气候变化情景下中国乡村振兴核心区人口预估及在干旱灾害影响评估中的应用

根据IPCC提出的共享社会经济路径(SSPs),本文以中国14个乡村振兴核心区为研究区,结合中国当前人口特征设定不同SSPs路径下本地化人口预估参数,采用人口—发展—环境(PDE)模型,预估2020～2040年人口变化特征.结合SSPs-RCPs情景下多模式的干旱评估结果,探讨未来乡村振兴核心区干旱暴露人口较基准期(1...     

Preliminary study on aftershock decay rate of the 2013 Ms7.0 Lushan earthquake

We obtained a catalog of early aftershocks of the 2013 Lushan earthquake by examining waveform from a nearby station MDS which is 30.2 km far away from the epicenter, and then we analyzed the relation between aftershock rate and time. We used time-window ratio method to identify aftershocks from continuous waveform data and compare the result with the catalog provided by China Earthquake Networks Center （CENC）. As expected, a significant amount of earthquakes is missing in CENC catalog in the 24 h after the main shock. Moreover, we observed a steady seismicity rate of aftershocks nearly in the first 10,000 s before an obvious power-law decay of aftershock activity. We consider this distinct early stage which does not fit the Omori law with a constant p （p - 1） value as early aftershock deficiency （EAD）, as proposed by previous studies. Our study suggests that the main shock rupture process is different from aftershocks＇ processes, and EAD can vary in different cases as compared to earthquakes of strike-slip mechanism in California.     

Preliminary investigation of seismic damage to two steel space structures during the 2013 Lushan earthquake

Severe damage to steel space structures is rarely reported when compared to other structural systems damaged during past major earthquakes around the world.Two gymnasiums of steel space structures in downtown Lushan County that were damaged during the 2013 M7.0 Lushan earthquake in China were investigated and the observations are summarized in this paper.Typical damage to these two steel space structures ranges from moderate to severe.Moderate damage includes global buckling and dislocation of bolted connections of truss members,and inelastic elongation of anchor bolts and sliding of pedestal plates of supports.Severe damage includes member fracture caused by local buckling,and fracture failure of anchor bolts and welds.The distribution of structural damage to these two structures is described in detail and future research opportunities are suggested.     

利用MapReduce进行批量遥感影像瓦片金字塔构建

在分析面向瓦片金字塔并行构建任务分解的基础上,提出了一种利用MapReduce进行批量遥感影像瓦片金字塔并行构建的方法.实验结果表明,该方法不仅在集群上快速、有效地解决了单机上难以解决的大规模批量遥感影像瓦片金字塔的构建操作,而且具有良好的可扩展性.同时,该算法可作为大规模遥感影像并行处理的基础框架,非常容易扩展到高效能影像特征提取、遥感影像融合以及影像增量计算等其他海量遥感影像处理任务中.     

基于无人机遥感和GIS技术的土地利用快速详查方法研究

分析了新型无人机遥感技术相对于传统遥感的先进性,并结合土地快速详查的任务需求,表明利用无人机遥感进行土地利用快速详查是可行的。根据无人机遥感数据的特征详细阐述了图像的后处理技术,提出了基于无人机遥感和地理信息系统（ GIS）技术的土地利用快速详查工作流程,重点研究了土地信息的提取,并分析了面向对象的遥感影像分类方法的优点。针对土地利用快速详查的要求,对土地利用数据库的构建做了深入分析,详细阐述了数据库的存储结构、时空数据模型和土地利用详查追溯三个方面,很大程度上避免了数据冗余问题,提高了数据库中有效信息的比重。研究成果可为新时期国土资源管理工作提供有益参考和借鉴。     

海洋沉积物微量元素地球化学特征对天然气水合物勘探的指示意义

天然气水合物与资源和全球环境变化等重大科学问题密切相关.前期关于甲烷渗漏区地球化学特征的研究主要集中于浅表层沉积物(<20 m),而浅层沉积物(>20 m)地球化学特征知之甚少.为探讨海洋浅层沉积物微量元素特征与天然气水合物勘探的相关关系,对南海神狐海域沉积物进行了4个站位的钻探取样,分析了样品主、微量元素和有机碳地球...     

The Second Modified Perpendicular Drought Index (MPDI1): A Combined Drought Monitoring Method with Soil Moisture and Vegetation Index

Since soil moisture and vegetation index are direct and important indicators for surface drought status, a new drought monitoring method (MPDI1) is developed in NIR-Red reflectance space. It is a combination of two satellite-derived variables—a soil moisture component using the Perpendicular Drought Index (PDI), and a vegetation component using the Perpendicular Vegetation Index (PVI). Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) image and in-situ ground observation are introduced to validate the accuracy of the proposed method. Results indicate that MPDI1 is highly consistent to the in-situ ground observation with the coefficient of determination (R²?=?0.49) between MPDI1 and 5–20 cm mean soil moisture, which is slightly higher than the coefficient of determination (R²?=?0.42) between MPDI1 and 10 cm soil moisture. Compared with drought indices such as PDI and the Modified Perpendicular Drought Index (MPDI), MPDI1 provides quite similar trends for bare soil or lower vegetated surface, but it demonstrates a better performance in measuring densely vegetated surface. This paper concludes that MPDI1 provides correct and sufficient information on surface drought status in soil-plant continuum, which appears to have robust available and great potential for surface drought estimation in China and other countries.     

刍议《重庆历史地图集·第一卷古地图》的设计思想

介绍了图集的基本情况及当前编纂出版历史地图集的不足,以此为基础提出了本图集内容选录的特点。重点对《重庆历史地图集·第一卷古地图》中涉及的内容、结构、文字符号化、版式及各元素设计思想作了全面的阐述,并将这些设计思想应用于本图集,取得了较好的效果。最后,总结了图集设计的创新点,为今后其他省市编制相关的图集作参考。     

21世纪黑河流域降水统计降尺度及预估北大核心CSCD

借助第五阶段国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)多模式集合数据、欧洲中期预报中心再分析资料及黑河流域站点观测记录等,检验了模式降水估计偏差,设计了3种降尺度方法,对2011~2100年模式集合预估降水做了降尺度偏差订正。结果表明,即使去掉模式气候飘移,在黑河流域的模拟或估计降水偏差依然较大。本文选用15个CMIP5模式集合做降水预估。依据贝叶斯模式平均(BMA)和多元线性回归(MLR)构造降尺度模型,其因子有700 hPa位势高度场、经向风和比湿等。检验表明,两种降尺度模型各有优缺点,BMA降尺度降水平均值精度较高,但方差和相关系数较低;MLR的方差和相关系数均较高,但在黑河下游极端干旱区或少雨季节易出现“负降水”偏差。在降尺度模型中加入模式降水因子后,BMA的降水方差和相关系数均有明显提高,MLR的负降水问题得到一定程度抑制。BMA模型在黑河上游最优,MLR在中、下游及整个流域最优。因此,选用BMA和MLR对RCP4.5情景下2011~2100年的降水预估做降尺度偏差订正,结果表明,经BMA和MLR降尺度后预估的整个黑河流域降水呈下降趋势,相对于1971~2000年参考期,流域前期(2011~2040年)、中期(2041~2070年)、后期(2071~2100年)降水下降率依次为−9.7%、−12.5、−12.1%,即前、中期降水明显减少,后期变化不大。其中上游降水有一个弱的增加趋势,其变化率依次为1.4%、1.6%、2.3%;中游降水呈明显减少趋势,其变化率依次为−16.3%、−21.4%、−22.6%;下游降水前期减少,中、后期明显增加,其变化率依次为−13.0%、4.2%、21.4%。该预估结果表明,随着全球气候暖化,黑河上游祁连山区降水会缓慢增加,但中游农耕区降水明显减少,流域水资源供需矛盾可能会进一步加剧。因此,黑河流域未来的分水方案及相关的生态、农业、经济等发展规划需要据此做一些调整,以适应未来气候和黑河流域水资源的可能变化。     

浅析吉林省浑江煤田构造控煤及构造样式

构造作用是控制煤矿床形成、演化和现今赋存状况的首要地质因素。煤田构造以研究煤盆地和煤层构造的几何形态、组合型式、分布规律、成因机制和发展演化进程为主要内容,以此服务于煤炭资源勘查和开发。