A survey of census bureau population projection methods

Population projections methods of the U.S. Census Bureau draw upon several different traditions of forecasting: demographic accounting, judgmental, time series, deterministic, and explanatory. This paper reviews each of the forecasting traditions in population projections, describes the U.S. Census Bureau's current methods for national and state population projections, and proposes new hybrid approaches such as demographic-time series methods for national fertility projections and economic-demographic methods for state migration projections. Throughout the article, possible parallels with forecasting in other disciplines are noted.     

New constraints on Precambrian ocean composition

The Precambrian record of carbonate and evaporite sedimentation is equivocal. In contrast to most previous interpretations, it is possible that Archean, Paleoproterozoic, and to a lesser extent, Meso to Neoproterozoic seawater favored surplus abiotic carbonate precipitation, as aragonite and (hi-Mg?) calcite, in comparison to younger times. Furthermore, gypsum/anhydrite may have been only rarely precipitated prior to halite precipitation during evaporation prior to about 1.8 Ga. Two effects may have contributed to these relationships. First, sulfate concentration of seawater may have been critically low prior to about 1.9 Ga so the product mCa++ x mSO4-- would not have produced gypsum before halite, as in the Mesoproterozoic to modern ocean. Second, the bicarbonate to calcium ratio was sufficiently high so that during progressive evaporation of seawater, calcium would have been exhausted before the gypsum field was reached. The pH of the Archean and Paleoproterozoic ocean need not have been significantly different from the modern value of 8.1, even at CO2 partial pressures of a tenth of an atmosphere. Higher CO2 partial pressures require somewhat lower pH values.     

What can meteorites tell us about nebular conditions and processes during planetesimal accretion?

Analysis of the most primitive meteorites can yield detailed information about environmental conditions and physical/chemical processes in the earliest Solar System, including the nebular stage during which planetesimals were accreted. Such information pertains to time scales, thermal and chemical evolution, inhomogeneity and mixing, magnetic fields, and grain growth in the solar nebula. Nebular processes identified include evaporation, condensation, localized melting, and fractionation both of solids from gas and among different solids. Little direct evidence remains even in primitive meteorites of the actual accretion process. The absence of intrinsic factors capable of enhancing accretion among meteoritic constituents suggests that gravitational instabilities might have been important in promoting planetesimal accretion.     

Herbicide contamination and the potential impact to seagrass meadows in Hervey Bay, Queensland, Australia

Low concentrations of herbicides (up to 70 ng l(-1)), chiefly diuron (up to 50 ng l(-1)) were detected in surface waters associated with inter-tidal seagrass meadows of Zostera muelleri in Hervey Bay, south-east Queensland, Australia. Diuron and atrazine (up to 1.1 ng g(-1) dry weight of sediment) were detected in the sediments of these seagrass meadows. Concentration of the herbicides diuron, simazine and atrazine increased in surface waters associated with seagrass meadows during moderate river flow events indicating herbicides were washed from the catchment to the marine environment. Maximum herbicide concentration (sum of eight herbicides) in the Mary River during a moderate river flow event was 4260 ng l(-1). No photosynthetic stress was detected in seagrass in this study during low river flow. However, with moderate river flow events, nearshore seagrasses are at risk of being exposed to concentrations of herbicides that are known to inhibit photosynthesis.     

Biodegradation of petroleum hydrocarbons at low temperature in the presence of the dispersant Corexit 9500

Our study examined the effects of Corexit 9500 and sediment on microbial mineralization of specific aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons found in crude oil. We also measured gross mineralization of crude oil, dispersed crude oil and dispersant by a marine microbial consortium in the absence of sediment. When provided as carbon sources, our consortium mineralized Corexit 9500 the most rapidly, followed by fresh oil, and finally weathered oil or dispersed oil. However, mineralization in short term assays favored particular components of crude oil (2-methyl-naphthalene > dodecane > phenanthrene > hexadecane > pyrene) and was not affected by addition of nutrients or sediment (high sand, low organic carbon). Adding dispersant inhibited hexadecane and phenanthrene mineralization but did not affect dodecane and 2-methyl-naphthalene mineralization. Thus, the effect of dispersant on biodegradation of a specific hydrocarbon was not predictable by class. The results were consistent for both high and low oiling experiments and for both fresh and weathered oil. Overall, our results indicate that environmental use of Corexit 9500 could result in either increases or decreases in the toxicity of residual oil through selective microbial mineralization of hydrocarbons.     

Effects of chitin on microbial emulsification, mineralization potential, and toxicity of bunker C fuel oil

Bunker C, one of the most frequently spilled petroleum products in the US, is difficult to remove from oiled surfaces and is relatively recalcitrant to biodegradation; therefore, emulsification and biodegradability must be optimized before bioremediation can be considered a viable treatment option. Sand from a freshly oiled beach near Dutch Harbor, Alaska, was incubated at 10 degrees C with nutrients (Bushnell-Haas (BH)) or nutrients with crab shell chitin (BH-C). BH-C amendment resulted in greater numbers of bunker C emulsifiers and greater mineralization potentials for hexadecane, phenanthrene, and fluorene than with BH only. Compared to BH alone, mineralization potentials for bunker C also were higher in BH-C, with an estimated 8% of fuel oil mineralized after 6 weeks. Microbially emulsified oil was more toxic than in uninoculated controls (p < 0.05) as measured by Microtox assays. However, toxicity was significantly lower in BH-C than BH after 4 and 6 weeks incubation (p < 0.05).     

特殊角微导线在数字化地籍测图中的应用

对数字化测图中地物表示的直角性、平行性、共线性特点进行分析,基于控制测量的导线理论,给出了用微导线法处理的公式和方法。     

Transient heterogeneity in an aquifer undergoing bioremediation of hydrocarbons

Localized, transient heterogeneity was studied in a sand aquifer undergoing benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene bioremediation using a novel array of multilevel, in situ point velocity probes (PVPs). The experiment was conducted within a sheet-pile alleyway to maintain a constant average flow direction through time. The PVPs measured changes in groundwater velocity direction and magnitude at the centimeter scale, making them ideal to monitor small-scale changes in hydraulic conductivity (K). Velocities were shown to vary nonuniformly by up to a factor of 3 when a source of oxygen was established down-gradient of the petroleum spill. In spite of these local variations, the average groundwater velocity within the 7 m × 20 m sheet-piled test area only varied within ± 25%. The nonuniform nature of the velocity variations across the gate indicated that the changes were not due solely to seasonal hydraulic gradient fluctuations. At the conclusion of the experiment, microbial biomass levels in the aquifer sediments was approximately 1 order of magnitude higher in the oxygen-amended portion of the aquifer than at the edge of the plume or in locations up-gradient of the source. These data suggest that the transient velocities resulted, at least in part, from enhanced biological activity that caused transient heterogeneities in the porous medium.     

Large-scale oil-in-ice experiment in the Barents Sea: monitoring of oil in water and MetOcean interactions

A large-scale field experiment took place in the marginal ice zone in the Barents Sea in May 2009. Fresh oil (7000 L) was released uncontained between the ice floes to study oil weathering and spreading in ice and surface water. A detailed monitoring of oil-in-water and ice interactions was performed throughout the six-day experiment. In addition, meteorological and oceanographic data were recorded for monitoring of the wind speed and direction, air temperature, currents and ice floe movements. The monitoring showed low concentrations of dissolved hydrocarbons and the predicted acute toxicity indicated that the acute toxicity was low. The ice field drifted nearly 80 km during the experimental period, and although the oil drifted with the ice, it remained contained between the ice floes.