It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.     

Experimental Na/K exchange between alkali feldspar and an NaCl–KCl salt melt: chemically induced fracturing and element partitioning

The exchange of Na⁺ and K⁺ between alkali feldspar and a NaCl–KCl salt melt has been investigated experimentally. Run conditions were at ambient pressure and 850 °C as well as 1,000 °C. Cation exchange occurred by interdiffusion of Na⁺ and K⁺ on the feldspar sub-lattice, while the Si–Al framework remained unaffected. Due to the compositional dependence of the lattice parameters compositional heterogeneities resulting from Na⁺/K⁺ interdiffusion induced coherency stress and associated fracturing. Depending on the sense of chemical shift, different crack patterns developed. For the geometrically most regular case that developed when potassic alkali feldspar was shifted toward more sodium-rich compositions, a prominent set of cracks corresponding to tension cracks opened perpendicular to the direction of maximum tensile stress and did not follow any of the feldspar cleavage planes. The critical stress needed to initiate fracturing in a general direction of the feldspar lattice was estimated at ≤0.35 GPa. Fracturing provided fast pathways for penetration of salt melt or vapor into grain interiors enhancing overall cation exchange. The Na/K partitioning between feldspar and the salt melt attained equilibrium values in the exchanged portions of the grains allowing for extraction of the alkali feldspar mixing properties.     

Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500�C2100: 600?years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands

In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESMs) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005?C2100) are being provided by four Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams to be used as input to the ESMs for future carbon-climate projections (Moss et al. 2010). The diversity of approaches and requirements among IAMs and ESMs for tracking land-use change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates to future projections. Here, a harmonized set of land-use scenarios are presented that smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land use with future projections, in the format required by ESMs. The land-use harmonization strategy estimates fractional land-use patterns and underlying land-use transitions annually for the time period 1500?C2100 at 0.5°?×?0.5° resolution. Inputs include new gridded historical maps of crop and pasture data from HYDE 3.1 for 1500?C2005, updated estimates of historical national wood harvest and of shifting cultivation, and future information on crop, pasture, and wood harvest from the IAM implementations of the RCPs for the period 2005?C2100. The computational method integrates these multiple data sources, while minimizing differences at the transition between the historical reconstruction ending conditions and IAM initial conditions, and working to preserve the future changes depicted by the IAMs at the grid cell level. This study for the first time harmonizes land-use history data together with future scenario information from multiple IAMs into a single consistent, spatially gridded, set of land-use change scenarios for studies of human impacts on the past, present, and future Earth system.     

A climate-isotope regression model with seasonally-varying and time-integrated relationships

This study investigates multivariable and multiscalar climate-??¹⁸O relationships, through the use of statistical modeling and simulation. Three simulations, of increasing complexity, are used to generate time series of daily precipitation ??¹⁸O. The first simulation uses a simple local predictor (daily rainfall amount). The second simulation uses the same local predictor plus a larger-scale climate variable (a daily NAO index), and the third simulation uses the same local and non-local predictors, but with varying seasonal effect. Since these simulations all operate at the daily timescale, they can be used to investigate the climate-??¹⁸O patterns that arise at daily-interannual timescales. These simulations show that (1) complex links exist between climate-??¹⁸O relationships at different timescales, (2) the short-timescale relationships that underlie monthly predictor-??¹⁸O relationships can be recovered using only monthly ??¹⁸O and daily predictor variables, (3) a comparison between the simulations and observational data can elucidate the physical processes at work. The regression models developed are then applied to a 2-year dataset of monthly precipitation ??¹⁸O from Dublin and compared with event-scale data from the same site, which illustrates that the methodology works, and that the third regression model explains about 55% of the variance in ??¹⁸O at this site. The methodology introduced here can potentially be applied to historic monthly ??¹⁸O data, to better understand how multiple-integrated influences at short timescales give rise to climate-??¹⁸O patterns at monthly-interannual timescales.     

Energy use, climate change and folk psychology: Does sustainability have a chance? Results from a qualitative study in five European countries

Citizens’ support for policies that aim to curb carbon emissions and energy use is often seen as informed by their values, attitudes and perceptions of the environmental problem in question. We argue that we also need to understand how people conceptualise policies and the governance approaches underpinning them to be able to judge the likely acceptance of policy change.In this study, we draw on qualitative interviews (n = 202) from five European countries to explore citizens’ views on governance approaches to stimulate behavioural change in the field of resource use, including regulations, price changes, collective action, technological change and education.We found that many of our interviewees referred to generalised characteristics of humankind and contemporary society to back up their arguments for or against specific governance approaches. In particular, many interviewees concurred that people in general were so self-centred, driven by habit and money- and consumption-oriented that only strict regulations, drastic price changes and technological innovation could possibly achieve widespread behavioural change. As a consequence, such ‘folk psychologies’ can have substantial impact not only on public acceptance, but also on the success of policy measures that aim to reduce citizens’ resource use.     

The first definite record of a Valanginian ichthyosaur and its implications on the evolution of post-Liassic Ichthyosauria

A complete ichthyosaur rostrum, with 124 associated teeth, was recently discovered in Laux-Montaux locality, department of Drôme, southeastern France. The associated belemnites and ammonites indicate a late Valanginian age (Neocomites peregrinus Zone, Olcostephanus nicklesi Subzone) for this fossil, which consequently represents the first diagnostic ichthyosaur ever reported from Valanginian strata. This specimen also represents the first occurrence of Aegirosaurus outside the Tithonian (Upper Jurassic) lithographic limestones of Bavaria (southern Germany). Tooth morphology and wear pattern suggest that Aegirosaurus belonged to the “Pierce II/ Generalist” feeding guild, which was hitherto not represented in post-Liassic ichthyosaurs. Most Late Jurassic ichthyosaurs actually crossed the Jurassic-Cretaceous boundary.     

It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.     

Gaps in cubic closest packing: from MgO via spinel to the pharmacosiderite crystal structure type

Numerous ordered defect structures are known that are related to the sodium chloride (or MgO) structure type, thus they are basically cubic closest packed (ccp) arrangements with vacancies. For example the NbO type is an MgO type in which one quarter each of the anions and the cations are missing compared to the ccp in such a way that both anions and cations are in square-planar coordination. In spinel, Al₂MgO₄, one half of the octahedrally coordinated cations are missing compared with the MgO type and only one eighth of the tetrahedrally coordinated sites within the ccp are occupied. What these cases have in common is that all these derivatives are rather dense. This is different in pharmacosiderite, K[Fe₄(OH)₄As₃O₁₂]. 6 to 7H₂O, where one half of the anion positions, three quarters of the octahedral sites and five eighth of the tetrahedral sites remain vacant, compared to the spinel type. Pharmacosiderite is a wide open porous structure with zeolitic properties. We are illustrating these relationships using a Bärnighausen symmetry tree and by tables relating the various structure types to each other.     

A data exploration framework for validation and setup of hydrological models

Over the course of hydrological research projects often a large number of heterogeneous data sets are acquired from sources as diverse as boreholes, gauging stations or satellite imagery. This data then need to be integrated into models for the simulation of hydrological processes. We propose a framework for exploration of geoscientific data and visually guided preparation of such models. Data sets from a large number of sources can be imported, combined and validated to avoid potential problems due to artefacts or inconsistencies between data sets in a subsequent simulation. Boundary conditions and domain discretisations for surface and subsurface models can be created and tested regarding criteria indicating possible numerical instabilities. All data sets including simulation results can be integrated into a user-controlled 3D scene and aspects of the data can be enhanced using a number of established visualisation techniques including thresholding and user-defined transfer functions. We present the application of this framework for the preparation of a model for simulation of groundwater flow in a river catchment in southwest Germany investigated in the scope of the WESS project.     

Mechanical intrusion models and their implications for the possibility of magma-driven swarms in NW Bohemia Region

Earthquake swarms are often assumed to be caused by magmatic or fluid intrusions, where the stress changes in the vicinity of the intrusion control the position, strength and rate of seismicity. Fracture mechanical models of natural intrusions or man-made hydrofractures pose constraints on orientation, magnitude, shape and growing rate of fractures and can be used to estimate stress changes in the vicinity of the intrusions. Although the idea of intrusion-induced seismicity is widely accepted, specific comparisons of seismicity patterns with fracture models of stress changes are rarely done. The goal of the study is to review patterns of intrusion-induced earthquake swarms in comparison to the observations of the swarm in NW Bohemia in 2000. We analyse and discuss the theoretical 3D shape of intrusions under mixed mode loading and apparent buoyancy. The aspect ratio and form of the intrusion is used to constrain parameters of the fluid, the surrounding rock and stress. We conclude that the 2000 NW Bohemia swarm could have been driven by a magmatic intrusion. The intrusion was, however, inclined to the maximal principal stress and caused shear displacement additional to opening. We estimate that the density diference between magma and rock was small. The feeding reservoir was possibly much larger than the area affected from earthquakes and may be a vertical dike beneath the swarm region.