A cascade of magmatic events during the assembly and eruption of a super-sized magma body

We use comprehensive geochemical and petrological records from whole-rock samples, crystals, matrix glasses and melt inclusions to derive an integrated picture of the generation, accumulation and evacuation of 530 km³ of crystal-poor rhyolite in the 25.4 ka Oruanui supereruption (New Zealand). New data from plagioclase, orthopyroxene, amphibole, quartz, Fe–Ti oxides, matrix glasses, and plagioclase- and quartz-hosted melt inclusions, in samples spanning different phases of the eruption, are integrated with existing data to build a history of the magma system prior to and during eruption. A thermally and compositionally zoned, parental crystal-rich (mush) body was developed during two periods of intensive crystallisation, 70 and 10–15 kyr before the eruption. The mush top was quartz-bearing and as shallow as ~3.5 km deep, and the roots quartz-free and extending to >10 km depth. Less than 600 year prior to the eruption, extraction of large volumes of ~840 °C low-silica rhyolite melt with some crystal cargo (between 1 and 10%), began from this mush to form a melt-dominant (eruptible) body that eventually extended from 3.5 to 6 km depth. Crystals from all levels of the mush were entrained into the eruptible magma, as seen in mineral zonation and amphibole model pressures. Rapid translation of crystals from the mush to the eruptible magma is reflected in textural and compositional diversity in crystal cores and melt inclusion compositions, versus uniformity in the outermost rims. Prior to eruption the assembled eruptible magma body was not thermally or compositionally zoned and at temperatures of ~790 °C, reflecting rapid cooling from the ~840 °C low-silica rhyolite feedstock magma. A subordinate but significant volume (3–5 km³) of contrasting tholeiitic and calc-alkaline mafic material was co-erupted with the dominant rhyolite. These mafic clasts host crystals with compositions which demonstrate that there was some limited pre-eruptive physical interaction of mafic magmas with the mush and melt-dominant body. However, the mafic magmas do not appear to have triggered the eruption or controlled magmatic temperatures in the erupted rhyolite. Integration of textural and compositional data from all available crystal types, across all dominant and subordinate magmatic components, allow the history of the Oruanui magma body to be reconstructed over a wide range of temporal scales using multiple techniques. This history spans the tens of millennia required to grow the parental magma system (U–Th disequilibrium dating in zircon), through the centuries and decades required to assemble the eruptible magma body (textural and diffusion modelling in orthopyroxene), to the months, days, hours and minutes over which individual phases of the eruption occurred, identified through field observations tied to diffusion modelling in magnetite, olivine, quartz and feldspar. Tectonic processes, rather than any inherent characteristics of the magmatic system, were a principal factor acting to drive the rapid accumulation of magma and control its release episodically during the eruption. This work highlights the richness of information that can be gained by integrating multiple lines of petrologic evidence into a holistic timeline of field-verifiable processes.     

Modelling the DC electrical response of fully and partially saturated Permo-Triassic sandstone

Results from a laboratory investigation into the electrical properties of fully and partially saturated Wildmoor Triassic Sandstone have been modelled using the Archie, Waxman–Smits and Hanai–Bruggeman equations. The results demonstrate the limitation of using simple relationships to describe samples when the matrix resistivity ρ_r is not significantly greater than the saturating electrolyte resistivity ρ_w. In these situations Archie's parameters m and n are not accurately determined. Conversely, the more sophisticated Waxman–Smits and Hanai–Bruggeman models provide parameters that better describe the electrical properties of the rock and are able to identify heterogeneity between samples that would otherwise be missed. The ranges of values for matrix resistivity (49 < ρ_r < 161 Ωm) and cementation factor (1.6 < m < 2.1) obtained from the Hanai–Bruggeman model indicate significant variation between samples. Comparison of laboratory‐determined values for cation exchange capacity (0.06 < Q_v < 0.51 meq/mL) and those obtained from the Waxman–Smits model (0.09 < Q_v < 0.55 meq/mL) indicates a very strong correlation, suggesting this model is appropriate for describing the rock. There is good agreement between parameters modelled using fully and partially saturated versions of both the Hanai–Bruggeman and Waxman–Smits equations, indicating that the data are consistent with these models and that the assumptions made are appropriate.     

The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation

Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 °C increase by 2100. For the second scenario, uncertainties in the climate system imply that a global mean temperature increase of 3 °C or more cannot be ruled out. Our analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but adaptation will still be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which, from a global and purely monetary perspective, adaptation (up to 2100) seems more effective than mitigation. From the perspective of poorer and small island countries, however, stringent mitigation is necessary to keep risks at manageable levels. For agriculture, only a scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts.     

Performance of Goddard earth observing system GCM column radiation models under heterogeneous cloud conditions

We test the performance of the shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) Column Radiation Models (CORAMs) of Chou and collaborators with heterogeneous cloud fields from a single-day global dataset produced by NCAR's Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) with a 2-D Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) installed in each column. The original SW version of the CORAM performs quite well compared to reference Independent Column Approximation (ICA) calculations for boundary fluxes (global error 4 W m⁻² for reflected flux), largely due to the success of a combined overlap and cloud scaling parameterization scheme. The absolute magnitude of errors relative to ICA are even smaller (global error 2 W m⁻² for outgoing flux) for the LW CORAM which applies similar overlap. The vertical distribution of heating and cooling within the atmosphere is also simulated quite well with daily averaged zonal errors always less than 0.3 K/day for SW and 0.6 K/day for LW heating (cooling) rates. The SW CORAM's performance improves by introducing a scheme that accounts for cloud inhomogeneity based on the Gamma Weighted Two Stream Approximation (GWTSA).These results suggest that previous studies demonstrating the inaccuracy of plane-parallel models may have unfairly focused on worst case scenarios, and that current radiative transfer algorithms in General Circulation Models (GCMs) may be more capable than previously thought in estimating realistic spatial and temporal averages of radiative fluxes, as long as they are provided with correct mean cloud profiles. However, even if the errors of our particular CORAMs are small, they seem to be systematic, and their impact can be fully assessed only with GCM climate simulations.