中国碳强度关键影响因子的机器学习识别及其演进

碳强度影响因子数量众多,通过在众多因子中评估其重要性以识别出关键影响因子进而解析碳强度关键因子的变化规律,是中国2030年碳强度能否实现比2005年下降60%~65%目标的科学基础。传统的回归分析方法对于评估众多因子的重要性存在多重共线性等问题,而机器学习处理海量数据则具有较好的稳健性等优点。本文从能源结构、产业结构、技术进步和居民消费等方面选取了56个中国碳强度影响因子指标,采用随机森林算法基于信息熵评估了1980-2014年逐年各项因子的重要性,通过指标数量与信息熵的对应关系统一筛选出每年重要性最大的前22个指标作为相应年度关键影响因子,最终依据关键影响因子的变化趋势划分了3个阶段作了演进分析。结果发现：1980-1991年,碳强度的关键因子主要以高耗能产业规模及占比、化石能源占比和技术进步为主;1992-2007年,中国经济进入快车道增长时期,服务业占比和化石能源价格对碳强度的影响作用开始显现,居民传统消费的影响作用在增大;2008年全球金融危机后,中国进入经济结构深化调整时期,节能减排力度大大增强,新能源占比和居民新兴消费的影响作用迅速显现。为实现2030年碳强度下降60%~65%目标,优化能源结构和产业结构,促进技术进步,提倡绿色消费,强化政策调控是未来需要采取的主要措施。     

近六百年来长江三角洲地区城镇空间与城镇体系格局演变分析

基于历史文献、古地图和现代遥感数据,引入历史学古代城镇形态复原方法,复原（提取）明代以来长江三角洲地区113座城镇7个时间断面（1461年、1820年、1930年、1970年、1980年、2000年和2010年）下的城镇边界,采用扩张速率、扩张效率、首位度指数和位序-规模法则,分析了近六百年来区域城镇空间与城镇体系等级规模演变格局。取得以下研究结果：\mathrm{①}研究时段内,区内城镇用地总规模由205.98 km²增加到6442.19 km²,扩大了31.27倍;城镇扩张经历了萌芽阶段（明清时期）、起步阶段（民国至改革开放前夕）、成长阶段（改革开放至2000年）和加速阶段（2000—2010年）,城镇扩张速率不断加快,但扩张效率有待提升;\mathrm{②}在城镇等级规模空间格局上,明清时期南京与苏州为区内的一级城镇,民国后,上海逐渐取代其地位,从五级城镇发展成为区域核心城镇,四级以上城镇主要集中在长江干流沿岸和太湖流域,五级以下城镇大多集中在安徽;城镇体系呈首位型分布,城镇首位度较高,且改革开放后的城镇首位度较明清与民国时期要高,不同等级规模城镇之间差距扩大,大城镇优势较强。近30年,长江沿岸城镇发展加速,苏锡常都市圈、南京都市圈等逐渐形成并快速发展。     

Selective feeding of bay scallop Argopecten irradians on phytoplankton community revealed by HPLC analysis of phytopigments in Bohai Sea,China

Understanding the feeding selectivity on phytoplankton by shellfish is currently a big challenge.In order to investigate the feeding behavior of bay scallop(Argopecten irradians)on phytoplankton,we compared its compositions of phytopigments in digestive glands with those in the surrounding seawater,and conducted five consecutive investigations between July and November 2016 in a bay scallop culture area along coast of Qinghuangdao City,northwest of the Bohai Sea,China.Phytopigments in four-size fractionated phytoplankton of seawater(micro-(20-200 μm);nano(L)-[10-20 μm];nano(S)-[2.7-10 μm],and pico-[2.7 μm])and digestive glands of A.irradians were examined to investigate the selective feeding of A.irradians.Results show that fucoxanthin and peridinin constituted the major part of taxonomically diagnostic carotenoids(TDCs)in the micro-and nano(L)-phytoplankton in seawater.Compared with total phytoplankton biomass of seawater(TPB,sum of the four sizes),a substantial decrease of fucoxanthin proportion to total DCs in digestive glands was observed while that of peridinin,19'-butanoyloxyfucoxanthin,alloxanthin and 19'-hexanoyloxy-fucoxanthin showed an obvious increase when those pigments were mainly confined to micro-sized phytoplankton(20-200 μm).However,zeaxanthin and prasinoxanthin were mainly confined to nano(s)-and pico-phytoplankton,of which the proportions in digestive glands were usually lower in TPB.The contribution of lutein to total DCs in digestive glands(with an average of 7.23%)increased compared with TPB of seawater(with an average of 0.63%)during all five sampling times.     

Analyses of egg size,otolith shape,and growth revealed two components of small yellow croaker in Haizhou Bay spawning stock

The geographic al variations in life history characteristic s of small yellow cro aker Larimich thys polyactis,caused by experienced different environmental conditions,have been observed in China seas.Previous studies based on spatial distribution,migration route,and body morphometrics suggested a complex stock structure.In this study,to clarify the source of a spawning stock,we investigated the reproduction strategy and inter-structure of the Haizhou Bay(HZB)spawning stock in the middle Yellow Sea from both egg survey and adult otolith increment analysis.Egg and adult samples were collected from three surveys during spawning season in 2013.Distinct spatial and temporal variations were detected in egg distribution and size,and otolith shape analy sis of adult fishes revealed two morphotypes with different increment growth using random forest cluster.The results indicate the existence of two components within the same spawning stock in HZB from different wintering grounds,and accordingly special protection should be required for this stock given the significance to maintain connectivity between adj acent subpopulations.     

Fish Assemblage Responses to a Low-head Dam Removal in the Lancang River

Dam removal is becoming an effective approach for aquatic biodiversity restoration in damming river in order to balance the aquatic ecosystem conservation with large-scale cascade damming. However, the effects of dam removal on fish communities in Asian mountainous rivers, which are dominated by Cypriniformes fishes, are still not well known. To determine whether dam removal on a mountainous river benefit restoration of fish diversity, we investigated the response of fish assemblage to dam removal using a before-after-control-impact design in two tributaries of the Lancang River(dam removal river: the Jidu River, and control river: the Fengdian River). Fish surveys were conducted one year prior to dam removal(2012) and three years(2013–2015) following dam removal. We observed rapidly and notably spatio-temporal changes in fish biodiversity metrics and assemblage structure, occurring in the Jidu River within the first year after dam removal. Overall, fish species richness, density and Shannon-Wiener diversity all increased immediately in above-and below-dam sites, and maintained a stable level in subsequent years, compared to unchanged situation in the control river. All sites in the Jidu River experienced shifts in fish composition after dam removal, with the greatest temporal changes occurred in sites below-and above-the former dam, resulting in a temporal homogenization tendency in the dam removed river. These findings suggest that dam removal can benefit the recovery of habitat conditions and fish community in Asian mountainous rivers, but the results should be further evaluated when apply to other dammed rivers since the dam age, fluvial geomorphology and situation of source populations could all affect the responses of fish assemblages.     

Species Abundance Distribution Patterns of a Toona ciliata Community in Xingdoushan Nature Reserve

With the goal of model fitting species abundance distribution patterns of the tree, shrub and herb layers of the natural Toona ciliata community in Xingdoushan Nature Reserve, Enshi Autonomous Prefecture, Hubei Province, we used the data collected from the field survey and employed different ecological niche models. The models tested were the broken stick model (BSM), the overlapping niche model (ONM) and the niche preemption model (NPM), as well as three statistic models, the log-series distribution model (LSD), the log-normal distribution model (LND) and the Weibull distribution model (WDM). To determine the fitted model most suitable to each layer, the fitting effects were judged by criteria of the lowest value of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Chi-square and the K-S values with no significant difference (P>0.05) between the theoretical predictions and observed species abundance distribution values. The result showed: (1) The fitting suitability and goodness of fit of the tree, shrub and herb layers by using the three ecological niche models were ranked as: NPM>BSM>ONM. Of the three statistical models, by accepting the fitting results of the three layers, WDM was the best fitting model, followed by LND. By rejecting the fitting tests of the herb layer, LSD had the worst fitting effect. The goodness of the statistical models was ranked as: WDM>LND>LSD. In general, the statistical models had better fitting results than the ecological models. (2) T. ciliata was the dominant species of the tree layer. The species richness and diversity of the herb layer were much higher than those of either the tree layer or the shrub layer. The species richness and diversity of the shrub layer were slightly higher than those of the tree layer. The community evenness accorded to the following order: herb>shrub>tree. Considering the fitting results of the different layers, different ecological niche models or statistical models with optimal goodness of fit and ecological significance can be given priority to in studying the species abundance distribution patterns of T. ciliata communities.     

Temporal Variations and Driving Factors of Cultivated Land Use Intensity in Shandong Province from 1980 to 2015

Based on the cost-income data of agricultural products and relevant statistical data, taking major grain crops and economic crops in the process of cultivated land use as study cases, we studied characteristics of the temporal variation of cultivated land use intensity and its composition in Shandong Province from 1980 to 2015, and then analyzed its main driving factors. The results showed that: (1) The total intensity of major crops in Shandong Province showed a rising trend from 919.73 Yuan ha^-1 in 1980 to 3285.06 Yuan ha^-1 in 2015, and the average annual intensity of economic crops was higher than that of grain crops. The labor cost and material cost of major crops both showed an increasing trend, but the material input was much higher than labor input for grain crops, while the labor input was much higher than material input for economic crops. (2) The labor intensity of major crops in Shandong Province showed a decreasing trend from 501.75 man-day ha^-1 in 1980 to 161.93 man-day ha^-1 in 2015. The labor intensity of grain crops was lower than that of economic crops and its decline rate was fast. On the contrary, the capital intensity showed an increasing trend from 518.33 Yuan ha^-1 in 1980 to 1159.95 Yuan ha^-1 in 2015. In the internal composition of capital intensity, the proportion of yield-increasing inputs such as seed, farmyard manure, fertilizer, pesticide and drainage and irrigation decreased gradually, while the proportion of labor-saving inputs such as agricultural machinery increased significantly. (3) The cultivated land use intensity in Shandong Province had significant negative correlations with the amount of agricultural labor and cultivated land area per capita. The primary direct driving factor was the net income per unit cost of major crops, but the time response lagged by 1-3 years. The main indirect driving factor was the reform of agricultural policy.     

大亚湾大鹏澳牡蛎养殖临近海域自养微微型浮游生物种群分布特征

于2013年5月到2014年6月,在大亚湾大鹏澳牡蛎区及邻近海域开展了为期14个月的采样调查,利用高效液相色谱(HPLC)法对表层水体中微微型浮游植物(0.7—2.7μm)光合色素进行测定,并应用色素化学分类软件CHEMTAX对自养微微型浮游生物(aototrophicpicoplankton,APP)功能类群进行分析。结果表明,该海域APP中共检出了15种光合色素,其中青绿藻素(Pras)和玉米黄素(Zea)是微微型色素中浓度最高的2种特征色素,均具有明显的季节变化特征:Pras主要出现在低温季节(牡蛎养殖期),而Zea主要出现在高温季节(非牡蛎养殖期)。CHEMTAX分析表明,大鹏澳海域APP最主要的类群是硅藻、蓝藻和青绿藻,而甲藻、隐藻、定鞭金藻、绿藻和金藻生物量较低。温度和营养盐浓度是影响大鹏澳海域APP的时空分布的重要因素,青绿藻主要出现在低温季节(主要在冬季牡蛎养殖期间),且其生物量与溶解无机氮呈显著正相关;而蓝藻则主要出现在高温季节,与温度呈显著正相关。另外,贝类养殖也是能够影响APP空间分布的重要因素,在大鹏澳海域牡蛎养殖期间,青绿藻生物量在养殖区明显高于非养殖海域。     

南海东北部陆架边缘第四纪高分辨率层序地层和沉积体系演化及其控制因素

The northeastern shelf margin of the South China Sea(SCS) is characterized by the development of large scale foresets complexes since Quaternary. Based on integral analysis of the seismic, well logging and paleontological data, successions since ～3.0 Ma can be defined as one composite sequence, consist of a set of regional transgressive to regressive sequences. They can be further divided into six 3 rd order sequences(SQ0–SQ5) based on the Exxon sequence stratigraphic model. Since ～1.6 Ma, five sets of deltaic systems characterized by development of wedge-shaped foresets complexes or clinoforms had been identified. High-resolution seismic data and the thick foresets allowed further divided of sub-depositional sequences(4 th order) of regression to transgression, which is basically consistent with published stacked benthic foram O-isotope records. Depositional systems identified in the study area include deltaic deposits(inner-shelf deltas and shelf-edge deltas), incised valleys, and slope slumping massive deposits. Since ～1.6 Ma, clinoforms prograded from the southern Panyu Lower Uplift toward the northern Baiyun Depression, shelf slope break migrated seaward, whereas the shelf edge of SQ0 migrated landward. The development of incised valleys in the continental shelf increased upward,especially intensive on the SB3 and SB2. The slumping massive deposits increased abruptly since SB2, which corresponds to the development of incised valleys. The evolution of depositional systems of continental slope mainly controlled by the combined influence of sea level changes, tectonic movements, sediment supply and climate changes. Since ～3.0 Ma, relative sea level of the northern SCS had been experienced transgression(～3.0 Ma BP) to regression(～1.6 Ma BP). The regional regression and maximum transgressions of the composite sequences were apparently enhanced by uplift or subsidence related to tectono-thermal events. In addition,climatic variations including monsoon intensification and the mid-Pleistocene transition may have enhanced sediment supply by increasing erosion rate and have an indispensable influence on the development of the incised valleys and 5 sets of deltaic systems since ～1.6 Ma.     

产新琼四糖的海洋微泡菌属AG1热稳定性β-琼胶酶的过量表达与鉴定

从微泡菌属AG1（Microbulbifer sp. AG1）克隆得到1302 bp大小的琼胶酶基因,该基因编码产物为一个成熟蛋白（413个氨基酸残基）外加一个信号肽（20个残基）。将不含信号肽片段的琼胶酶在E. coli BL21 （DE3）中进行了异源表达和纯化。使用琼脂糖作为底物,该重组琼胶酶的最适反应温度和pH分别为60℃和7.5。该重组酶表现出优良的热稳定性,在50℃和60℃下处理1 h,重组琼胶酶仍能分别保持67%和19%的残余酶活力。除了SDS,重组琼胶酶对于其他测试的抑制剂、去垢剂和尿素变性剂有着较好的抗性。利用薄层色谱和以对硝基苯-α/β-D-吡喃半乳糖苷为底物的酶活力分析结果表明,该重组琼胶酶为β型琼胶酶,它水解琼脂糖的主要终产物为新琼四糖,而且不同聚合度的酶解产物具有抗氧化活性。