A spatial cross‐correlation model of spectral accelerations at multiple periods

Many seismic loss problems (such as disruption of distributed infrastructure and losses to portfolios of structures) are dependent upon the regional distribution of ground‐motion intensity, rather than intensity at only a single site. Quantifying ground‐motion over a spatially‐distributed region therefore requires information on the correlation between the ground‐motion intensities at different sites during a single event. The focus of the present study is to assess the spatial correlation between ground‐motion spectral accelerations at different periods. Ground motions from eight well‐recorded earthquakes were used to study the spatial correlations. On the basis of obtained empirical correlation estimates, we propose a geostatistics‐based method to formulate a predictive model that is suitable for simulation of spectral accelerations at multiple sites and multiple periods, in the case of crustal earthquakes in active seismic regions. While the calibration of this model and investigation of its implications were somewhat complex, the model itself is very simple to use for making correlation predictions. A user only needs to evaluate a simple equation relying on three sets of coefficients provided here to compute a correlation coefficient for spectral values at two periods and at a specified separation distance. These results may then be used in evaluating the seismic risk of portfolios of structures with differing fundamental periods. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conditional spectrum‐based ground motion selection. Part I: Hazard consistency for risk‐based assessments

The conditional spectrum (CS, with mean and variability) is a target response spectrum that links nonlinear dynamic analysis back to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for ground motion selection. The CS is computed on the basis of a specified conditioning period, whereas structures under consideration may be sensitive to response spectral amplitudes at multiple periods of excitation. Questions remain regarding the appropriate choice of conditioning period when utilizing the CS as the target spectrum. This paper focuses on risk‐based assessments, which estimate the annual rate of exceeding a specified structural response amplitude. Seismic hazard analysis, ground motion selection, and nonlinear dynamic analysis are performed, using the conditional spectra with varying conditioning periods, to assess the performance of a 20‐story reinforced concrete frame structure. It is shown here that risk‐based assessments are relatively insensitive to the choice of conditioning period when the ground motions are carefully selected to ensure hazard consistency. This observed insensitivity to the conditioning period comes from the fact that, when CS‐based ground motion selection is used, the distributions of response spectra of the selected ground motions are consistent with the site ground motion hazard curves at all relevant periods; this consistency with the site hazard curves is independent of the conditioning period. The importance of an exact CS (which incorporates multiple causal earthquakes and ground motion prediction models) to achieve the appropriate spectral variability at periods away from the conditioning period is also highlighted. The findings of this paper are expected theoretically but have not been empirically demonstrated previously. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conditional spectrum‐based ground motion selection. Part II: Intensity‐based assessments and evaluation of alternative target spectra

In a companion paper, an overview and problem definition was presented for ground motion selection on the basis of the conditional spectrum (CS), to perform risk‐based assessments (which estimate the annual rate of exceeding a specified structural response amplitude) for a 20‐story reinforced concrete frame structure. Here, the methodology is repeated for intensity‐based assessments (which estimate structural response for ground motions with a specified intensity level) to determine the effect of conditioning period. Additionally, intensity‐based and risk‐based assessments are evaluated for two other possible target spectra, specifically the uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) and the conditional mean spectrum (CMS, without variability).It is demonstrated for the structure considered that the choice of conditioning period in the CS can substantially impact structural response estimates in an intensity‐based assessment. When used for intensity‐based assessments, the UHS typically results in equal or higher median estimates of structural response than the CS; the CMS results in similar median estimates of structural response compared with the CS but exhibits lower dispersion because of the omission of variability. The choice of target spectrum is then evaluated for risk‐based assessments, showing that the UHS results in overestimation of structural response hazard, whereas the CMS results in underestimation. Additional analyses are completed for other structures to confirm the generality of the conclusions here. These findings have potentially important implications both for the intensity‐based seismic assessments using the CS in future building codes and the risk‐based seismic assessments typically used in performance‐based earthquake engineering applications. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi‐dimensional analyses of the SEAM controlled source electromagnetic data—the story of a blind test of interpretation workflows

Using a subset of the SEG Advanced Modeling Program Phase I controlled‐source electromagnetic data, we apply our standard controlled‐source electromagnetic interpretation workflows to delineate a simulated hydrocarbon reservoir. Experience learned from characterizing such a complicated model offers us an opportunity to refine our workflows to achieve better interpretation quality. The exercise proceeded in a blind test style, where the interpreting geophysicists did not know the true resistivity model until the end of the project. Rather, the interpreters were provided a traditional controlled‐source electromagnetic data package, including electric field measurements, interpreted seismic horizons, and well log data. Based on petrophysical analysis, a background resistivity model was established first. Then, the interpreters started with feasibility studies to establish the recoverability of the prospect and carefully stepped through 1D, 2.5D, and 3D inversions with seismic and well log data integrated at each stage. A high‐resistivity zone is identified with 1D analysis and further characterized with 2.5D inversions. Its lateral distribution is confirmed with a 3D anisotropic inversion. The importance of integrating all available geophysical and petrophysical data to derive more accurate interpretation is demonstrated.     

Runup uncertainty on planar beaches

Parameterization of wave runup is of paramount importance for an assessment of coastal hazards. Parametric models employ wave (e.g., H_s and L_p) and beach (i.e., β) parameters to estimate extreme runup (e.g., R_2%). Thus, recent studies have been devoted to improving such parameterizations by including additional information regarding wave forcing or beach morphology features. However, the effects of intra-wave dynamics, related to the random nature of the wave transformation process, on runup statistics have not been incorporated. This work employs a phase- and depth- resolving model, based on the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations, to investigate different sources of variability associated with runup on planar beaches. The numerical model is validated with laboratory runup data. Subsequently, the role of both aleatory uncertainty and other known sources of runup variability (i.e., frequency spreading and bed roughness) is investigated. Model results show that aleatory uncertainty can be more important than the contributions from other sources of variability such as the bed roughness and frequency spreading. Ensemble results are employed to develop a new parametric model which uses the Hunt (J Waterw Port Coastal Ocean Eng 85:123–152, 1959) scaling parameter \(\beta \left (H_{s}L_{p}\right )^{1/2}\).

     

Pelagic tar off Georgia and Florida in relation to physical processes

Following the Ixtoc I oil rig blowout in Campeche Bay we hypothesized that resulting tarballs should eventually appear in the Gulf Stream off Gerogia and that because of dynamic barriers in the innershelf little would reach nearshore areas. To test these hypotheses, surface tows to collect floating tar were taken off the coasts of Georgia and Florida in October and December, 1979.No tar was found within 40 km of the shore. All samples more than 40 km offshore contained some tar. The mean concentration was 0.82 mg m^?2 with a range of 0.01–5.6 mg m^?2. Closely spaced sampling showed extreme variation but trends were consistent. Perylene was the most abundant compound in the tarballs.     

A microprobe study of metalliferous sediment components

Smectite aggregates, Fe-Mn micronodules, and fish debris from the coarse fraction of a metalliferous sediment sample from the Bauer Basin have been analyzed by microprobe. Both X-ray diffraction and bulk chemical analyses reveal that the smectite, an iron-rich and aluminum-poor nontronite, is the dominant phase. A linear programming solution to a series of mass balance equations indicates that the bulk sample is 70% smectite, 4% todorokite, 13% microlaminated material, and 1% fish debris. Two episodes of micronodule development are indicated by the presence of overgrowths of microlaminated iron-rich material over a homogeneous dense todorokite core. The two micronodule compositions can be explained by reaction of hydrothermally produced amorphous Fe-Mn oxyhydroxides with biogenous opal to form the calculated phase composition. The rare earth elements in the bulk sample can be explained by a similar diagenetic process which distributes rare earth elements of a seawater origin between cerium-enriched micronodules and cerium-depleted fish debris.     

Factors controlling the noble gas abundance patterns of deep-sea basalts

A number of processes may modify the noble gas composition of silicate liquids so that the composition of noble gases observed in glassy margins of deep-sea basalts is not that of the upper mantle. Differential solubility enhances the light noble gases relative to the heavier gases; however, we demonstrate that the observed abundance pattern cannot be attributed to solubility of noble gases with atmospheric proportions. Partial melting and fractional crystallization increase the noble gas content of all species relative to mantle concentrations, but do not fractionate their relative abundances. Noble gases may be lost from an ascending magma in various ways, the most important, however, may be exclusion of gas from crystals forming at the time of solidification, which is shown to result in marked loss of gas from the basalt. Small amounts of low-temperature alteration of solidified basalt can produce dramatic changes in the noble gas abundance pattern, since the adsorption coefficients for the different noble gas favor uptake of heavy species relative to the light species. Atmospheric contamination can account for observed variations in the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar ratio of oceanic basalts. The degree of crystallinity of glassy margins of deep-sea basalts may control the helium abundance of these samples; however, the uniform ³He/⁴He values reported apparently reflect a relatively constant proportion of radiogenic and primordial helium in the mantle.     

Late Holocene estuarine–inner shelf interactions; is there evidence of an estuarine retreat path for Tampa Bay, Florida?

The purpose of this study was to determine if and how a large, modern estuarine system, situated in the middle of an ancient carbonate platform, has affected its adjacent inner shelf both in the past during the last, post-glacial sea-level rise and during the present. An additional purpose was to determine if and how this inner shelf seaward of a major estuary differed from the inner shelves located just to the north and south but seaward of barrier-island shorelines. Through side-scan sonar mosaicking, bathymetric studies, and ground-truthing using surface grab samples as well as diver observations, two large submarine sand plains were mapped – one being the modern ebb-tidal delta and the other interpreted to be a relict ebb-tidal delta formed earlier in the Holocene. The most seaward portion of the inner shelf studied consists of a field of lobate, bathymetrically elevated, fine-sand accumulations, which were interpreted to be sediment-starved 3D dunes surrounded by small 2D dunes composed of coarse molluscan shell gravel. Additionally, exposed limestone hardbottoms supporting living benthic communities were found as well. This modern shelf sedimentary environment is situated on a large, buried shelf valley, which extends eastward beneath the modern Tampa Bay estuary. These observations plus the absence of an incised shelf valley having surficial bathymetric expression, and the absence of sand bodies normally associated with back-tracking estuarine systems indicate that there was no cross-shelf estuarine retreat path formed during the last rise in sea level. Instead, the modern Tampa Bay formed within a mid-platform, low-relief depression, which was flooded by rising marine waters late in the Holocene. With continued sea-level rise in the late Holocene, this early embayment was translated eastward or landward to its present position, whereby a larger ebb-tidal delta prograded out onto the inner shelf. Extensive linear sand ridges, common to the inner shelves to the north and south, did not form in this shelf province because it was a low-energy, open embayment lacking the wave climate and nearshore zone necessary to create such sand bodies. The distribution of bedforms on the inner shelf and the absence of seaward-oriented 2D dunes on the modern ebb-tidal delta indicate that the modern estuarine system has had little effect on its adjacent inner shelf.