Erratum to: Assessment of coastal communities’ vulnerability to floods using indicator-based approach: a case study of Greater Accra Metropolitan Area,Ghana

In this paper, the extent to which the potentially transit-dependent portion of the population is vulnerable to the effects of a hurricane is estimated. The vulnerability of an area is defined as a composite measure of the proportion of disadvantaged persons, distance to transit, and flooding potential of people within an area. Unlike past studies which have focused on the vulnerability of the population in relatively large geographic areas, this study estimates the vulnerability of the population in 30 m × 30 m areas as defined in the National Land Cover Database. Population estimates from the national census at block level are disaggregated to the 30 m × 30 m units using a modified dasymetric mapping method in ArcGIS. The modified mapping method assigns population to each small areal unit using weights estimated by regressing the area of each land use in a census block against the population in that block. The coefficients in the regression analysis are “weights” associating population with each land use, and are used to distribute the population in each census block to the small geographic units based on their land use. In a case study of New Orleans, the results show that some areas are not well served by the existing transit pickup locations, as evidenced by their high vulnerability scores. Reassignment of pickup point locations to cover higher vulnerability score areas was investigated using integer linear programming. The results show that the optimally located pickup points serve areas with a larger average vulnerability score than the current pickup points in the study area. The method appears to be helpful in identifying vulnerable areas that, subsequently, could receive improved hurricane evacuation service in the future.     

Conditionally Averaged Large-Scale Motions in the Neutral Atmospheric Boundary Layer: Insights for Aeolian Processes

Aeolian erosion of flat, arid landscapes is induced (and sustained) by the aerodynamic surface stress imposed by flow in the atmospheric surface layer. Conceptual models typically indicate that sediment mass flux, Q (via saltation or drift), scales with imposed aerodynamic stress raised to some exponent, n, where \(n > 1\). This scaling demonstrates the importance of turbulent fluctuations in driving aeolian processes. In order to illustrate the importance of surface-stress intermittency in aeolian processes, and to elucidate the role of turbulence, conditional averaging predicated on aerodynamic surface stress has been used within large-eddy simulation of atmospheric boundary-layer flow over an arid, flat landscape. The conditional-sampling thresholds are defined based on probability distribution functions of surface stress. The simulations have been performed for a computational domain with \(\approx 25 H\) streamwise extent, where H is the prescribed depth of the neutrally-stratified boundary layer. Thus, the full hierarchy of spatial scales are captured, from surface-layer turbulence to large- and very-large-scale outer-layer coherent motions. Spectrograms are used to support this argument, and also to illustrate how turbulent energy is distributed across wavelengths with elevation. Conditional averaging provides an ensemble-mean visualization of flow structures responsible for erosion ‘events’. Results indicate that surface-stress peaks are associated with the passage of inclined, high-momentum regions flanked by adjacent low-momentum regions. Fluid in the interfacial shear layers between these adjacent quasi-uniform momentum regions exhibits high streamwise and vertical vorticity.     

Evaluation of an ensemble of regional climate model simulations over South America driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis: model performance and uncertainties

The capability of a set of 7 coordinated regional climate model simulations performed in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Project in reproducing the mean climate conditions over the South American continent has been evaluated. The model simulations were forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset for the period 1990–2008 on a grid resolution of 50 km, following the CORDEX protocol. The analysis was focused on evaluating the reliability of simulating mean precipitation and surface air temperature, which are the variables most commonly used for impact studies. Both the common features and the differences among individual models have been evaluated and compared against several observational datasets. In this study the ensemble bias and the degree of agreement among individual models have been quantified. The evaluation was focused on the seasonal means, the area-averaged annual cycles and the frequency distributions of monthly means over target sub-regions. Results show that the Regional Climate Model ensemble reproduces adequately well these features, with biases mostly within ±2 °C and ±20 % for temperature and precipitation, respectively. However, the multi-model ensemble depicts larger biases and larger uncertainty (as defined by the standard deviation of the models) over tropical regions compared with subtropical regions. Though some systematic biases were detected particularly over the La Plata Basin region, such as underestimation of rainfall during winter months and overestimation of temperature during summer months, every model shares a similar behavior and, consequently, the uncertainty in simulating current climate conditions is low. Every model is able to capture the variety in the shape of the frequency distribution for both temperature and precipitation along the South American continent. Differences among individual models and observations revealed the nature of individual model biases, showing either a shift in the distribution or an overestimation or underestimation of the range of variability.     

Robustness and the Paradox of Bridging Organizations: The Exit Problem in Regional Water Governance Networks in Central America

Bridging organizations facilitate a range of governance processes, including cooperation and social learning, and are theorized to be a key component of robust governance systems. In this article, we use node removal simulations to test structural hypotheses of robustness in a regional water governance network in Central America. We investigate the response of network measures supporting core governance processes to the targeted removal of bridging organizations and other actors, which we compare to random and centrality-based simulations. The results indicate removing bridging organizations has a greater impact on the network than any other type of actor, suggesting bridging organizations are critical to the robustness of the governance system. Furthermore, network structures supporting cooperation may be less robust than structures facilitating social learning. We conclude with policy implications of the research findings as they relate to the exit problem in governance systems with a large presence of international development actors.     

Geochemistry of groundwater in front of a warm‐based glacier in Southeast Greenland

Groundwater in front of warm‐based glaciers is likely to become a more integrated part of the future proglacial hydrological system at high latitudes due to global warming. Here, we present the first monitoring results of shallow groundwater chemistry and geochemical fingerprinting of glacier meltwater in front of a warm‐based glacier in Southeast Greenland (Mittivakkat Gletscher, 65° 41′ N, 37° 48′ W). The groundwater temperature, electrical conductivity and pressure head were monitored from August 2009 to August 2011, and water samples were collected in 2009 and analyzed for major ions and water isotopes (δD, δ¹⁸O). The 2 yrs of monitoring revealed that major outbursts of glacier water during the ablation season flushed the proglacial aquifer and determined the groundwater quality for the next 2–8 weeks until stable chemical conditions were reached again. Water isotope composition shows that isotopic fractionation occurs in both groundwater and glacier meltwater, but fractionation due to evaporation from near‐surface soil moisture prior to infiltration has the most significant effect. This study shows that groundwater in Low Arctic Greenland is likely to possess a combined geochemical and isotopic composition, which is distinguishable from other water sources in the proglacial environment. However, the shallow groundwater composition at a given time is highly dependent on major outbursts of glacier water in the previous months.     

Wavelength dependence of angular diameters of M giants: an observational perspective

We discuss the wavelength dependence of angular diameters of M giants from an observational perspective. Observers cannot directly measure an optical-depth radius for a star, despite this being a common theoretical definition. Instead, they can use an interferometer to measure the square of the fringe visibility. We present new plots of the wavelength-dependent centre-to-limb variation (CLV) of intensity of the stellar disc as well as visibility for Mira and non-Mira M giant models. We use the terms 'CLV spectra' and 'visibility spectra' for these plots. We discuss a model-predicted extreme limb-darkening effect (also called the narrow-bright-core effect) in very strong TiO bands which can lead to a misinterpretation of the size of a star in these bands. We find no evidence as yet that this effect occurs in real stars. Our CLV spectra can explain the similarity in visibilities of R Dor (M8IIIe) that have been observed recently, despite the use of two different passbands. We compare several observations with models, and find that the models generally underestimate the observed variation in visibility with wavelength. We present CLV and visibility spectra for a model that is applicable to the M supergiant α Ori.     

Intermediate disturbance and patterns of species richness

Abstract

The intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH) predicts highest species diversity in environments experiencing intermediate intensity disturbance, after an intermediate timespan. Because many landscapes comprise mosaics with complex disturbance histories, the theory implies that each patch in those mosaics should have a distinct level of diversity reflecting the magnitude of disturbance and the time since it occurred. We model changing patterns of species richness across a landscape experiencing varied scenarios of simulated disturbance in order to predict first the variation of richness through time in individual patches, based on their disturbance histories, and then the changing patterns of richness across the landscape through time, representing the cumulative impact of changing richness within the individual patches. Model outputs show that individual landscape patches have highly variable species richness through time, with the trajectory reflecting the timing, intensity and sequence of disturbances. When the results are mapped across the landscape, the resulting temporal and spatial complexity reveals a distribution of biodiversity that is strikingly contingent on the details of disturbance history. These results illustrate the danger of generalization (in either data interpretation or management decisions), as IDH actually imposes a highly variable pattern of diversity.     

Diffusive reequilibration of quartz-hosted silicate melt and fluid inclusions: Are all metal concentrations unmodified?

Experiments were conducted to determine the extent and mechanism by which the composition of quartz-hosted silicate melt inclusions (SMI) and aqueous fluid inclusions (FI) can undergo post-entrapment modification via diffusion. Quartz slabs containing assemblages of SMI and FI were reacted with synthetic HCl bearing and metalliferous aqueous fluids at T = 500-720 °C and P = 150-200 MPa. SMI from the single inclusion assemblages were analyzed by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS) and electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) before and after the experiments. Analyses revealed that rapid diffusion of the univalent cations Na⁺, Li⁺, Ag⁺, Cu⁺ and H⁺ occurred through the quartz from the surroundings, resulting in significant changes in the concentrations of these elements in the inclusions. Concentrations of other elements with an effective ionic radius larger than that of Ag⁺, or multiple valence states were not modified in the inclusions during the experiments. Our results warn inclusion‘‘ researchers that the interpretation of Na, Li, Cu and Ag concentrations from quartz-hosted SMI and FI should be treated critically.