests where a sector model of an oil reservoir is simulated with different injection and production regimes.     

On some modifications of Thomson-Haskell matrices for love waves

Summary In Haskell's formulation the dispersion equation is expressed by means of matrices, the elements of which are real or pure imaginary [2]. In the present paper different matrices have been found, which have only real elements.Dedicated to 90th Birthday of Professor Frantiek Fiala     

Deep-water Circulation: Processes & Products (16�C18 June 2010, Baiona): introduction and future challenges

Deep-water circulation is a critical part of the global conveyor belt that regulates Earth??s climate. The bottom (contour)-current component of this circulation is of key significance in shaping the deep seafloor through erosion, transport, and deposition. As a result, there exists a high variety of large-scale erosional and depositional features (drifts) that together form more complex contourite depositional systems on continental slopes and rises as well as in ocean basins, generated by different water masses flowing at different depths and at different speeds either in the same or in opposite directions. Yet, the nature of these deep-water processes and the deposited contourites is still poorly understood in detail. Their ultimate decoding will undoubtedly yield information of fundamental importance to the earth and ocean sciences. The international congress Deep-water Circulation: Processes & Products was held from 16?C18 June 2010 in Baiona, Spain, hosted by the University of Vigo. Volume 31(5/6) of Geo-Marine Letters is a special double issue containing 17 selected contributions from the congress, guest edited by F.J. Hernández-Molina, D.A.V. Stow, E. Llave, M. Rebesco, G. Ercilla, D. Van Rooij, A. Mena, J.-T. Vázquez and A.H.L. Voelker. The papers and discussions at the congress and the articles in this special issue provide a truly multidisciplinary perspective of interest to both academic and industrial participants, contributing to the advancement of knowledge on deep-water bottom circulation and related processes, as well as contourite sedimentation. The multidisciplinary contributions (including geomorphology, tectonics, stratigraphy, sedimentology, paleoceanography, physical oceanography, and deep-water ecology) have demonstrated that advances in paleoceanographic reconstructions and our understanding of the ocean??s role in the global climate system depend largely on the feedbacks among disciplines. New insights into the link between the biota of deep-water ecosystems and bottom currents confirm the need for this field to be investigated and mapped in detail. Likewise, it is confirmed that deep-water contourites are not only of academic interest but also potential resources of economic value. Cumulatively, both the congress and the present volume serve to demonstrate that the role of bottom currents in shaping the seafloor has to date been generally underestimated, and that our understanding of such systems is still in its infancy. Future research on contourites, using new and more advanced techniques, should focus on a more detailed visualization of water-mass circulation and its variability, in order to decipher the physical processes involved and the associations between drifts and other common bedforms. Moreover, contourite facies models should be better established, including their associations with other deep-water sedimentary environments both in modern and ancient submarine domains. The rapid increase in deep-water exploration and the new deep-water technologies available to the oil industry and academic institutions will undoubtedly lead to spectacular advances in contourite research in terms of processes, morphology, sediment stacking patterns, facies, and their relationships with other deep-marine depositional systems.     

Atmospheric deposition in complex forest landscapes

Atmospheric dry deposition in eight forest edges was estimated by means of throughfall and bulk precipitation measurements. Dry deposition was found to be enhanced in the first 5 edge heights. Deposition enhancement was strongly dependent on forest density, edge aspect and on the gas or particle under consideration. Incorporating edge effects in present-day deposition models will offer prospects to estimate deposition to individual forest stands as well as regional deposition amounts more accurately. From information available in the Dutch Forest Statistics, it became clear that at least 50% of the total forested area in the Netherlands is influenced by edge effects. By neglecting edge effects, dry deposition of acidifying compounds to Dutch forests is underestimated by current deposition models by approximately 10%.     

A synthetic Earth Gravity Model Designed Specifically for Testing Regional Gravimetric Geoid Determination Algorithms

A synthetic [simulated] Earth gravity model (SEGM) of the geoid, gravity and topography has been constructed over Australia specifically for validating regional gravimetric geoid determination theories, techniques and computer software. This regional high-resolution (1-arc-min by 1-arc-min) Australian SEGM (AusSEGM) is a combined source and effect model. The long-wavelength effect part (up to and including spherical harmonic degree and order 360) is taken from an assumed errorless EGM96 global geopotential model. Using forward modelling via numerical Newtonian integration, the short-wavelength source part is computed from a high-resolution (3-arc-sec by 3-arc-sec) synthetic digital elevation model (SDEM), which is a fractal surface based on the GLOBE v1 DEM. All topographic masses are modelled with a constant mass-density of 2,670 kg/m³. Based on these input data, gravity values on the synthetic topography (on a grid and at arbitrarily distributed discrete points) and consistent geoidal heights at regular 1-arc-min geographical grid nodes have been computed. The precision of the synthetic gravity and geoid data (after a first iteration) is estimated to be better than 30 μ Gal and 3 mm, respectively, which reduces to 1 μ Gal and 1 mm after a second iteration. The second iteration accounts for the changes in the geoid due to the superposed synthetic topographic mass distribution. The first iteration of AusSEGM is compared with Australian gravity and GPS-levelling data to verify that it gives a realistic representation of the Earth’s gravity field. As a by-product of this comparison, AusSEGM gives further evidence of the north–south-trending error in the Australian Height Datum. The freely available AusSEGM-derived gravity and SDEM data, included as Electronic Supplementary Material (ESM) with this paper, can be used to compute a geoid model that, if correct, will agree to in 3 mm with the AusSEGM geoidal heights, thus offering independent verification of theories and numerical techniques used for regional geoid modelling.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00190-005-0002-z     

Assessing the Accuracy of Volunteered Geographic Information arising from Multiple Contributors to an Internet Based Collaborative Project

The recent rise of neogeography and citizen sensing has increased the opportunities for the use of crowdsourcing as a means to acquire data to support geographical research. The value of the resulting volunteered geographic information is, however, often limited by concerns associated with its quality and the degree to which the contributing data sources may be trusted. Here, information on the quality of sources of volunteered geographic information was derived using a latent class analysis. The volunteered information was on land cover interpreted visually from satellite sensor images and the main focus was on the labeling of 299 sites by seven of the 65 volunteers who contributed to an Internet‐based collaborative project. Using the information on land cover acquired by the multiple volunteers it was shown that the relative, but not absolute, quality of the data from different volunteers could be characterized accurately. Additionally, class‐specific variations in the quality of the information provided by a single volunteer could be characterized by the analysis. The latent class analysis, therefore, was able to provide information on the quality of information provided on an inter‐ and intra‐volunteer basis.     

On spicules and the stability analysis of the minimum flux corona theory

It is shown that the stability analysis of coronae envisaged by Hearn (1975, 1979) does not lead to a unique stable configuration. The chromosphere-corona transition region is inevitably non-steady. Spicules are a manifestation of this. It is suggested that a point to point analysis of energy losses and gains, rather than a stability analysis, can determine the coronal parameters.