Habitat suitability curves for benthic macroinvertebrates from a small New Zealand river

We developed habitat suitability curves (HSC) using generalised additive models (GAMs) for nine benthic macroinvertebrate taxa from a small New Zealand river for hydraulic-habitat modelling assessments of instream flow requirements. We included interaction terms between the primary variables (water depth, velocity, substrate) when significant, to address a longstanding criticism of univariate HSC. To date, only large-river univariate HSC have been available and these have been used in hydraulic-habitat applications on small rivers, despite doubt over the transferability of HSC between rivers of different size and type. We tested the outcome on the predicted abundance–flow relationship of applying the small-river habitat suitability GAMs versus large-river GAMs for two taxa on the same small river. We found the effects of flow allocation were overestimated by the large-river GAMs relative to the small-river GAMs. Further research to develop general HSC for categories of river size and type is needed to better inform hydraulic-habitat modelling applications.     

Selected topics in arctic atmosphere and climate

This paper summarizes the main elements of four IPY projects that examine the Arctic Atmosphere. All four projects focus on present conditions with a view to anticipating possible climate change. All four investigate the Arctic atmosphere, ocean, ice, and land interfacial surfaces. One project uses computer models to simulate the dynamics of the Arctic atmosphere, storms, and their interactions with the ocean and ice interface. Another project uses statistical methods to infer transports of pollutants as simulated in large-scale global atmospheric and oceanic models verifying results with available observations. A third project focuses on measurements of pollutants at the ice-ocean?Catmosphere interface, with reference to model estimates. The fourth project is concerned with multiple, high accuracy measurements at Eureka in the Canadian Archipelago. While these projects are distinctly different, led by different teams and interdisciplinary collaborators, with different technical approaches and methodologies, and differing objectives, they all strive to understand the processes of the Arctic atmosphere and climate, and to lay the basis for projections of future changes. Key findings include: ? Decreased sea ice leads to more intense storms, higher winds, reduced surface albedo, increased surface air temperature, and enhanced vertical mixing in the upper ocean. ? Arctic warming may affect toxic chemicals by remobilizing persistent organic pollutants and augmenting mercury deposition/retention in the environment. ? Changes in sea ice can dramatically change processes in and at the ice surface related to ozone, mercury and bromine oxide and related chemical/physical properties. ? Structure and properties of the Arctic atmospheric??troposphere to stratosphere??and tracking of transport of pollution and smoke plumes from mid-latitudes to the poles.     

Development and Application of a Method to Identify Salt Marsh Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise

Wetlands are commonly assessed for ecological condition and biological integrity using a three-tiered framework of landscape-scale assessment, rapid assessment protocols, and intensive biological and physiochemical measurements. However, increased inundation resulting from accelerated sea level rise (SLR) is negatively impacting tidal marsh ecosystem functions for US Northeast coastal wetlands, yet relative vulnerability to this stressor is not incorporated in condition assessments. This article assesses tools available to measure coastal wetland vulnerability to SLR, including measurements made as part of traditional rapid condition assessments (e.g., vegetation communities, soil strength), field and remote sensing-based measurements of elevation, VDatum, and Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) model outputs. A vulnerability metric that incorporates these tools was calibrated and validated using recent rates of marsh vegetation losses (1972–2011) as a surrogate for future vulnerability. The metric includes complementary measures of elevation capital, including the percentage of high vs. low marsh vegetation, Spartina alterniflora height, elevation measurements, and SLAMM outputs that collectively explained 62% of the variability in recent rates of marsh vegetation loss. Stepwise regression revealed that all three elements (elevation, vegetation measures, and SLAMM outputs) explained significant and largely unique components of vulnerability to SLR, with the greatest level of overlap found between SLAMM outputs and elevation metrics. While soil strength varied predictably with habitat zone, it did not contribute significantly to the vulnerability metric. Despite the importance of determining wetland elevation above key tidal datums of mean sea level and mean high water, we caution that VDatum was found to perform poorly in back-barrier estuaries. This factor makes it difficult to compare elevation capital among marshes that differ in tidal range and poses accuracy problems for broad-scale modeling efforts that require accurate tidal datums. Given the pervasive pattern of coastal wetland drowning occurring in the Northeastern USA and elsewhere, we advocate that compilation of regional data on marsh habitats and vulnerability to SLR is crucial as it permits agencies to target adaptation to sites based on their vulnerability or mixture of habitats, it helps match sites to appropriate interventions, and it provides a broader regional context to site-specific management actions. Without such data, adaptation actions may be implemented where action is not necessary and to the disadvantage of vulnerable sites where opportunities for successful adaptation will be missed.     

Vegetation Dynamics in Rhode Island Salt Marshes During a Period of Accelerating Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Level Events

Sea level rise is a major stressor on many salt marshes, and its impacts include creek widening, ponding, vegetation dieback, and drowning. Marsh vegetation changes have been associated with sea level rise across southern New England, but most of these studies pre-date the current period of rapidly accelerating sea level rise coupled with episodic events of extreme increases in water levels. Here, we combine data from two salt marsh monitoring and assessment programs in Rhode Island that were designed to assess marsh responses to sea level rise and use these data to document temporal and spatial patterns in marsh vegetation during the current period of extreme water level increases. Vegetation monitoring at two Narragansett Bay salt marshes confirms the ongoing decline of the salt meadow species Spartina patens during this period as it becomes replaced by Spartina alterniflora. Bare ground resulting from vegetation dieback was significantly related to mean high water levels and led to the rapid conversion of mixed Spartina assemblages to S. alterniflora monocultures. A broader spatial assessment of RI marshes shows that S. alterniflora dominance increases at lower elevation marshes toward the mouth of Narraganset Bay. Our data provide additional evidence that S. patens continues to decline in southern New England marshes and show that losses can accelerate during periods of extreme high water levels. Unless adaptive management actions are taken, we predict that marshes throughout RI will continue to lose salt meadow habitat and eventually resemble lower elevation marshes that are already dominated by S. alterniflora monocultures.     

Extinction changes at Black Birch Astrometric Observatory due to volcanic aerosols from Mount Pinatubo

Nightly means for extinction were determined from the recorded real-time extinction values of observations made on the 7-inch Transit Circle Telescope at Black Birch Astrometric Observatory (BBAO). The residual effects of the 15 June 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines increased the extinction by about 0.25 magnitudes per airmass.     

Estimating the Horizontal Gradient in Heterogeneous, Unconfined Aquifers: Comparison of Three-Point Schemes

At least two approaches may be used to estimate the horizontal components of the hydraulic gradient based on measured heads from three observation points. First, the gradient may be estimated by passing a plane through the measured heads (h-method). Second, if the elevation of the base of the aquifer is known to be spatially constant, an estimate of the gradient may be obtained using the squares of the measured heads (h²- method). In the present study, these methods are examined in application to a heterogeneous system. Using Monte Carlo analysis, we demonstrate that the magnitude of the gradient estimated via the h-method involved significant bias, which increased when the distance separating the wells increased. In contrast, bias in the estimated magnitude of the gradient based on the h²-method decreased with increasing separation among the wells. Estimation variances for both the magnitude and orientation of the gradient also decreased with separation distance. The variance in the orientation was observed to remain relatively high, however, even at relatively large separations among the wells (e.g., 10 integral scales). These results are Interpreted as implying that the best estimate of the gradient for steady flow in an unconfined aquifer is derived from the h²- method with the wells separated by significant distances. These results also demonstrate the uncertainty inherent in estimating the gradient based on limited field data.     

Movements of spawning rainbow smelt,Osmerus mordax,in a massachusetts estuary

Movements of spawning rainbow smelt, Osmerus mordax, were followed in the Parker River estuary, Massachusetts during 1974 and 1975. Fish marked with vinyl subcutaneous tags (n=1,492) or fin clips (n=577) were recaptured on three separate spawning sites in three different tributaries; the distribution patterns of marked fish indicated a homogeneous spawning stock. Interstream movement may have been facilitated by tidal transport since smelt ascended to the spawning sites on flood tides and moved downstream as tides ebbed. Rates of recapture of fish tagged on the spawning areas were 2.61 and 5.61 times greater for males than females in 1974 and 1975 respectively. Individual tagged males were recovered up to four times during the spawning period; females were recaptured a maximum of once. The proportion of age II and older females sampled from the angling fishery prior to spawning in 1975 (47.38%) was greater than the cumulative proportion sampled on the spawning sites (11.93%) due to longer spawning period of individual males.