From models to performance assessment: the conceptualization problem

Today, models are ubiquitous tools for ground water analyses. The intent of this paper is to explore philosophically the role of the conceptual model in analysis. Selection of the appropriate conceptual model is an a priori decision by the analyst. Calibration is an integral part of the modeling process. Unfortunately a wrong or incomplete conceptual model can often be adequately calibrated; good calibration of a model does not ensure a correct conceptual model. Petroleum engineers have another term for calibration; they refer to it as history matching. A caveat to the idea of history matching is that we can make a prediction with some confidence equal to the period of the history match. In other words, if we have matched a 10-year history, we can predict for 10 years with reasonable confidence; beyond 10 years the confidence in the prediction diminishes rapidly. The same rule of thumb applies to ground water model analyses. Nuclear waste disposal poses a difficult problem because the time horizon, 1000 years or longer, is well beyond the possibility of the history match (or period of calibration) in the traditional analysis. Nonetheless, numerical models appear to be the tool of choice for analyzing the safety of waste facilities. Models have a well-recognized inherent uncertainty. Performance assessment, the technique for assessing the safety of nuclear waste facilities, involves an ensemble of cascading models. Performance assessment with its ensemble of models multiplies the inherent uncertainty of the single model. The closer we can approach the idea of a long history with which to match the models, even models of nuclear waste facilities, the more confidence we will have in the analysis (and the models, including performance assessment). This thesis argues for prolonged periods of observation (perhaps as long as 300 to 1000 years) before a nuclear waste facility is finally closed.     

Relationship between structures of substituted indolic compounds and their degradation by marine anaerobic microorganisms

Degradation of selected indolic compounds including indole, 1-methylindole, 2-methylindole, and 3-methylindole was assessed under methanogenic and sulfate-reducing conditions using the serum-bottle anaerobic technique and marine sediment from Victoria Harbour, Hong Kong as an inoculum. Our results showed that indole degradation was achieved in 28 days by a methanogenic consortium and 35 days by a sulfate-reducing consortium. During degradation under both conditions, two intermediates were isolated, purified and identified as oxindole and isatin (indole-2,3-dione) suggesting that both methanogenic and sulfate-reducing bacteria use an identical degradation pathway. Degradation processes followed two steps of oxidation accomplished by hydroxylation and then dehydrogenation at 2- and then 3-position sequentially prior to the cleavage of the pyrrole ring between 2- and 3-positions. However, none of 1-methylindole or 2-methylindole was degraded under any conditions. 3-Methylindole (3-methyl-1H-indole, skatole) was transformed under methanogenic conditions and mineralized only under sulfate-reducing conditions. It is clear that methyl substitution on 1- or 2-position inhibits the initial attack by hydroxylation enzymes making them more persistent in the environment and posing longer toxic impact.     

二滩水电站地震遥测台网持续时间震级的研制

利用二滩水电站地震遥测台网的速度量和位移量观测记录,收集了震级ＭＬ为０．４￣５．４的４６０次地震（Δ〈２１０ｋｍ）的振动持续时间３５００多条,制作了该台网的持续时间震级公式和便查表。在方法上,不同于通常的按一次或两次曲线拟合,而采取计算机自动分段按折线拟合的方法,以阻尼最小二乘法完成其计算;在资料上,先分台制作８个子台的持续时间震级公式,在此基础上选择仪器、台基及公式中参数相近的子台,制作了适用于     

21世纪的原油生产与替代能源预测

为了保证随着世界人口增长和经济膨胀所需的能源供给量,必须预测原油的生产率和最终开采量,以明智地部署和采取适宜的行动。原油能够满足日益增长的需求,直到达到世界最高产量。由于常规油产量的下降而造成的能源不足将通过扩大大煤、天然气、非常规油（从焦油砂、重油与油磁岩中提炼）、核动力与水力发电、可再生能源（太阳、风和地热）的生产来填补。根据目前的估计,预测石油产量呈下降趋势,美国常规原油的最终开采量为３２９     

Magnetic cleansing of weathered/tarry oiled feathers--the role of pre-conditioners

Iron powder has previously been demonstrated to be effective in the removal, via magnetic harvesting, of a wide variety of oil contaminants from feathers and plumage. This study investigates the efficacy of magnetic cleansing for the removal from feathers of tarry contamination that has been allowed to weather. Clusters of feathers from Mallard duck (Anas platyrhnchos) and Little Penguin (Eudyptula minor) were completely immersed in a tarry contaminant and allowed to weather from one to fourteen days. The contaminant was removed using a magnetic cleansing protocol and the removal efficacy assessed gravimetrically. For one, seven and fourteen days of weathering, a final removal (after fourteen treatments) of more than 99% and 97% was achieved for duck feathers and penguin feathers, respectively. Repeating the experiments (for a seven-day weathering period) for both duck and penguin feathers, with the judicious application of a pre-conditioner (olive oil), further improved removal efficacy. A convenient method to screen for improved pre-conditioning agents is suggested.     

大桥水库地震遥测台网持续时间震级的研制

由于大桥水库地震台网各子台台基和地下结构的特殊性, 造成震级计算上的较大偏差。为此, 利用该台网各子台同一型号地震仪的垂直向速度量记录, 测量了震级为０５ ～５４ 的４６２ 次地震的振动持续时间, 制作了该台网的持续时间震级公式和便查表。在方法上, 不同于通常的按一次或二次曲线的拟合, 而采取计算机自动分段按折线拟合的方法, 以阻尼最小二乘法完成其计算。先进行分台拟合, 比较异同之后, 合并数据再拟合, 最后给出了适宜于鲁坝、瓦吉木两台和大石头、凉风岗、瓦坡支和彝海子４ 个台使用的两套平均持续时间公式和便查表, 以供大桥水库地震台网测震分析使用。     

Higher order analytical solutions of water table fluctuations in coastal aquifers

The groundwater response of coastal aquifers to tidal forcing is described by Laplace's equation coupled with the nonlinear phreatic-free surface boundary condition. Here we describe fluctuations in the water table using two small parameters, extending previous work by proposing an ansatz to compute higher order, semi-analytical solutions. The new solutions are compared with known lower order solutions. The relative difference between the linear solution and higher order solutions can reach up to 30% of the linear solution for shallow beaches. The new solutions exhibit a reduction in the over height of the groundwater fluctuations compared with the lower order solutions. In addition, the super elevation of the water table, both near shore and as the aquifer tends landward, is examined with the inclusion of higher order terms.     

Reducing dissolved inorganic nitrogen in surface runoff water from sugarcane production systems

Nitrogen (N) lost from farms, especially as the highly bioavailable dissolved inorganic form, may be damaging Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). As sugarcane is the dominant cropping system in GBR catchments, its N management practises are coming under increasing scrutiny. This study measured dissolved inorganic N lost in surface runoff water and sugarcane productivity over 3 years. The experiment compared the conventional fertiliser N application rate to sugarcane (average 180kg N/ha/year) and a rate based on replacing N exported in the previous crop (average 94kg N/ha/year). Dissolved inorganic N losses in surface water were 72%, 48% and 66% lower in the three monitored years in the reduced N fertiliser treatment. There was no significant difference in sugarcane yield between the two fertiliser N treatments, nor any treatment difference in soil mineral N - both of these results are indicators of the sustainability of the lower fertiliser N applications.     

紫坪铺水库地震监测预测

紫坪铺水库微震台网已经运行逾6年,强震台网已经运行逾3年,水库蓄水逾4年。2006年10月水磨突发ML1.4级微小地震群,库区及附近和库坝区地震活跃,依据监测研究较准确预测了2006年11月至2007年2月的水磨ML2.5级地震群。研究认为ML2.5级地震群是蓄水初期诱发的一些浅表卸荷型或岩溶塌陷型小地震。2008年5月12日汶川8级特大天然地震发生在微震台网监测范围内,水库微震台网和强震台阵的运行正常,为政府抗震救灾有效决策提供了科学依据,为稳定社会发挥了作用。