Correlation of stadial and interstadial events in the south Swedish glacial varves with the GRIP oxygen isotope record

A number of correlated varve sequences from the local varve chronology in southeastern Sweden have been selected to make a 1040 varve years long mean varve thickness curve. Pollen analyses were carried out over an interval of 373 varve years in the northern part of the study area. The pollen stratigraphical data have been divided into local pollen assemblage zones which have been correlated with the radiocarbon-dated regional pollen assemblage zones. Based on variations in herb and tree pollen content of the analysed varve sequences, it has been possible to identify well-documented lateglacial pollen zones for southern Sweden, i.e. the Bölling interstadial (GI-1e), the Older Dryas cold event (GI-1d) and the early part of the Alleröd interstadial (GI-1c). The event stratigraphy in this study, based on varying varve thicknesses and the composition of the pollen flora in the varves, has been correlated with the oxygen isotope stratigraphy of the GRIP ice-core on Greenland between 13600 and 14400 GRIP ice-core years BP. It is concluded that five decadal warm events and one centennial warm event (15–60 and 100 varve years long, respectively) occur in the clay varve record along with one centennial cold event (150 varve years long), the Older Dryas (GI-1d).     

Recommendations for the processing and storage of water samples before polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis

A range of options for the storage and partial processing of water samples before polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis were evaluated. In addition, temporal storage of extracted DNA at 4 °C was investigated. Filtering the water sample and then storing that filter at ?20 °C for up to six months before DNA extraction was equivalent to extracting DNA immediately. Freezing a water sample resulted in an immediate 1 log loss of PCR signal, although thereafter the sample was stable for at least three months. A rapid loss of detectable PCR product was found when storing a water sample at 4 °C for longer than one week. Extracted DNA could be stored at 4 °C for at least six months without considerable loss of PCR signal.     

Faecal indicators and pathogens in selected New Zealand waterfowl

Freshly excreted droppings from Canada geese (n=80), black swans (n=80), ducks (n=80) and gulls (n=80) were collected from sites around New Zealand. The droppings were enumerated for Escherichia coli, enterococci and Salmonella spp., and for the presence/absence of Cryptosporidium spp. Overall prevalence of E. coli and enterococci in samples was 95% and 94%, respectively. Cryptosporidium spp. was detected in 2% of the samples, whereas no Salmonella spp. were detected in the survey. Preliminary estimates of daily microbial outputs suggest that ducks will produce the highest loadings of E. coli and enterococci per bird, whereas Canada geese will produce the highest loadings of Campylobacter spp. per bird. This study provides the first set of indicator and pathogen counts for one of the largest sources of diffuse faecal contamination of natural waters in New Zealand.     

Evidence of chaos in the rainfall-runoff process

Abstract

The transformation of rainfall into runoff is one of the most important processes in hydrology. In the past few decades, a wide variety of automated or computer-based approaches have been applied to model this process. However, many such approaches have an important limitation in that they treat the rainfall-runoff process as a realization of only a few parameters of linear relationships rather than the process as a whole. What is required, therefore, is an approach that can capture not only the overall appearance but also the intricate details of the nonlinear behaviour of the process. The purpose of this study is to investigate the possibility of understanding the dynamics of the rainfall-runoff process from a new perspective, as a chaotic process. The possible existence of chaotic behaviour in the rainfall-runoff process is studied by investigating the rainfall and runoff time series: (a) separately; and (b) jointly (using the runoff coefficient). Monthly rainfall and runoff observed over a period of 131 years (January 1807-December 1937) at the Göta River basin in the south of Sweden are analysed. The correlation dimension method is employed to identify the presence of chaos. The correlation dimensions obtained for the rainfall and runoff time series are 6.4 and 5.5, respectively. The finite dimensions obtained for the rainfall and runoff time series indicate the possible existence of chaos in these processes, implying that the joint rainfall-runoff process might also exhibit chaotic behaviour. The correlation dimension of about 7.8 obtained for the runoff coefficient also indicates the possible presence of chaos and supports the above results.     

Melting of a Hydrous Mantle: III. Phase Relations of Garnet Websterite+H2O at High Pressures and Temperatures

A garnet websterite nodule from the Honolulu volcanic series,Oahu, Hawaii, has been melted in the presence of nearly pureH₂O. The solidus is intermediate between that of peridotiteand gabbro. The curve displays a temperature minimum around20 kb reflecting the breakdown of plagioclase. The Iiquidusis between 1130 ?C and 1150 ?C between 10 and 20 kb vapor pressure.Amphibole (pargasitic hornblende) has an extensive stabilityfield, reaching a maximum temperature about 20 ?C below thegarnet websterite liquidus at 15 kb and a maximum pressure of27.5 kb at 950 ?C. The amphibole-out curve intersects the soliduswith a positive slope. Liquids formed by partial melting of garnet websterite are quartz-normativewithin the stability field of amphibole, but become olivine-normative(tholeiitic) with increasing temperature. Amphibole and clinopyroxeneare enriched in Tschermak's molecule at higher temperatures,pargasite content of amphibole increases with increasing pressure. A garnet websterite-rich upper mantle containing modal olivineyields quartz-normative (13–16 per cent), aluminous (21–4wt. per cent A1₂O₃) melts at 17 P 10 kb and in the presenceof nearly pure H₂O. However, the presence of amphibole controlsthe liquid composition, a situation not found for liquids formedfrom wet peridotite. In contrast to many basalt liquids, liquidof garnet websterite composition cannot fractionate to andesiteby precipitation of amphibole, as amphibole is not a liquidusphase.     

Flow-dependent versus flow-independent initial perturbations for ensemble prediction

Ensemble prediction relies on a faithful representation of initial uncertainties in a forecasting system. Early research on initial perturbation methods tested random perturbations by adding 'white noise' to the analysis. Here, an alternative kind of random perturbations is introduced by using the difference between two randomly chosen atmospheric states (i.e. analyses). It yields perturbations (random field, RF, perturbations) in approximate flow balance.
The RF method is compared with the operational singular vector based ensemble at European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the ensemble transform (ET) method. All three methods have been implemented on the ECMWF IFS-model with resolution T _L 255L40. The properties of the different perturbation methods have been investigated both by comparing the dynamical properties and the quality of the ensembles in terms of different skill scores. The results show that the RF perturbations initially have the same dynamical properties as the natural variability of the atmosphere. After a day of integration, the perturbations from all three methods converge. The skill scores indicate a statistically significant advantage for the RF method for the first 2–3 d for the most of the evaluated parameters. For the medium range (3–8 d), the differences are very small.     

Upper Pleistocene stratigraphy at the Medininkai site, eastern Lithuania: a continuous record of the Eemian-Weichselian sequence

Eemian—Weichselian sequences, located outside the maximum limit of the Late Weichselian ice sheet, provide excellent opportunities for the discovery of continuous sedimentary records encompassing the whole Last Interglacial/Glacial cycle. Such a sequence is recorded in a borehole (117P) through the succession in a small kettlehole lake located at Medininkai, eastern Lithuania. The succession consists of peat, gyttja and silt deposited on top of a Saalian till. Pollen and plant macrofossil analysis, lithological analysis, U/Th dating and mineral magnetic measurements on the sediments have allowed 19 lithostratigraphic units and 16 local pollen assemblage zones (LPAZ) to be identified. The palaeocarpological record reveals a clear transition from the Saalian Glacial to the Weichselian stadial and interstadial phases. The mineral magnetic parameters suggest a good correlation between the concentration of magnetic minerals and stadial and interstadial periods. The Merkine (Eemian) Interglacial and two Early Weichselian Interstadials, Jonionys 1 (Brörup) and Jonionys 2 (Odderade), separated by cryomers, are identified. Intervals interpreted as analogous to the Middle Weichselian Denekamp and Hengelo interstadials are also recognized on the basis of pollen assemblages. The results show alternating periglacial and interstadial palaeoenvironments in Lithuania during the Early and Middle Weichselian and are of importance for Late Pleistocene palaeoenvironmental reconstruction of the Baltic area as a whole.     

THE ROLE OF ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS IN AGROCLIMATE VARIABILITY IN FINLAND, 1961–2011

This study evaluates interannual variations and trends in growing season daily temperature sum and daily precipitation sum in Finland during 1961–2011, and their connections to well known atmospheric circulation patterns. Changes in summer (June–August) climate partially explain changes in growing season daily temperature sum and daily precipitation sum over Finland, which naturally decreased from south to north. On a national scale, growing season warmed and became wetter during 1961–2011, as growing season daily temperature sum and daily precipitation sum significantly (p < 0.05) increased by 5.01 ± 3.17°C year^–1 and 1.39 ± 0.91 mm year^–1, respectively. The East Atlantic pattern was the most influential atmospheric circulation pattern for variations in growing season daily temperature sum (rho = 0.40) across Finland and the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern was most influential for growing season daily precipitation sum variability (rho = –0.54). There were significant (p < 0.05) increasing trends in growing season daily temperature sum and daily precipitation sum throughout Finland during 1961–2011. Increased growing season daily temperature sum was mainly observed in northern, central, western, eastern and coastal areas of south‐western Finland. This warming was positively associated with the East Atlantic pattern in the north, centre and south, but negatively associated with the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern in eastern Finland. Increased GSP mostly occurred in southern, eastern, western, central, northern and north‐western Finland. These wetting trends were positively correlated with the East Atlantic pattern in the north and negatively correlated with the Polar pattern in the south and the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern in the east, west, centre and north‐east of Finland. The overall agroclimatic year‐to‐year variability in Finland between 1961 and 2011 was mostly linked to variations in the East Atlantic and East Atlantic/West Russia patterns.     

Melting of a Hydrous Mantle: I. Phase Relations of Natural Peridotite at High Pressures and Temperatures with Controlled Activities of Water, Carbon Dioxide, and Hydrogen

Four natural peridotite nodules ranging from chemically depletedto Fe-rich, alkaline and calcic (SiO₂ = 43.7–45.7 wt.per cent, A1₂O₃ = 1.6O–8.21 wt. per cent, CaO = 0.70–8.12wt. per cent, alk = 0.10–0.90 wt. per cent and Mg/(Mg+Fe²⁺)= 0.94–0.85) have been investigated in the hypersolidusregion from 800? to 1250?C with variable activities of H₂O,CO₂, and H₂. The vapor-saturated peridotite solidi are 50–200?Cbelow those previously published. The temperature of the beginningof melting of peridotite decreases markedly with decreasingMg/(Mg+SFe) of the starting material at constant CaO/Al₂O₃.Conversely, lowering CaO/Al₂O₃ reduces the temperature at constantMg/(Mg+Fe) of the starting material. Temperature differencesbetween the solidi up to 200?C are observed. All solidi displaya temperature minimum reflecting the appearance of garnet. Thisminimum shifts to lower pressure with decreasing Mg/(Mg + Fe)of the starting material. The temperature of the beginning ofmelting decreases isobarically as approximately a linear functionof the mol fraction of H₂O in the vapor (X_H2O^v). The data alsoshow that some CO₂ may dissolve in silicate melts formed bypartial melting of peridotite. Amphibole (pargasitic hornblende) is a hypersolidus mineralin all compositions, although its P/T stability field dependson bulk rock chemistry. The upper pressure stability of amphiboleis marked by the appearance of garnet. The vapor-saturated (H₂O) liquidus curve for one peridotiteis between 1250? and 1300?C between 10 and 30 kb. Olivine, spinel,and orthopyroxene are either liquidus phases or co-exist immediatelybelow the temperature of the peridotite liquidus. The data suggest considerable mineralogical heterogeneity inthe oceanic upper mantle because the oceanic geotherm passesthrough the P/T band covering the appearance of garnet in variousperidotites. The variable depth to the low-velocity zone is explained byvariable aHjo conditions in the upper mantle and possibly alsoby variations in the composition of the peridotite itself. Itis suggested that komatiite in Precambrian terrane could formby direct melting of hydrous peridotite. Such melting requiresabout 1250?C compared with 1600?C which is required for drymelting. The genesis of kimberlite can be related to partial meltingof peridotite under conditions of X_H2O^v = 0.5–0.25 (X_CO2^v= 0.5–0.75). Such activities of H₂O result in meltingat depths ranging between 125 and 175 km in the mantle. Thisrange is within the minimum depth generally accepted for theformation of kimberlite.