The data‐driven approach as an operational real‐time flood forecasting model

Accurate water level forecasts are essential for flood warning. This study adopts a data‐driven approach based on the adaptive network–based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast the daily water levels of the Lower Mekong River at Pakse, Lao People's Democratic Republic. ANFIS is a hybrid system combining fuzzy inference system and artificial neural networks. Five ANFIS models were developed to provide water level forecasts from 1 to 5 days ahead, respectively. The results show that although ANFIS forecasts of water levels up to three lead days satisfied the benchmark, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts were only slightly better in performance compared with the currently adopted operational model. This limitation is imposed by the auto‐ and cross‐correlations of the water level time series. Output updating procedures based on the autoregressive (AR) and recursive AR (RAR) models were used to enhance ANFIS model outputs. The RAR model performed better than the AR model. In addition, a partial recursive procedure that reduced the number of recursive steps when applying the AR or the RAR model for multi‐step‐ahead error prediction was superior to the fully recursive procedure. The RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure significantly improved three‐, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts. Our study further shows that for long lead times, ANFIS model errors are dominated by lag time errors. Although the ANFIS model with the RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure provided the best results, this method was able to reduce the lag time errors significantly for the falling limbs only. Improvements for the rising limbs were modest. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of heterogeneity on unsaturated hydraulic properties: (1) local heterogeneity and scale effect

Spatial heterogeneity is ubiquitous in nature, which may significantly affect the soil hydraulic property curves. The models of a closed‐form functional relationship of soil hydraulic property curves (e.g. VG model or exponential model) are valid at point or local scale based on a point‐scale hydrological process, but how do scale effects of heterogeneity have an influence on the parameters of these models when the models are used in a larger scale process? This paper uses a two‐dimensional variably saturated flow and solute transport finite element model (VSAFT2) to simulate variations of pressure and moisture content in the soil flume under a constant head boundary condition. By changing different numerical simulation block sizes, a quantitative evaluation of parameter variations in the VG model, resulting from the scale effects, is presented. Results show that the parameters of soil hydraulic properties are independent of scale in homogeneous media. Parameters of α and n in homogeneous media, which are estimated by using the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity curve (UHC) or the soil water retention curve (WRC), are identical. Variations of local heterogeneities strongly affect the soil hydraulic properties, and the scale affects the results of the parameter estimations when numerical experiments are conducted. Furthermore, the discrepancy of each curve becomes considerable when moisture content becomes closer to a dry situation. Parameters estimated by UHC are totally different from the ones estimated by WRC. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geochemical Characterization of Bolivian Formative Earthen Architecture by Wavelength‐Dispersive X‐ray Fluorescence

In this study, we employ wavelength‐dispersive X‐ray fluorescence (WDXRF) to characterize construction materials from Formative civic architecture (1000 B.C.E.–C.E. 400), ethnographic mudbricks, and off‐site controls from the Taraco Peninsula, Bolivia. The preparation of earthen construction materials for civic buildings can shed light on aspects of community development such as labor organization, resource management, and architectural technologies. We apply geochemical results to reconstructing how public buildings were made as communities moved toward socio‐political complexity in this region. However, there are few geochemical studies in the Andes, and little prior scientific analysis of earthen architecture. We therefore tested the efficacy of WDXRF for this region, and developed control materials. Our archaeological samples were selected from two Formative villages, Chiripa and Kala Uyuni. In this study, we performed WDXRF analyses on 63 archaeological and control samples including archaeological floors, walling, plasters, and mortars, as well as contemporary ethnographic walling and topsoils. Elemental signatures for 28 elements clearly distinguished the archaeological flooring, walling, plaster, and mortars from ethnographic and off‐site controls. More subtle variations were detected that distinguish study sites and the different material types. Laboratory‐calibrated multi‐element XRF effectively supports efforts to reconstruct the pathways to social complexity in the Titicaca Basin.     

Geoarchaeological Investigations in Mesoamerica Move into the 21st Century: A Review

Over the past thirty years, geoarchaeology has moved from the fringe to mainstream status within Mesoamerican archaeological investigations. This review focuses on works published since the year 2000. Five themes are identified as central to recent studies: (1) the correlation of environmental change and cultural history; (2) anthropogenic environmental impacts; (3) ancient land cover, land use, and diet; (4) archaeological prospection; and (5) provenance studies. These themes are often interwoven in the application of complex systems approaches that allow scientists to more accurately model the intricacies of ancient human–environment interactions.     

Variability in bedform morphology and kinematics with transport stage

Bedform geometry is widely recognized to be a function of transport stage. Bedform aspect ratio (height/length) increases with transport stage, reaches a maximum, then decreases as bedforms washout to a plane bed. Bedform migration rates are also linked to bedform geometry, in so far as smaller bedforms in coarser sediment tend to migrate faster than larger bedforms in finer sediment. However, how bedform morphology (height, length and shape) and kinematics (translation and deformation) change with transport stage and suspension have not been examined. A series of experiments is presented where initial flow depth and grain size were held constant and the transport stage was varied to produce bedload dominated, mixed‐load dominated and suspended‐load dominated conditions. The results show that the commonly observed pattern in bedform aspect ratio occurs because bedform height increases then decreases with transport stage, against a continuously increasing bedform length. Bedform size variability increased with transport stage, leading to less uniform bedform fields at higher transport stage. Total translation‐related and deformation‐related sediment fluxes all increased with transport stage. However, the relative contribution to the total flux changed. At the bedload dominated stage, translation‐related and deformation‐related flux contributed equally to the total flux. As the transport stage increased, the fraction of the total load contributed by translation increased and the fraction contributed by deformation declined because the bedforms got bigger and moved faster. At the suspended‐load dominated transport stage, the deformation flux increased and the translation flux decreased as a fraction of the total load, approaching one and zero, respectively, as bedforms washed out to a plane bed.     

Early solar system aqueous activity: K isotope evidence from Allende

The alkali element K is moderately volatile and fluid mobile; thus, it can be influenced by both primary processes (evaporation and recondensation) in the solar nebula and secondary processes (thermal and aqueous alteration) in the parent body. Since these primary and secondary processes would induce different isotopic fractionations, K isotopes could become a potential tracer to distinguish them. Using recently developed methods with improved precision (0.05‰, 95% confidence interval), we systematically measured the K isotopic compositions and major/trace elemental compositions of chondritic components (18 chondrules, 3 CAIs, 2 matrices, and 5 bulks) in the carbonaceous chondrite fall Allende. Among all the components analyzed in this study, CAIs, which formed initially under high‐temperature conditions in the solar nebula and were dominated by nominally K‐free refractory minerals, have the highest K₂O content (average 0.53 wt%) and have K isotope compositions most enriched in heavy isotopes (δ⁴¹K: ?0.30 to ?0.25‰). Such an observation is consistent with previous petrologic studies that show CAIs in Allende have undergone alkali enrichment during metasomatism. In contrast, chondrules contain lower K₂O content (0.003–0.17 wt%) and generally lighter K isotope compositions (δ⁴¹K: ?0.87‰ to ?0.24‰). The matrix and bulks are nearly identical in K₂O content and K isotope compositions (0.02–0.05 wt%; δ⁴¹K: ?0.62 to ? 0.46‰), which are, as expected, right in the middle of CAIs and chondrules. This strongly indicates that most of the chondritic components of Allende suffered aqueous alteration and their K isotopic compositions are the ramification of Allende parent‐body processing instead of primary nebular signatures. Nevertheless, we propose the small K isotope fractionations observed (< 1‰) among Allende components are likely similar to the overall range of K isotopic fractionation that occurred in nebular environment. Furthermore, the K isotope compositions seen in the components of Allende in this study are consistent with MC‐ICP‐MS analyses of the components in ordinary chondrites, which also show an absence of large (10‰) isotope fractionations. This is not expected as evaporation experiments in nebular conditions suggest there should be large K isotopic fractionations. Nevertheless, possible nebular processes such as chondrules back exchanging with ambient gas when they formed could explain this lack of large K isotopic variation.     

Unique achondrite Northwest Africa 11042: Exploring the melting and breakup of the L chondrite parent body

Northwest Africa (NWA) 11042 is a heavily shocked achondrite with medium‐grained cumulate textures. Its olivine and pyroxene compositions, oxygen isotopic composition, and chromium isotopic composition are consistent with L chondrites. Sm‐Nd dating of its primary phases shows a crystallization age of 4100 ± 160 Ma. Ar‐Ar dating of its shocked mineral maskelynite reveals an age of 484.0 ± 1.5 Ma. This age coincides roughly with the breakup event of the L chondrite parent body evident in the shock ages of many L chondrites and the terrestrial record of fossil L chondritic chromite. NWA 11042 shows large depletions in siderophile elements (<0.01×CI) suggestive of a complex igneous history involving extraction of a Fe‐Ni‐S liquid on the L chondrite parent body. Due to its relatively young crystallization age, the heat source for such an igneous process is most likely impact. Because its mineralogy, petrology, and O isotopes are similar to the ungrouped achondrite NWA 4284 (this work), the two meteorites are likely paired and derived from the same parent body.     

Strain analysis of a seismically imaged mass‐transport complex,offshore Uruguay

Strain style, magnitude and distribution within mass‐transport complexes (MTCs) are important for understanding the process evolution of submarine mass flows and for estimating their runout distances. Structural restoration and quantification of strain in gravitationally driven passive margins have been shown to approximately balance between updip extensional and downdip contractional domains; such an exercise has not yet been attempted for MTCs. We here interpret and structurally restore a shallowly buried (c. 1,500 mbsf) and well‐imaged MTC, offshore Uruguay using a high‐resolution (12.5 m vertical and 15 × 12.5 m horizontal resolution) three‐dimensional seismic‐reflection survey. This allows us to characterise and quantify vertical and lateral strain distribution within the deposit. Detailed seismic mapping and attribute analysis shows that the MTC is characterised by a complicated array of kinematic indicators, which vary spatially in style and concentration. Seismic‐attribute extractions reveal several previously undocumented fabrics preserved in the MTC, including internal shearing in the form of sub‐orthogonal shear zones, and fold‐thrust systems within the basal shear zone beneath rafted‐blocks. These features suggest multiple transport directions and phases of flow during emplacement. The MTC is characterised by a broadly tripartite strain distribution, with extensional (e.g. normal faults), translational and contractional (e.g. folds and thrusts) domains, along with a radial frontally emergent zone. We also show how strain is preferentially concentrated around intra‐MTC rafted‐blocks due to their kinematic interactions with the underlying basal shear zone. Overall, and even when volume loss within the frontally emergent zone is included, a strain difference between extension (1.6–1.9 km) and contraction (6.7–7.3 km) is calculated. We attribute this to a combination of distributed, sub‐seismic, ‘cryptic’ strain, likely related to de‐watering, grain‐scale deformation and related changes in bulk sediment volume. This work has implications for assessing MTCs strain distribution and provides a practical approach for evaluating structural interpretations within such deposits.     

Northwest Africa 11024—A heated and dehydrated unique carbonaceous (CM) chondrite

Based on the high abundance of fine‐grained material and its dark appearance, NWA 11024 was recognized as a CM chondrite, which is also confirmed by oxygen isotope measurements. But contrary to known CM chondrites, the typical phases indicating aqueous alteration (e.g., phyllosilicates, carbonates) are missing. Using multiple analytical techniques, this study reveals the differences and similarities to known CM chondrites and will discuss the possibility that NWA 11024 is the first type 3 CM chondrite. During the investigation, two texturally apparent tochilinite–cronstedtite intergrowths were identified within two thin sections. However, the former phyllosilicates were recrystallized to Fe‐rich olivine during a heating event without changing the textural appearance. A peak temperature of 400–600 °C is estimated, which is not high enough to destroy or recrystallize calcite grains. Thus, calcites were never constituents of the mineral paragenesis. Another remarkable feature of NWA 11024 is the occurrence of unknown clot‐like inclusions (UCLIs) within fine‐grained rims, which are unique in this clarity. Their density and S concentration are significantly higher than of the surrounding fine‐grained rim and UCLIs can be seen as primary objects that were not formed by secondary alteration processes inside the rims. Similarities to chondritic and cometary interplanetary dust particles suggest an ice‐rich first‐generation planetesimal for their origin. In the earliest evolution, NWA 11024 experienced the lowest degree of aqueous alteration of all known CM chondrites and subsequently, a heating event dehydrated the sample. We suggest to classify the meteorite NWA 11024 as the first type 3 CM chondrite similar to the classification of CV3 chondrites (like Allende) that could also have lost their matrix phyllosilicates by thermal dehydration.     

(U‐Th)/He zircon dating of Chesapeake Bay distal impact ejecta from ODP site 1073

Single crystal (U‐Th)/He dating has been undertaken on 21 detrital zircon grains extracted from a core sample from Ocean Drilling Project (ODP) site 1073, which is located ~390 km northeast of the center of the Chesapeake Bay impact structure. Optical and electron imaging in combination with energy dispersive X‐ray microanalysis (EDS) of zircon grains from this late Eocene sediment shows clear evidence of shock metamorphism in some zircon grains, which suggests that these shocked zircon crystals are distal ejecta from the formation of the ~40 km diameter Chesapeake Bay impact structure. (U‐Th/He) dates for zircon crystals from this sediment range from 33.49 ± 0.94 to 305.1 ± 8.6 Ma (2σ), implying crystal‐to‐crystal variability in the degree of impact‐related resetting of (U‐Th)/He systematics and a range of different possible sources. The two youngest zircon grains yield an inverse‐variance weighted mean (U‐Th)/He age of 33.99 ± 0.71 Ma (2σ uncertainties n = 2; mean square weighted deviation = 2.6; probability [P] = 11%), which is interpreted to be the (U‐Th)/He age of formation of the Chesapeake Bay impact structure. This age is in agreement with K/Ar, ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar, and fission track dates for tektites from the North American strewn field, which have been interpreted as associated with the Chesapeake Bay impact event.