青海都兰地区公元850年以来树轮记录的降水变化及其与北半球气温的联系

经过精确定年, 建立了青海都兰地区三个地点的祁连圆柏的树轮宽度年表, 重建了青藏高原东北部公元850年以来上年7月至当年6月年降雨量变化. 重建序列的方差解释量: 1385~2000A.D.为54.7%; 1099~1384 A.D.为50.5%; 850~1098 A.D.为45.7%. 整个千年降水序列呈现明显的3峰2谷的“W”型变化. 其中1571~1879 A.D.长达309年中, 降水偏少, 但是1880~2000 A.D.期间降水稳步上升. 20世纪是青藏高原东北部千年以来降水最高的世纪, 而1962~2000年的降水量是千年中最多的时期, 降水变率也是千年中最大的时期. 重建序列还揭示出在降水偏多的时候, 年际间降水变率大; 相反, 在降水偏少的时候, 年际间降水变率小, 在20世纪的明显增温时段, 降水显著偏高, 降水变率加大, 旱涝变化更加频繁. 本地区树轮宽度年际间的高频变化响应当地降水变化, 而在40年滑动平均后, 十年至百年尺度的低频信号在反映降水低频变化的同时, 也响应大范围气温变化, 它与7条北半球气温曲线变化十分一致, 在不同的时段上都显著相关, 如1852~1982 A.D.之间, 与大部分温度曲线的相关系数在0.9左右. 总体上, 都兰地区温度与降水同步变化, 温度低, 降水量少; 温度高, 降水多. 反映了在百年至千年尺度上都兰地区暖湿和冷干的气候组合模式. 40年滑动后的距平序列可以认为是青藏高原东北部地区分辨率为年的千年温度曲线.     

Data-moderate assessments of Cape monkfish Lophius vomerinus and west coast sole Austroglossus microlepis in Namibian waters

There is global interest in providing scientific advice on optimal harvesting of all commercially exploited fish stocks. Nevertheless, many commercially important stocks lack analytical assessments. Therefore, we evaluate a data-moderate stock assessment method: the stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT). The method was applied to two Namibian stocks: (i) the data-rich Cape monkfish Lophius vomerinus, where results are compared to a new data-rich assessment using a state–space assessment model (SAM); and (ii) the data-moderate west coast sole Austroglossus microlepis, which is an important bycatch species in the Cape monkfish fishery, but currently unassessed. The information available to the data-moderate assessment is total commercial catch, commercial catch per unit effort (CPUE), and survey CPUE. SPiCT and SAM gave largely consistent estimates of relative fishing mortality (F/F_MSY) and relative exploitable biomass (B/B_MSY) for the Cape monkfish stock, although with some discrepancies. Differences in the biomass estimates between the two assessments suggest that further investigation is required to understand the cause, and that some caution is necessary when considering the biomass of the stock. SPiCT shows that the west coast sole may be overexploited, although the confidence bounds were too wide for a firm conclusion. Similarity in the estimates of F/F_MSY for Cape monkfish in recent years, using SPiCT relative to SAM, likewise indicates the suitability of SPiCT for managing west coast sole.     

Early Carboniferous blueschist facies metamorphism in metapelites of the West Sudetes (Northern Saxothuringian Domain,Bohemian Massif)

The metamorphic evolution of micaschists in the north‐eastern part of the Saxothuringian Domain in the Central European Variscides is characterized by the early high‐pressure M1 assemblage with chloritoid in cores of large garnet porphyroblasts and a Grt–Chl–Phe–Qtz ± Pg M2 assemblage in the matrix. Minerals of the M1–M2 stage were overprinted by the low‐pressure M3 assemblage Ab–Chl–Ms–Qtz ± Ep. Samples with the best‐preserved M1–M2 mineralogy mostly appear in domains dominated by the earlier D1 deformation phase and are only weakly affected by subsequent D2 overprint. Thermodynamic modelling suggests that mineral assemblages record peak‐pressure conditions of ≥18–19 kbar at 460–520 °C (M1) followed by isothermal decompression 10.5–13.5 kbar (M2) and final decompression to <8.5 kbar and <480 °C (M3). The calculated peak P–T conditions indicate a high‐pressure/low‐temperature apparent thermal gradient of ～7–7.5 °C km^?1. Laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry isotopic dating and electron microprobe chemical dating of monazite from the M1–M2 mineral assemblages give ages of 330 ± 10 and 328 ± 6 Ma, respectively, which are interpreted as the timing of a peak pressure to early decompression stage. The observed metamorphic record and timing of metamorphism in the studied metapelites show striking similarities with the evolution of the central and south‐western parts of the Saxothuringian Domain and suggest a common tectonic evolution along the entire eastern flank of the Saxothuringian Domain during the Devonian–Carboniferous periods.     

Present And Past Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Simulations For Greenland And The Tibetan Plateau

Net annual mass balance was evaluated for Greenland and the Tibetan Plateau using the meteorological forcings from the NCEP reanalysis and two GCMs (FOAM1.0 and CSM1.4) for modern climate and for different time periods extending back to the beginning of the Holocene (11,000 years ago) for the climate models. The ice-sheet budget calculations, using the degree day methodology, were performed on a finer grid than the model output by interpolating monthly precipitation and surface temperature and correcting the latter to account for the GCMs smoothed topography. The computed net mass balance for Greenland in the present day is positive and it ranges between 290–300 mm water equivalent (w.e.)/year for the two models, values close to the NCEP estimate of 250 mm/year. The past climate simulations show that the Greenland mass balance has become slightly more positive since the beginning of the Holocene. The Tibetan Plateaus present-day area average net mass balance is negative and ranges between –1200 and –2000 mm w.e. /year for the two models, values bracketing the NCEP estimate of 1700 mm/year, although the balance is positive over small regions of the plateau consistent with the existence of small ice caps and glaciers. The calculated past mass balance shows an increasingly less negative value for FOAM from 11,000 years ago towards the present and expansion of the positive mass balance areas, mainly due to decreased snow ablation as the summertime insolation decreases with the changes in orbital forcing; in CSM the opposite trend occurs but changes are smaller and less systematic. The result from FOAM shows that the likelihood of ice sheets developing on the Tibetan Plateau may have increased since 11000 years ago, which is consistent with some glacial records.     

Comparison of simulated changes of climate in Asia for two scenarios: Early Miocene to present, and present to future enhanced greenhouse

We use a climate model (GENESIS) to simulate the changes in climate associated with two scenarios, one from the past and one from the future, with a focus on the Asian continent. The two scenarios are: (1) Early Miocene to Present—a period of uplift of the Himalayan–Tibetan plateau and of decreasing concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and (2) Present to Future Enhanced Greenhouse—a period of increasing concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. In the past climate scenario, the combination of uplift and decreased concentration of greenhouse gas causes the model to simulate widespread cooling and, primarily due to the effect of uplift, greatly increased precipitation in southern Asia and decreased precipitation in northern Asia. In the future climate scenario, the increased concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide causes the model to simulate widespread warming and, by comparison with the past climate scenario, relatively small changes in precipitation; the changes are generally towards increased precipitation, except in parts of northern China. The output of the climate model, along with the changed concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, is also used to calculate changes in biome distributions. Owing to the high concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide in both the past and future scenarios, relative to present, the simulations of Early Miocene biomes and Future biomes are somewhat similar—and both are very unlike the Present.     

Simulation of the evolutionary response of global summer monsoons to orbital forcing over the past 280,000 years

We describe the evolutionary response of northern and southern hemisphere summer monsoons to orbital forcing over the past 280,000 years using a fully coupled general circulation ocean-atmosphere model in which the orbital forcing is accelerated by a factor of 100. We find a strong and positive response of northern (southern) summer monsoon precipitation to northern (southern) summer insolation forcing. On average, July (January) precipitation maxima and JJA (DJF) precipitation maxima have high coherence and are approximately in phase with June (December) insolation maxima, implying an average lag between forcing and response of about 30° of phase at the precession period. The average lag increases to over 40° for 4-month precipitation averages, JJAS (DJFM). The phase varies from region to region. The average JJA (DJF) land temperature maxima also lag the June orbital forcing maxima by about 30° of phase, whereas ocean temperature maxima exhibit a lag of about 60° of phase at the precession period. Using generalized measures of the thermal and hydrologic processes that produce monsoons, we find that the summer monsoon precipitation indices for the six regions all fall within the phase limits of the process indices for the respective hemispheres. Selected observational studies from four of the six monsoon regions report approximate in-phase relations of summer monsoon proxies to summer insolation. However other observational studies report substantial phase lags of monsoon proxies and a strong component of forcing associated with glacial-age boundary conditions or other factors. An important next step will be to include glacial-age boundary condition forcing in long, transient paleoclimate simulations, along with orbital forcing.     

On the design of paleoenvironmental data networks for estimating large-scale patterns of climate

Guidelines are determined for the spatial density and location of climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) that are appropriate for estimating the continental- to hemispheric-scale pattern of atmospheric circulation (sea-level pressure). Because instrumental records of temperature and precipitation simulate the climatic information that is contained in certain paleoenvironmental records (tree-ring, pollen, and written-documentary records, for example), these guidelines provide useful sampling strategies for reconstructing the pattern of atmospheric circulation from paleoenvironmental records. The statistical analysis uses a multiple linear regression model. The sampling strategies consist of changes in site density (from 0.5 to 2.5 sites per million square kilometers) and site location (from western North American sites only to sites in Japan, North America, and western Europe) of the climatic data. The results showed that the accuracy of specification of the pattern of sea-level pressure: (1) is improved if sites with climatic records are spread as uniformly as possible over the area of interest; (2) increases with increasing site density-at least up to the maximum site density used in this study; (3) is improved if sites cover an area that extends considerably beyond the limits of the area of interest. The accuracy of specification was lower for independent data than for the data that were used to develop the regression model; some skill was found for almost all sampling strategies.     

The continental record of environmental conditions at 18,000 yr B.P.: An initial evaluation

The development of reliable paleoclimatic maps at a global scale requires data at the following three levels of analysis: (1) well-recorded observations of evenly positioned, well-dated geological evidence (Level I), (2) paleoclimatic estimates derived from this evidence by well-defined quantitative repeatable methods (Level II), and (3) maps synthesizing the estimates from several independent sources of geological evidence (Level III). Our paper describes much of the currently available paleoclimatic data from unglaciated terrestrial areas at ca. 18,000 yr B.P. and illustrates the quantity and quality of the data at both the Level I and the Level II stages of analysis. Although the scarcity of well-dated evidence for this time period precluded any major Level III syntheses of the information, comparisons were drawn where possible between the geological evidence and the climatic conditions simulated by general-circulation model experiments of Gates, 1976a, Gates, 1976b and Manabe and Hahn (1977). Of the more than 320 sites with data from 18,000 yr B.P., only 65 are well-dated with bracketing dates within the interval of 23,000 to 13,000 yr B.P., whereas about 100 are undated or poorly dated. We concentrated our survey on palynological and paleobotanical evidence and also thoroughly reviewed the evidence for water levels in lakes at 18,000 yr B.P. In areas with few of these sources of evidence, data on former snowlines, periglacial features, and eolian deposits were included, but the survey of these data is far from complete. Maps of the assembled data reveal the consistency of the paleoclimatic estimates in “data-rich” areas and also show which areas required additional information. The maps show that conditions were colder than present at 18,000 yr B.P. for all sites with temperature estimates. Estimated temperature depressions varied from ca. 1° to 12°C or more, depending on the location of the sample, the type of geological evidence, and the method of temperature estimation. Interpreted hydrological conditions were more variable spatially than the temperature estimates. The southwestern U.S. was moister than present, whereas the southeast may have been drier. Europe and the northern Mediterranean across to Afghanistan were drier than present, but northwest Africa was wetter. Australia was mainly drier than present, but several sites there as well as in Africa show significant climatic changes between 21,000 and 16,000 yr B.P. This latter evidence suggests that considerable variability may have occurred during the several thousand-year period centered on 18,000 yr B.P. Accurate time control is therefore required for the geological data used to study the climate dynamics of 18,000 yr ago. Large portions of South America and Asia as well as significant portions of the other continents lack the data base, or at least the well-dated base, required to define the 18,000 yr B.P. climate. In the few areas where comparisons were made with the Ice Age climates simulated by general-circulation models, general agreement existed between the geological evidence and the model simulations. Many critical comparisons were thwarted, however, by the lack of model simulations for all seasons at 18,000 yr B.P. Difficulty in validating precipitation anomalies in the tropics also arose because surface-albedo values, which are a vital input to the general circulation models, are estimated from the same evidence that is used to validate the results of the models.