Experiments with the Improved Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation over South China

In recent work, three physical factors of the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation (DSAEF_LTP model) have been introduced, namely, tropical cyclone (TC) track, TC landfall season, and TC intensity. In the present study, we set out to test the forecasting performance of the improved model with new similarity regions and ensemble forecast schemes added. Four experiments associated with the prediction of accumulated precipitation were conducted based on 47 landfalling TCs that occurred over South China during 2004-2018. The first experiment was designed as the DSAEF_LTP model with TC track, TC landfall season, and intensity (DSAEF_LTP-1). The other three experiments were based on the first experiment, but with new ensemble forecast schemes added (DSAEF_LTP-2), new similarity regions added (DSAEF_LTP-3), and both added (DSAEF_LTP- 4), respectively. Results showed that, after new similarity regions added into the model (DSAEF_LTP-3), the forecasting performance of the DSAEF_LTP model for heavy rainfall (accumulated precipitation ≥250 mm and ≥100 mm) improved, and the sum of the threat score (TS250 + TS100) increased by 4.44%. Although the forecasting performance of DSAEF_LTP-2 was the same as that of DSAEF_LTP-1, the forecasting performance was significantly improved and better than that of DSAEF_LTP-3 when the new ensemble schemes and similarity regions were added simultaneously (DSAEF_LTP-4), with the TS increasing by 25.36%. Moreover, the forecasting performance of the four experiments was compared with four operational numerical weather prediction models, and the comparison indicated that the DSAEF_LTP model showed advantages in predicting heavy rainfall. Finally, some issues associated with the experimental results and future improvements of the DSAEF_LTP model were discussed.     

Experiments of DSAEF_LTP Model with Two Improved Parameters for Accumulated Precipitation of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over Southeast China

The Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast model for landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) precipitation (DSAEF_LTP) utilises an operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for the forecast track, while the precipitation forecast is obtained by finding analog cyclones, and making a precipitation forecast from an ensemble of the analogs. This study addresses TCs that occurred from 2004 to 2019 in Southeast China with 47 TCs as training samples and 18 TCs for independent forecast experiments. Experiments use four model versions. The control experiment DSAEF_LTP_1 includes three factors including TC track, landfall season, and TC intensity to determine analogs. Versions DSAEF_LTP_2, DSAEF_LTP_3, and DSAEF_LTP_4 respectively integrate improved similarity region, improved ensemble method, and improvements in both parameters. Results show that the DSAEF_LTP model with new values of similarity region and ensemble method (DSAEF_LTP_4) performs best in the simulation experiment, while the DSAEF_LTP model with new values only of ensemble method (DSAEF_LTP_3) performs best in the forecast experiment. The reason for the difference between simulation (training sample) and forecast (independent sample) may be that the proportion of TC with typical tracks (southeast to northwest movement or landfall over Southeast China) has changed significantly between samples. Forecast performance is compared with that of three global dynamical models (ECMWF, GRAPES, and GFS) and a regional dynamical model (SMS-WARMS). The DSAEF_LTP model performs better than the dynamical models and tends to produce more false alarms in accumulated forecast precipitation above 250 mm and 100 mm. Compared with TCs without heavy precipitation or typical tracks, TCs with these characteristics are better forecasted by the DSAEF_LTP model.     

Assessing Disagreement and Tolerance of Misclassification of Satellite-derived Land Cover Products Used in WRF Model Applications

As more satellite-derived land cover products used in the study of global change,especially climate modeling,assessing their quality has become vitally important.In this study,we developed a distance metric based on the parameters used in weather research and forecasting(WRF) to characterize the degree of disagreement among land cover products and to identify the tolerance for misclassification within the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme(IGBP) classification scheme.We determined the spatial degree of disagreement and then created maps of misclassification of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectoradiometer(MODIS) products,and we calculated overall and class-specific accuracy and fuzzy agreement in a WRF model.Our results show a high level of agreement and high tolerance of misclassification in the WRF model between large-scale homogeneous landscapes,while a low level of agreement and tolerance of misclassification appeared in heterogeneous landscapes.The degree of disagreement varied significantly among seven regions of China.The class-specific accuracy and fuzzy agreement in MODIS Collection 4 and 5 products varied significantly.High accuracy and fuzzy agreement occurred in the following classes:water,grassland,cropland,and barren or sparsely vegetated.Misclassification mainly occurred among specific classes with similar plant functional types and low discriminative spectro-temporal signals.Some classes need to be improved further;the quality of MODIS land cover products across China still does not meet the common requirements of climate modeling.Our findings may have important implications for improving land surface parameterization for simulating climate and for better understanding the influence of the land cover change on climate.     

珠穆朗玛峰北坡山谷太阳辐射和大气的特征与分析

2006年5月27日～6月30日HEST2006大气科学实验对珠峰北坡山谷的辐射(总辐射、净辐射)和温、湿度、风等进行了综合观测.沿珠峰北坡山谷布设了3个观测站,3个测站的辐射、温度、风都表现出明显的日变化规律,它们在08:00或09:00(地方时,下同)达到极大值.3个测站总辐射和净辐射的日变化都七匕较一致.从日变化最大值出现的时间来看,各站的辐射通量早于气温,气温早于风速.3个测站中任意2站之间辐射(总辐射、净辐射)最大值之比与温度和风速最大值之比均比较接近.因辐射状况、地形结构、大气温度等不同,远离珠峰区域的风一天之内多次改变风向,靠近珠峰区域则24h都为南风.珠峰北坡山谷不同区域风向风速变化存在明显时差,南风强于北风,且持续时间长.研究表明,辐射能量对于珠峰北坡大气运动具有重要的驱动作用,是控制和改变其大气运动方式最基本、最重要的因子.净辐射在不同区域风向转变或风速变化过程中起着决定性的作用.     

Changes in Water Use Efficiency Caused by Climate Change,CO2 Fertilization,and Land Use Changes on the Tibetan Plateau

Terrestrial ecosystem water use efficiency(WUE) is an important indicator for coupling plant photosynthesis and transpiration, and is also a key factor linking the carbon and water cycles between the land and atmosphere. However,under the combination of climate change and human intervention, the change in WUE is still unclear, especially on the Tibetan Plateau(TP). Therefore, satellite remote sensing data and process-based terrestrial biosphere models(TBMs) are used in this study to investigate ...     

河北大茂山碘化银地面发生器增雪作业影响分析

利用常规气象资料、MICAPS资料和NECP/NCAR再分析资料,结合高斯模拟,分析了2012年11月10日唐县大茂山地基碘化银发生器增雪作业的作业条件。结果发现,此次天气背景为自西南向东北移动的冷涡云系,根据帕斯奎尔(Pasquill)稳定度分类法得出作业时间段大气处于中性层结状态;高斯模式模拟得出,有效的AgI浓度向上扩散范围高达3.0 km;作业点作业时段上空至3.2 km均处于上升气流区,计算出作业点发生器出口温度1.0℃。因冬季人工观测云底高度多为2.5~3.0 km,综合分析认为,该作业点的选址是合适的,此次作业条件较好,可以将催化剂输送到云中,起到催化作用。     

近50年火山喷发和太阳活动对我国气候影响的研究

利用特征向量分析与时序叠加分析和谱分析相结合的方法，分析了近50a来我国地面气温和降水场中火山喷发和太阳活动的气候信号，强烈的火山喷发导致全国大部分地区降温，喷发1a多以后降温最明显，并能持续约半年。除这个主信号以外，青藏高原、东南沿海和东北地区都可能出现较为复杂的温度变化，温度变化与太阳活动之间的联系更多地反映在二者的振荡关系上。在降水场中的火山信号较弱，表现为火山喷发后的秋冬季节南方地区降水偏多。在青藏高原积雪和深层地温的变化中，没有发现火山和太阳活动信号。     

An Optical Disdrometer for Measuring Present Weather Parameters

A new present weather identifier（PWI） based on occlusion and scattering techniques is presented in the study. The present weather parameters are detectable by the meteorological optical range（MOR） approximately up to 50 km and by droplets with diameters ranging from 0.125 mm to 22 mm with velocities up to 16 m s-1. The MOR error is less than 8% for the MOR within 10 km and less than 15% for farther distances. Moreover, the size errors derived from various positions of the light sheet by the particles were checked within ± 0.1 mm ± 5%. The comparison shows that the MOR, in a sudden shower event, is surprisingly consistent with those of the sentry visibility sensors（SVS） with a correlation coefficient up to 98%. For the rain amounts derived from the size and velocity of the droplets, the daily sums by the PWI agree within 10% of those by the Total Rain Weighing Sensor（TRwS205） and the rain gauge. Combined with other sensors such as temperature, humidity, and wind, the PWI can serve as a present weather sensor to distinguish several weather types such as fog, haze, mist, rain, hail, and drizzle.     

“一图”地籍信息管理系统

地籍信息管理是现代地籍发展方向,由于我国地域广阔,各地经济实力和管理人员素质差别大,地籍信息系统建设一直是国土部门重要工作和难题,本文结合多年生产和管理,开发了经济实用的小型地籍信息管理软件,为县级系统建设打个好基础,满足了日常变更需要。也为测绘系统作业提供了简便高效的工具[1]。本系统采用AutoCAD图元扩展属性技术,"一图"就是一张图把所有的权属调查和测量信息都记录下来。     

基于ArcGIS Engine的城市电网最短抢修路径的研究与实现

地理信息系统(GIS)自20世纪60年代开始发展至今,已经逐渐成为一门成熟的技术,其在电力、交通、环境等诸多领域的应用使地理信息系统被越来越多的用户所接受,成为人们工作、生活中的一个强有力的工具。空间数据分析是GIS进行空间数据操作以及处理过程中不可或缺的重要步骤。在电力管理系统中,空间数据分析一般包括:缓冲区分析、最短抢修路径分析、最优停电方案分析等。而这其中,最短抢修路径分析属于地理信息系统网络分析中的最短路径问题,是地理信息系统研究的热点,具有重大的实际意义。本文基于ArcGIS En-gine平台,利用某电业局配电网图,实现最短抢修路径的研究。