Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change

Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 in CO₂ equivalent using 100-year CH₄ global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH₄ GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH₄ even though CH₄ was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.     

Contemporary Rates of Carbon Sequestration Through Vertical Accretion of Sediments in Mangrove Forests and Saltmarshes of South East Queensland,Australia

Mangrove forests and saltmarshes are important habitats for carbon (C) sequestration in the coastal zone but variation in rates of C sequestration and the factors controlling sequestration are poorly understood. We assessed C sequestration in Moreton Bay, South East Queensland in mangrove forests and tidal marshes that span a range of environmental settings and plant communities, including mangrove forests and tidal marshes on the oligotrophic sand islands of the eastern side of Moreton Bay and on the nutrient enriched, western side of the bay adjacent to the city of Brisbane. We found that rates of C sequestration in sediments were similar among mangrove forests over the bay, despite large differences in the C density of sediments, because of different rates of vertical accretion of sediments. The C sequestration on the oligotrophic sand island tidal marshes, dominated by Juncus kraussii, had the highest rate of C sequestration in the bay while the western saltmarshes, which were dominated by Sarcocornia quinqueflora, had the lowest rate of C sequestration. Our data indicate C sequestration varies among different tidal wetland plant community types, due to variation in sediment characteristics and rates of sediment accretion over time.     

Latitudinal and altitudinal controls of Titan’s dune field morphometry

Dune fields dominate ～13% of Titan’s surface and represent an important sink of carbon in the methane cycle. Herein, we discuss correlations in dune morphometry with altitude and latitude. These correlations, which have important implications in terms of geological processes and climate on Titan, are investigated through the microwave electromagnetic signatures of dune fields using Cassini radar and radiometry observations. The backscatter and emissivity from Titan’s dune terrains are primarily controlled by the amount of interdune area within the radar footprint and are also expected to vary with the degree of the interdunal sand cover. Using SAR-derived topography, we find that Titan’s main dune fields (Shangri-La, Fensal, Belet and Aztlan) tend to occupy the lowest elevation areas in Equatorial regions occurring at mean elevations between ～?400 and ～0 m (relative to the geoid). In elevated dune terrains, we show a definite trend towards a smaller dune to interdune ratio and possibly a thinner sand cover in the interdune areas. A similar correlation is observed with latitude, suggesting that the quantity of windblown sand in the dune fields tends to decrease as one moves farther north. The altitudinal trend among Titan’s sand seas is consistent with the idea that sediment source zones most probably occur in lowlands, which would reduce the sand supply toward elevated regions. The latitudinal preference could result from a gradual increase in dampness with latitude due to the asymmetric seasonal forcing associated with Titan’s current orbital configuration unless it is indicative of a latitudinal preference in the sand source distribution or wind transport capacity.     

The growth of wind-waves in Titan’s hydrocarbon seas

Ocean wave growth on Titan is considered. The classic Sverdrup–Munk theory for terrestrial wave growth is applied to Titan, and is compared with a simple energy balance model that exposes the effect of Titan’s environmental parameters (air density, gravity, and fluid density). These approaches are compared with the only previously-published (semi-empirical) model (Ghafoor, N.A.-L., Zarnecki, J.C., Challenor, P., Srokosz, M.A. [2000] J. Geophys. Res. 105, 12,077–12,091, hereafter G2k), and allow the impact of various parameters such as atmospheric density to be transparently explored.Our model, like G2k, suggests fully-developed significant wave heights on Titan H_s = 0.2 U², where U is the windspeed (SI units): in dimensionless terms this is rather close to H_s = 0.2 U²/g, a rule of thumb previously noted for terrestrial waves (we find various datasets where the prefactor varies by ～2). It is noted that liquid and air densities affect the growth rate of waves, but not their fully-developed height: for 1 m/s winds wave amplitude reaches 0.15 m (75% of fully-developed) with a fetch of only 1 km, rather faster than predicted by G2k. Liquid viscosity has no major effect on gravity wave growth, but does influence the threshold windspeed at which gravity–capillary waves form in the first place.The model is used to develop predicted ranges for wave height to guide the design of the Titan Mare Explorer (TiME), a proposed Discovery-class mission to float a capsule on Ligeia Mare in 2023. For the expected maximum 1 m/s winds, a significant wave height of 0.2 m and wavelength of ～4 m can be expected. Assuming that wave heights follow Rayleigh statistics as they do on Earth, then given the wave period of ～4 s, individual waves of ～0.6 m might be encountered over a 3 month period.For predicted Titan winds at Kraken Mare, significant wave heights may reach ～0.6 m in the peak of summer but do not exceed the tidal amplitude at its northern end, consistent with the area around Mayda Insula being a tidal flat, while elsewhere on Kraken and Ligeia and at Ontario Lacus, shorelines may be wave- or tidally-dominated, depending on the specific location.     

西秦岭勉略带陆内构造变形研究

秦岭造山带勉略缝合带是古特提斯洋盆向北俯冲形成的华北与华南最后拼接带。这个主缝合带俯冲-碰撞过程中以由北向南的一系列韧性逆冲推覆构造为特征,形成由前泥盆系、泥盆-石炭系和蛇绿混杂岩等不同构造岩片叠置的复杂构造带,碰撞时代从245Ma一直延续到230Ma左右。最近,作者对勉略缝合带内发育的韧性和脆性左行走滑剪切变形进行了研究,结果表明这些顺造山带的左行韧性走滑剪切变形带的变形时代为223±2Ma,与碰撞后花岗岩所确定的碰撞后构造环境的起始时间(225Ma)一致,显示这些韧性走滑剪切变形带是勉略带陆内变形初期变形产物。亦即华北、扬子大陆碰撞之后很快就转入陆内变形阶段,并且是以顺造山带的侧向走滑位移为主要变形方式。勉略带内顺造山带的脆性左行走滑断层的发育,表明这种顺造山带的侧向位移过程从深部到地壳浅层是一致的。因此,大陆碰撞在直接碰撞之后很快转变为顺造山带的侧向走滑位移为主的陆内变形,这种位移可能表现为两个大陆碰撞后的相对走滑,或是碰撞带中强烈变形部分顺造山带的侧向挤出,从而消减了正向碰撞所造成的地壳缩短和增厚。     

内蒙古鸡冠山斑岩钼矿床成矿时代和成矿流体研究

内蒙古鸡冠山钼矿床是西拉沐伦钼成矿带上的典型斑岩矿床。矿床产于火山侵入杂岩中,矿化类型以细脉浸染状矿化为主。对矿床5件辉钼矿样品进行了铼-锇同位素分析,获得了151.1±1.3Ma的等时线年龄,表明成矿作用发生在晚侏罗世。成矿作用可划分为三个阶段:早阶段为石英-黄铁矿阶段,发育乳白色石英和粗粒浸染状黄铁矿;中阶段包括早期石英-多金属硫化物亚阶段和晚期石英-萤石-金属硫化物亚阶段;晚阶段为石英-碳酸盐细脉,穿切早、中阶段脉体和矿物组合。鸡冠山钼矿床流体包裹体岩相学研究表明,与成矿有关的包裹体主要有六种类型:富液相、富气相、含子晶多相、含CO2三相、纯CO2及纯液相包裹体。其中,早阶段以富气和富CO2包裹体为主,中阶段多种包裹体共存,晚阶段则主要为富液包裹体。冷热台显微测温和激光拉曼显微探针(LRM)成分分析结果表明,早阶段石英中原生包裹体的均一温度480℃,盐度最高66.75%NaCleqv,包裹体气相成分富含水和CO2,液相成分则以水为主,子晶矿物有石盐、黄铜矿以及指示氧化条件的赤铁矿等,同时也说明成矿流体是富含成矿金属元素的。中阶段早期石英中的流体包裹体均一温度为320～480℃,晚期石英和萤石中的流体包裹体的均一温度为180～320℃。中阶段流体盐度介于4.65%～56.76%NaCleqv。中阶段包裹体含石盐、方解石、黄铜矿、赤铁矿等子矿物,富气相、富液相与含子晶多相包裹体共存,且具有相近的均一温度,而盐度相差悬殊,指示流体发生了沸腾。晚阶段流体的温度降低至100～180℃,盐度则低于10.86%NaCleqv,流体包裹体成分主要为水。鸡冠山钼矿成矿流体演化从早至晚为:从早阶段高温、高盐度、高氧逸度、富CO2、富成矿物质以岩浆热液为主成矿流体,演化至晚期低温、低盐度、无子晶、贫CO2、以大气降水为主的流体。沸腾作用是鸡冠山钼矿形成的重要机制。     

Application of relative drought indices in assessing climate-change impacts on drought conditions in Czechia

The common versions (referred to as self-calibrated here) of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) are calibrated and then applied to the same weather series. Therefore, the distribution of the index values is about the same for any weather series. We introduce here the relative SPI and PDSI, abbreviated as rSPI and rPDSI. These are calibrated using a reference weather series as a first step, which is then applied to the tested series. The reference series may result from either a different station to allow for the inter-station comparison or from a different period to allow for climate-change impact assessments. The PDSI and 1–24 month aggregations of the SPI are used here. In the first part, the relationships between the self-calibrated and relative indices are studied. The relative drought indices are then used to assess drought conditions for 45 Czech stations under present (1961–2000) and future (2060–2099) climates. In the present climate experiment, the drought indices are calibrated by using the reference station weather series. Of all drought indices, the PDSI exhibits the widest spectrum of drought conditions across Czechia, in part because it depends not only on precipitation (as does the SPI) but also on temperature. In our climate-change impact experiments, the future climate is represented by modifying the observed series according to scenarios based on five Global Climate Models (GCMs). Changes in the SPI-based drought risk closely follow the modeled changes in precipitation, which is predicted to decrease in summer and increase in both winter and spring. Changes in the PDSI indicate an increased drought risk at all stations under all climate-change scenarios, which relates to temperature increases predicted by all of the GCMs throughout the whole year. As drought depends on both precipitation and temperature, we conclude that the PDSI is more appropriate (when compared to the SPI) for use in assessing the potential impact of climate change on future droughts.     

Identifying potential marine pests--a deductive approach applied to Australia

Introduced marine organisms continue to threaten coastal resources around the world. Many agencies rely on lists of potentially harmful species for risk assessment and to prioritise management responses to an incursion. This study outlines a deductive hazard assessment technique to identify potential marine pests that may arrive via ballast water and/or hull fouling. This technique is then applied in an Australian context to identify potential "next pests" for this region. An extensive literature review identified 851 introduced marine species from around the world. The following selection criteria were then applied to develop a next pest list: (a) the species has been reported in a shipping vector or has a ship-mediated invasion history; (b) the vector still exists; (c) the species is responsible for economic or environmental harm; and, (d) it is exotic to Australia or present in Australia but subject to official control. The selection criteria are transparent and consistent with other international and national biosecurity initiatives. Thirty three of the species identified in the initial literature review satisfied all four selection criteria. These species are described here together with their associated vectors and impacts.