兴仁县雷电活动规律初步分析

兴仁县地处贵州省西南地区,海拔高度490～2 000m,属于典型高原山区多雷暴区域.文章就兴仁县雷暴活动时间分布及防雷减灾情况进行简要介绍.     

黑龙江省道路交通事故与气象条件分析

本文分析了黑龙江省2003～2005年的交通事故资料,得出黑龙江省交通事故的日、月际及季节变化特征,和交通事故的地域分布特点;通过气象资料分析,得出天气条件对交通事故的影响。     

基于MATLAB的主成分RBF神经网络降水预报模型

以前期500 hPa高度场、海温场为预报因子,采用径向基函数(RBF)神经网络与主成分分析相结合的方法,建立了广西中部5月平均降水预报模型。在5年独立样本的预测检验中,预测的平均相对误差、均方误差及平均绝对误差分别为18.12%、50.52和34.23。对比分析RBF神经网络与BP(Back Propagation)神经网络的预测结果,表明RBF神经网络预测结果更准确、精度更高。     

基于内涝模型的西安市区强降水内涝成因分析

利用西安市近10～40年降水资料、市政信息资料,采用统计学方法,分析了强降水内涝的成因.结果表明:短时强降水或过程量偏大的降水天气过程是引发西安市内涝的直接气象因素;排水能力的强弱是发生内涝关键因素;随着城市化的发展,极端雨强的强度及大于10 mm/h降水的总时次数均有上升趋势,强降水发生概率的提高加强了内涝灾害发生频率及强度,城市效应是内涝加强的主要原因.用西安市强降水内涝仿真模型来进行模拟试验表明:西安是一个内涝发生降水雨强临界值偏低的城市,小时雨强3 mm/h、13 mm/h是发生内涝、严重内涝的临界值,天气预报、雨情监测重点及市政防御关键部位是西北区.总体上缩小井距效果好一些.     

基于贝叶斯网络分类的遥感影像变化检测

遥感成像过程中,地面、大气等诸多要素的不确定性和波段之间的相关性等原因影响了分类精度,导致变化检测的不准确性。为了提高分类精度往往需要引入先验知识。贝叶斯网络是一种新的数据表达和推理模型,对数据没有严格的正态分布前提要求,通过动态地调整先验概率密度,能有效提高分类精度。以北京通州地区1996-05-29和2001-05-19两个时相的陆地卫星Landsat TM遥感影像为例,介绍了基于贝叶斯网络的分类算法,并在此基础上实现了两个时相遥感影像的变化检测。实验结果表明:基于贝叶斯网络分类算法的后分类比较变化检测方法是遥感影像变化检测的一种新的有效方法。     

A Study on the Long-term Spectral Variability of the Black-hole Candidate X-ray Binary Cyg X-1

Using the All-Sky Monitor (ASM, 1.5–12–kev) data of Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) from January 1996 to May 2005, we have made a detailed analysis of the correlation between photon-count rate and spectral hardness ratio HR2 (5–12 keV/3–5 keV) of the black-hole candidate X-ray binary Cyg X-1 in 3 energy bands, namely the A-band (1.5–3 keV), B-band (3–5 keV) and Cband (5–12 keV). By the study on the ASM data of 1-day time scale, we find: (1) When Cyg X-1 is in the soft state, the A-band photon-count rate and hardness ratio HR2 exhibit an anticorrelation, but in B-band and C-band there appears the positive correlation. When Cyg X-1 is in hard state, the photon-count rates in the A,B,C bands are all inversely correlated with the hardness ratio HR2; (2) No matter whether Cyg X-1 is in the soft state or the hard state, the hardness ratios HR2 and HR1 are always positively correlated. In addition, we have analyzed the “dwell by dwell” data of the ASM, and obtained the following interesting results: (1) In the period of MJD = 52600–52760 (while Cyg X-1 is in the hard state), the photon-count rates in the A-band and B-band are inversely correlated with HR2, but in the C-band there appears a relatively strong positive correlation; (2) During the hard state, a clear anticorrelation exists between the hardness ratios HR2 and HR1.     

The causality between the rapid rotation of a sunspot and an X3.4 flare

Using multi-wavelength data of Hinode, the rapid rotation of a sunspot in ac-tive region NOAA 10930 is studied in detail. We found extraordinary counterclockwise rotation of the sunspot with positive polarity before an X3.4 flare. From a series of vector magnetograms, it is found that magnetic force lines are highly sheared along the neu-tral line accompanying the sunspot rotation. Furthermore, it is also found that sheared loops and an inverse S-shaped magnetic loop in the corona formed gradually after the sunspot rotation. The X3.4 flare can be reasonably regarded as a result of this movement. A detailed analysis provides evidence that sunspot rotation leads to magnetic field linestwisting in the photosphere. The twist is then transported into the corona and triggers flares.